Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.UPDATE...

...CONVECTIVE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD IS EXPECTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  A 15Z SPECIAL RAOB IS IN THROUGH 400 MB HAS BEEN
ANALYZED.

MIXED LAYER INHIBITION WAS ERODED TO 25 J/KG.  THE ONE SURPRISING
DETAIL ABOUT THE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL OZARKS AIRMASS WAS THAT LOW
LEVEL CAPE VALUES UP TO 3 KM WERE MEASURED AT 90 J/KG...FROM A MIXED
LAYER PARCEL.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CAPE COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT 0-1 HELICITY VALUES WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STACKED NATURE OF THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONE
ALLOWED MUCH OF THE UPPER COLD CORE TO SPREAD DIRECTLY OVER AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING LOW LEVEL OZARKS AIRMASS.  THIS
WILL PROMOTE A DECENT HAIL RISK WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLDING AND LOWERING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS.  THIS HAS CAUSE HIGH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES
WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...BETWEEN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER.  HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ORGANIZED
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

THETA E DIFFERENTIALS EXCEEDING 25 DEGREES WITHIN THE LOWEST 4 KM OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD YIELD A DOWNBURST RISK WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

PLENTY OF JET ENERGY STILL REMAINS AROUND THIS FULLY MATURE MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE.  RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX
WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AT 300MB...ALLOWING NEARLY
ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE CYCLONICALLY
SHEARED SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ALSO PROMOTE ORGANIZATION
TO ANY UPDRAFTS THAT EXCEED THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.

CRAMER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 238 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

CURRENTLY...MESSY BATCH OF CONVECTION LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND CENTRAL MO AT THIS HOUR. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE LINE IS WEAKLY CAPPED...SURFACE AND MIXED
LAYER CIN IN THE 20 TO 40 J/KG RANGE...WITH MODEST SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM SHOWS POCKETS OF HIGHER BASE VELOCITY JUTTING INTO THE LINE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE OCCASIONAL MARC SIGNATURE AND A FEW
MESOVORTICIES. DUE TO THE SPORADIC NATURE OF THESE FEATURES...AND
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...WE HAVE ONLY RECEIVED INFREQUENT REPORTS
OF WIND. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND JUST AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS. AM EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND SUB SEVERE GIVEN A MORE STOUT CAP
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

TODAY...COMPLEX FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY EDGE INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
MIDDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AND THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE OF BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. THE AREA OF INITIATION OF MOST CONCERN IS THE HIGHWAY
65 CORRIDOR TO THE EAST. THIS REGION WILL BE BEST POSITIONED IN
THE NOSE OF THE 700 MB JET...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS AND
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THESE VALUES WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED
TO BE BACK IN PLACE BY MIDDAY...MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THESE INGREDIENT SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES.
INITIATION IN THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY
MOVING TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...COINCIDENT WITH MORE NARROWLY
FOCUSED VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW FURTHER TO THE WEST...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL POSE A RISK OF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS
ALOFT AND SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER IN A SCATTERED
FASHION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S TONIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER
LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUICK MOVING WAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHUNT RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
NORTH AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF OUR WEATHER REGIME.
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS...EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL AND WITH 925/850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
CELSIUS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE REGION.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FOR SGF/BBG. INITIAL
MVFR DECK WITH TEND TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR THIS MORNING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TSRA INITIATE
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM ALONG THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR AND HEAD EAST QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AFFECT THE JLN AERODROME.
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL WANE A BIT THIS EVENING...LESSENING IN
COVERAGE WITH TIME. AS NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR IFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT SGF/BBG
WITH LOW END MVFR MORE PLAUSIBLE AT JLN.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
105 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
105 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...EXTREME.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK.
EXTREME HAIL RISK.
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE THE RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH...AND TORNADOES WEST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD TO
GALENA. THE STORMS WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 7 PM.

THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR TABLE ROCK LAKE...LAKE
TANEYCOMO...AND BULL SHOALS LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE
FROM WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD TO GALENA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
131 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             ELDON                   38.35N 92.58W
05/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       MILLER             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             FAIR GROVE              37.38N 93.15W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
136 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N SPRINGFIELD         37.28N 93.29W
05/25/2011                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 TO 3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN AND FR159 AND HWY AA

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
137 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             DIXON                   37.99N 92.09W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
144 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             1 SE OLEAN              38.40N 92.52W
05/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NE NEWBURG            37.92N 91.89W
05/25/2011                   PHELPS             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GAEDE