Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Springfield, MO

771 
WWUS53 KSGF 222152
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC009-109-119-145-222215-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110422T2215Z/
BARRY MO-MCDONALD MO-NEWTON MO-LAWRENCE MO-
452 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...NEWTON...MCDONALD AND NORTHWESTERN BARRY
COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
TRACK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST
OF NEOSHO TO 10 MILES WEST OF ANDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN OTTAWA COUNTY OKLAHOMA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ANDERSON...CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS ACRES...
DIAMOND...FAIRVIEW...FREISTATT...GOODMAN...GRANBY...LANAGAN...
LEAWOOD...MONETT...NEOSHO...NEWTONIA...PIERCE CITY...PINEVILLE...
PIONEER...POWELL...RACINE...REDINGS MILL...RITCHEY...ROCKY COMFORT...
SAGINAW...SENECA...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL
CREEK ESTATE...SILVER CREEK...SOUTHERN JOPLIN...STARK CITY...
STELLA...WENTWORTH AND WHEATON.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9463 3705 9461 3705 9382 3657 9415
      3657 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 259DEG 39KT 3687 9438 3667 9457
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL.

SEE THE LATEST CONVECTIVE UPDATE BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL. QUICK LOOK
AT THE 20Z KSGF SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE AT 750MB...BUT
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE OVER KS AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING. INITIATION IS STILL
EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 4KM WRF WOULD
INDICATE...AROUND 21Z-22Z. THE OVERALL SET UP HAS SOME SIMILARITIES
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER LAST TUE.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWFA WILL GRADUALLY SLOW AND
STALL FROM THE OH VLY...THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO NORTHEAST OK BY
SAT MORNING. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
NOCTURNAL OW LEVEL JET BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGGED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.50 INCHES AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEFTY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY HAS NOT
CHANGED...BUT OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING HOURS WHEN THE RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HEAVIEST.
IN THE GRIDS...STILL HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF SIX
INCHES.

THE NEWS DOES NOT GET ANY BETTER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED. ANY HEAVY RAIN BY THIS TIME WILL FALL IMMEDIATELY
AS RUNOFF. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT WILL BE A MORE OF
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERN.

FINALLY LOOKS LIKE DRIER WEATHER LATE IN THE EXTENDED THU-FRI.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/133 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELPED TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
AS A RESULT INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1500 TO
3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HEAT THE CAP IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE AND THE CONTINUED HEATING
OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS WHICH HAS CAUSED THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE CAP WILL LIKELY
LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER
21Z (4 PM CDT) THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE.

WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE
FRONT...WITH DISCRETE CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL IN SIZE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERED HOWEVER...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL SOME...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. HOWEVER...AGAIN
WITH THE SUPERCELLUAR STORM MODE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXPECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

BY MID EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS MAY CONGEAL MORE
INTO A LINE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE TAF SITES WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1243 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE HAIL RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE FLOODING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE TORNADO RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS ELEVATED.
THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A CAP WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

INITIALLY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO OSCEOLA. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE BY EVENING AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI OZARKS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OR PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE STORM RISK.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT STALLS THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF
LINGERING HEAVY RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN COUNTIES CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SOME
SEVERE WEATHER.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RESULTANT RISK OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
410 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOZ056-222145-
MORGAN MO-
410 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF FLORENCE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
SEDALIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MORGAN
COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3868 9283 3860 9283 3854 9276
      3853 9276 3854 9307 3868 9307 3870 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 258DEG 29KT 3860 9322

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
426 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             PURCELL                 37.24N 94.43W
04/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED IN PURCELL.

&&

JCOLUCCI