Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Springfield, MO

224 
WWUS53 KSGF 201255
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSC021-037-MOC011-097-201315-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-110520T1315Z/
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
755 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN JASPER...SOUTHWESTERN BARTON...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND
EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

AT 753 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASBURY...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
WEIR...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASBURY...CARL JUNCTION...CHICOPEE...
CRESTLINE...FRONTENAC...GALENA...LAWTON...LONE OAK...NASHVILLE...
NEUTRAL...OPOLIS...PITTSBURG...RIVERTON...WACO AND WEIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9480 3747 9438 3707 9457 3707 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 197DEG 38KT 3732 9459
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GAGAN

715 
WWUS53 KSGF 201309
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
809 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSC021-037-MOC011-097-201319-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-110520T1315Z/
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
809 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN JASPER...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTON...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 AM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3747 9480 3747 9438 3707 9457 3707 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 197DEG 38KT 3746 9453

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER SLIGHTLY AND LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE IS
RESULTING IN AN EXPANDED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF WHAT IS BECOMING AN OUTFLOW DOMINATE LINE OF
STORMS EXITING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DECAYING
LINE OF STORMS WILL ALSO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
TIME...THOUGH CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT GETS FURTHER AND
FURTHER DISPLACED FROM BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. IN GENERAL...THINKING
THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR WILL BE MOST
PRONE TO OBSERVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
EARLY DAY STORMS DISSIPATE. THIS WILL HAVE GREAT INFLUENCE ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS YET ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS GEARS UP TO
OUR WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE CHALLENGING AND VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE
COMING WEEK...AS MESSY AND COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE OZARKS.  CONVECTION THAT FIRED THURSDAY
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS REMAINS SUPPORTED EARLY THIS MORNING
BY BROAD 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST
FORECAST FOR THIS CONVECTION IS FOR IT TO CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING
AS THE LLJ VEERS A BIT...WITH LARGE MCS TRAVERSING THE OZARKS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.  RIGHT NOW...DON'T
THINK THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO HIGH WITH THIS INITIAL COMPLEX
OF STORMS...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAINING SOMEWHAT MEAGER OVER
THE AREA...AND CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING ELEVATED.

BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD PARK ITSELF ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SLOWLY EJECTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.  DRYLINE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE INCREASES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA.  RIGHT NOW...EXACT EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
CONVECTION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...WITH MUCH OF THE EVENTUAL
SCENARIO HINGING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS MORNING...AND
AIRMASS RECOVERY (OR LACK THEREOF) BEHIND THIS MORNING'S MCS(S).  IF
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...THEN SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS PROBABLE OVER KANSAS...AS
40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZATION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES.  FOR THE
SGF CWA...THINK THAT IF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA/U.S. 71 CORRIDOR.  THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
HAIL.  FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS...SUSPECT
THAT BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN A BIT LOW TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT
THAT FAR EAST LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. NONETHELESS...EVEN IF STORMS
ARE SUB-SEVERE...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT FOR
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...AS LATE NIGHT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FEED RICH
TROPICAL AIR INTO ANY CONVECTION OVER THE REGION.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT/THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH PWAT VALUES WELL
ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE...POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR
FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ONLY REMAINING QUESTIONS ON
QPF REMAINS FORCING MECHANISMS AND MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.  UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN THE FORECASTING
BUSINESS...SUCH DETAILS REMAIN VERY MURKY AT THIS DISTANCE.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY...ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON ITS
WAY EAST OF THE AREA.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY OVER THE CWA...THOUGH CHANCES AGAIN REMAIN CONDITIONAL BASED ON
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR.  THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
AGAIN...THOUGH...SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE
AND AREAL EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE REGION TO BRIEFLY DRY
OUT...AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA.  RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND EXPECT TO
SEE MORE RAIN/THUNDER DEVELOP INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AND ON
TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES.

FINAL SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.  STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN
THE SPECIFICS...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BOXELL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED NATURE OF
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAKES IT TOUGH TO PINPOINT TIMING...HOWEVER
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING
JLN/SGF/BBG BY...ROUGHLY...THE MID MORNING HOURS. MVFR VIS/CIG
WILL ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
VARIABLE. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
ENTER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT EACH SITE FOR NOW.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
  DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
  WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 71 AS STRONG STORMS MOVE EAST FROM
  CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
  BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
  FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE
  SAME LOCATION. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD
  PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY
  THROUGH THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
  OCCUR SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH STRAIGHT LINE
  WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

  DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR FLASH
  FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL
  WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE
  ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
  TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE U.S. 71
  CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

KSZ101-MOZ088-201300-
CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-
735 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE AND WESTERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 732 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RIVERTON...OR NEAR GALENA...MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASBURY...CARL JUNCTION...CRESTLINE...
GALENA...LAWTON...LOWELL...NEUTRAL...RIVERTON...SCAMMON...SKIDMORE...
STIPPVILLE...WACO AND WEIR.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3734 9462 3735 9462 3736 9443 3706 9460
      3704 9462 3705 9482 3734 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1235Z 195DEG 36KT 3712 9468

GAGAN