Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Springfield, MO

163 
WWUS53 KSGF 130236
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
936 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

MOC029-105-125-131-161-169-130300-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-110513T0300Z/
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
936 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR PULASKI...PHELPS...MILLER...MARIES...EASTERN LACLEDE AND EASTERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES...

AT 934 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT ELIZABETH TO 5 MILES NORTH OF ST. ROBERT TO 3
MILES EAST OF FALCON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BELLE...CROCKER...DIXON...DOOLITTLE...FORT
LEONARD WOOD...IBERIA...LEBANON...NEWBURG...OSAGE BEACH...RICHLAND...
ROLLA...ST. JAMES...ST. ROBERT...VIENNA AND WAYNESVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK
AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 124 AND
199 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 9226 3834 9220 3830 9218 3829 9163
      3816 9164 3814 9151 3779 9153 3779 9180
      3770 9183 3760 9215 3761 9224 3758 9225
      3748 9258 3749 9271 3786 9266 3811 9274
      3835 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 245DEG 49KT 3824 9216 3792 9214
          3763 9229
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
717 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 7 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293 CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WERE SUPPORTED
BY A PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED KANSAS WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO HAIL PRODUCTION.

DEEP LAYERED SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK OF LARGE
HAIL. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS TO SOFTBALLS HAS BEEN
REPORTED THIS EVENING.

DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AND MAY INCREASE AS A COLD
POOLS STRENGTHENS BEHIND AND EXPANDING COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE RISK OF
TORNADOES REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN WELL STRUCTURED
SUPERCELLS.

LASTLY THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

AN UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURLED INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
HAD BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN TEXAS WITH A FEW CELLS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY INITIATE ACROSS OKLAHOMA THEN SPREAD
NORTHEAST AS A MID LEVEL JET STREAKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND A GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE FACTORS AND AN INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
COOLING THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL.
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS LOW AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE
BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE DOES EXIST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. WITH THE COLD CORE OVERHEAD
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OR
TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALBEIT LESS COVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP AND WE REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNDER A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ATTEMPT TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 PM SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY A
MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE...LOCATION AND TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE REGARDING THE CURRENT TAFS. AFTER
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY.

KURTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
801 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
801 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL.
LIMITED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR LIGHTNING.
LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 71 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 63.
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THIS RISK OF A SHORT LIVED TORNADO IS LIMITED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...IF ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
830 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             RIVERTON                37.07N 94.70W
05/12/2011  E1.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
834 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
05/12/2011  M55 MPH          GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED AT THE GREENE COUNTY EOC IN DOWNTOWN
            SPRINGFIELD.

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
841 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E LAMAR               37.49N 94.20W
05/12/2011                   BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR NEWPORT

&&

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
841 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

MOZ104-105-130230-
OZARK MO-TANEY MO-
841 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN TANEY AND WESTERN OZARK
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 836 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PROTEM...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORSYTH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONG RUN BY 850 PM CDT.
  THORNFIELD AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNBRANCH BY 855 PM CDT.
  NOBLE BY 900 PM CDT.
  WASOLA BY 905 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3680 9301 3680 9239 3650 9269 3650 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 218DEG 45KT 3660 9282

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE SPRINGFIELD       37.15N 93.27W
05/12/2011                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN NEAR ROGERS AND FREMONT.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
853 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARSHFIELD              37.34N 92.91W
05/12/2011  E50 MPH          WEBSTER            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            WEST SIDE OF MARSHFIELD

&&

GAEDE