River Flood Warning 59, NWS Seattle, WA

876 
WGUS86 KSEW 231919
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY. 
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY. 
  STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY. 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER AFFECTING GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. 
  NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH 
  COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 11

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL WESTERN WASHINGTON RIVERS AS A
RESULT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE UPPER REACHES OF
MOST RIVERS CRESTED THIS MORNING OR WILL CREST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CRESTS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC045-240419-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111124T2100Z/
/SRPW1.3.ER.111122T1705Z.111122T2030Z.111124T1200Z.NR/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 10:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS...WITH WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER EAST 
  BOURGAULT ROAD AND SKOKOMISH VALLEY ROAD.

$$

WAC073-240418-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0057.111123T1859Z-111124T1506Z/
/NRKW1.1.ER.111123T1733Z.111123T1815Z.111124T0606Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 
* AT 10:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 146.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 146.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 146.7 FEET AROUND 4 PM
  WEDNESDAY AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 146.5 FEET...THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL CAUSE SHALLOW 
  FLOODING OF LOW PASTURE LANDS ALONG THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH 
  LYNDEN.

$$

WAC061-240418-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-111124T1343Z/
/ARGW1.2.ER.111123T1718Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0443Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT 10:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 14.0 FEET
  AROUND 4 PM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...THE NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER WILL 
  CAUSE FLOODING IN THE CICERO AND SWEDE HEAVEN AREAS...OSO LOOP 
  ROAD...AND SR 530. FLOOD WATERS WILL ALSO CAUSE RIVERBANK EROSION.
  A STAGE OF 14 FEET CORRESPONDS TO PHASE 3 IN THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY 
  FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM.

$$

WAC061-240418-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111124T2016Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.111123T1543Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0816Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 10:24 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 17.2 FEET
  AROUND 4 PM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE FLOODING 
  MAINLY IN THE SILVANA AREA...ALONG NORMAN ROAD AND IN FLORENCE. A 
  STAGE OF 17 FEET ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER CORRESPONDS ROUGHLY TO 
  PHASE 3 IN THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY FLOOD PROGRAM.

$$

WAC053-240418-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-111124T1427Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.111123T1244Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0527Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 
* AT  9:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WAS 6480 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6700 CFS 
  AROUND 4 PM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD FLOW 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING. AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC067-240418-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-111124T1554Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.111123T1742Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0654Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM
  IN TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-240200-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111124T0200Z/
/NEWW1.1.ER.111123T1100Z.111123T1500Z.111123T2200Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 10:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS. A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO
  PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC027-240418-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0060.111124T0655Z-111125T1317Z/
/CRPW1.1.ER.111124T0655Z.111124T1800Z.111125T0417Z.NO/
1119 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER
* FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 11 PM 
  WEDNESDAY AND CREST NEAR 21.4 FEET AROUND 10 AM THURSDAY. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN GRAYS HARBOR WILL 
  FLOOD LOW PASTURE LANDS AND SOME ROADS. HIGH TIDAL LEVELS AT 
  ABERDEEN WILL WORSEN FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES.

$$

MCDONNAL
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

097 
WGUS86 KSEW 232348
FLSSEW
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE AFFECTING WHATCOM COUNTY.
  NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH 
  COUNTY.
  DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER AFFECTING THURSTON COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
WASHINGTON...
 
  STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON AFFECTING SNOHOMISH COUNTY. 
  PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING AFFECTING PIERCE COUNTY. 
  NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS AFFECTING LEWIS COUNTY. 
  CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER AFFECTING GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY. 
  SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH AFFECTING MASON COUNTY. 
 
.FLOOD BULLETIN NO. 12

THE UPPER REACHES OF WESTERN WASHINGTON RIVERS HAVE CRESTED NOW...AND
THE CRESTS WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY DOWNSTREAM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CREST OF THE CHEHALIS RIVER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRALIA AREA
AND THURSTON COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS...VANS...OR TRUCKS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THIS IS 
THE CAUSE OF MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS IN WASHINGTON. BE ALERT FOR 
RAPID CHANGES AND MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

WAC045-240848-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111124T2100Z/
/SRPW1.3.ER.111122T1705Z.111122T2030Z.111124T1200Z.NR/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 3:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD 
  FLOODING OF PASTURE LANDS...WITH WATER FLOWING QUICKLY OVER EAST 
  BOURGAULT ROAD AND SKOKOMISH VALLEY ROAD.

$$

WAC073-240018-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-111124T0000Z/
/NRKW1.1.ER.111123T1733Z.111123T2045Z.111123T2229Z.NO/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE
* AT 3:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 146.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 146.5 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 146.5 FEET...THE NOOKSACK RIVER WILL CAUSE SHALLOW 
  FLOODING OF LOW PASTURE LANDS ALONG THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH 
  LYNDEN.

$$

WAC061-240018-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-111124T1343Z/
/ARGW1.1.ER.111123T1718Z.111123T1900Z.111123T2101Z.NO/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE NORTH FORK STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON
* AT 3:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE  1 PM WEDNESDAY 
  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

$$

WAC061-240848-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111124T1917Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.111123T1543Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0717Z.NO/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AT ARLINGTON
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 
* AT 3:24 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 17.2 FEET
  AROUND 4 PM WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER WILL CAUSE FLOODING 
  MAINLY IN THE SILVANA AREA, ALONG NORMAN ROAD AND IN FLORENCE. A 
  STAGE OF 17 FEET ON THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER CORRESPONDS ROUGHLY TO 
  PHASE 3 IN THE SNOHOMISH COUNTY FLOOD PROGRAM.

$$

WAC053-240848-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-111124T1256Z/
/ORTW1.1.ER.111123T1244Z.111123T2115Z.111124T0356Z.NO/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. 
* AT 2:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WAS 5660 CFS. 
* FLOOD FLOW IS 4500 CFS. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW
  FLOOD FLOW THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 4500 CFS...THE PUYALLUP RIVER WILL FLOOD SOME AREAS 
  ALONG THE UPPER PUYALLUP RIVER ABOVE ORTING. AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
  NOT LIMITED TO THE NEADHAM ROAD VICINITY...ORVILLE ROAD EAST 
  VICINITY IN AREAS SOUTH OF BROOKS ROAD EAST AND NORTH OF ELECTRON 
  ROAD...AND THE COUNTRY SUBDIVISION/TOMOLLA TREE FARM VICINITY.

$$

WAC067-240018-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-111124T1554Z/
/DSRW1.1.ER.111123T1742Z.111123T1830Z.111123T1835Z.NO/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR
  THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER
* AT 2:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 10:30 AM WEDNESDAY 
  THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE DESCHUTES RIVER WILL FLOOD DOWNSTREAM
  TUMWATER VALLEY INCLUDING THE GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING WILL 
  ALSO OCCUR IN SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL AREAS...MAINLY COUGAR MOUNTAIN 
  AND DRIFTWOOD VALLEY. MANY ROADS AND FARM LANDS WILL ALSO BE 
  FLOODED.

$$

WAC041-240847-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111125T0130Z/
/NEWW1.2.ER.111123T1100Z.111124T0000Z.111124T1630Z.NR/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEWAUKUM RIVER NEAR CHEHALIS
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 2:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD AROUND 10.5 FEET
  THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE MANY ROADS AND 
  RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL AREAS ALONG THE NEWAUKUM RIVER AND ITS 
  FORKS. A STAGE OF 10.5 ON THE NEWAUKUM ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO
  PHASE 2 FLOOD IN THE LEWIS COUNTY FLOOD SYSTEM.

$$

WAC027-240847-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0060.111124T1651Z-111126T0449Z/
/CRPW1.1.ER.111124T1651Z.111125T0600Z.111125T1949Z.NO/
348 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER
* FROM 9 AM THURSDAY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 2:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 9 AM 
  THURSDAY AND CREST NEAR 21.1 FEET AROUND 10 PM THURSDAY. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...THE CHEHALIS RIVER IN GRAYS HARBOR WILL 
  FLOOD LOW PASTURE LANDS AND SOME ROADS. HIGH TIDAL LEVELS AT 
  ABERDEEN WILL WORSEN FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY WITH RAIN AND WIND DIMINISHING. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A THIRD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
WIND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES RAINFALL IS DECREASING ACROSS
WRN WA THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT HAS SHIFTED E OF PUGET SOUND
AND IS SLOWLY EDGING EWD ACROSS THE CASCADES. MODERATE RAINFALL IS
STILL FALLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND E OF PUGET SOUND AND ALONG THE
CASCADES BUT RAINFALL RATES HAVE COME DOWN. THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
HYDRO CONCERNS FROM RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEE THE LATEST
HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS. ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND MUCH OF THE N
INTERIOR IT APPEARS RAIN HAS TAPERED TO JUST SHOWERS. RAIN WILL
TAPPER OFF TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY LATER TODAY.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT NOT ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SNOW. THIS WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE NEXT STORM.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A TAD WEAKER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.  HOWEVER...WIND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTS WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
INCLUDES THE COAST...AND NW INTERIOR. THE 972 MB SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL B.C. IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE MEANS THE SE GRADIENT ACROSS WRN WA MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR
HIGH WIND. WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER 12Z MODELS AND WRFGFS BEFORE
DECIDED WHETHER TO GO WITH A WARNING OR ADVISORY LATER TODAY FOR
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO WRN WA THIS MORNING WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL OF 3600 FT AT FORKS. AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUES TO
TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO
2000 FT IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. PRECIP WITH THE THANKSGIVING
DAY SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BY LATE MORNING OVER THE OLYMPICS AND BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES. EXPECT ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE A QUICK
MOVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE GOOD OROGRAPHICS BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PASSES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH AT LEAST 6-8
INCHES WHILE THE HIGHER PASSES AND S FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES ABOVE
4500 FEET WILL LIKELY GET A FOOT OF SNOW WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD.
THIS INCLUDES SPOTS LIKE MT. BAKER AND PARADISE. TEMPERATURES IN THE
PASSES WILL PROBABLY BE STUCK IN THE 20S SO EXPECT VERY SLICK
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY CONVERT THIS TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. AN ADVISORY FOR THE OLYMPICS MAY BE FINE THERE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA MAY IN FACT PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THERE LOWLANDS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.   MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN
AND WIND AGAIN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FRONT THAT WAS STALLED OFFSHORE TUESDAY MOVED
SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. AT 8 AM
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES...AND
EVEN THERE IT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS ALSO
FALLING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LEVEL AT
QUILLAYUTE WAS ALREADY DOWN TO 3600 FT.

THE FRONT BROUGHT ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION --
GENERALLY SPEAKING -- TO THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT...WITH TWO-DAY STORM TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 10 INCH RANGE.
LARGELY DUE TO THE LULL IN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...NO RIVER THERE
REACHED FLOOD STAGE EXCEPT THE SKOKOMISH RIVER...WHERE A FLOOD
WARNING FOR MAJOR FLOODING IS IN EFFECT. A FEW DID GET CLOSE THOUGH.
FOR EXAMPLE THE SATSOP RIVER WILL CREST JUST A FOOT OR SO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AMOUNTED TO 1 TO 4 INCHES
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH TWO-DAY STORM TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 6
INCH RANGE. A RELATIVE BREAK IN RAINFALL TUESDAY MITIGATED THE FLOOD
THREAT IN THE CHEHALIS BASIN AS WELL. THE UPPER REACH OF THE
CHEHALIS -- THE CHEHALIS NEAR DOTY -- WAS NEAR ITS CREST WITHIN A
FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE AT 8 AM. THE NEWAUKUM RIVER -- A MAJOR TRIBUTARY
OF THE CHEHALIS -- WAS NEAR ITS CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THERE.

THE CREST ON THE CHEHALIS IN CENTRALIA AND DOWNSTREAM IN THURSTON
COUNTY...WHICH WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL
BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNINGS THERE WERE DROPPED AS
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC MODELS INDICATED THEY WOULD CREST JUST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WE WILL GET A BETTER CREST FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES
ONCE THE UPPER CHEHALIS AND THE NEWAUKUM HAVE CRESTED...AND MINOR
FLOODING THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHEHALIS IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY...WHERE THE
CREST WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT BROUGHT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES...AND TWO-DAY STORM TOTALS WERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8
INCHES. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS RATHER LOW OVER THE CASCADES FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENT THOUGH...DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WENT INTO THE
RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAIN STEM OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AND THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING. BOTH RIVERS
HAVE MINOR FLOODING AND THEY WILL CREST LATER TODAY.

SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS THAT WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT WILL BE NEAR
FLOOD STAGE WHEN THEY CREST TODAY OR TONIGHT. THAT INCLUDES BUT IS
NOT LIMITED TO THE DESCHUTES -- WHERE A WARNING WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT -- AS WELL AS THE SNOQUALMIE AND THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF
THE STILLAGUAMISH.

WITH THE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT COMING TO AN
END...WE WILL SCALE BACK THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING THAT COVERS THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR OF WASHINGTON TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.  MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONT THAT GAVE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA
EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS IS
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE AREA IS
NOW IN MODERATE POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
VFR...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORT
TOWNSEND EAST TO AN AREA FROM 10N KAWO TO NORTHERN KING COUNTY HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR A WHILE TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSEA. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
THIS EVENING.

AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY STABILIZE WHILE REMAINING MOIST. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
STRATUS DECK AROUND 025-030 WILL DOMINATE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND INLAND BY
MIDDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES.

KSEA...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-13 KT TO DOMINATE TODAY. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE KING
SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO INDUCE A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS AT THE TERMINAL...BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY EVENT WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERLIES TO REMAIN FROM AROUND
KBFI NORTHWARD. WIND WILL TREND TO 16006KT AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED AND SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS AT 050 THROUGH EARLY THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT THAT GAVE STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE WATERS ARE
NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW AS WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTLINE AROUND 4 PM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS BY 7 PM.
THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THURSDAY...SO A STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS...WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE AND STORM WATCHES
CONTINUE IN THE INLAND WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WITH
THE ANTICIPATION THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY. THE INCOMING
FRONT DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO THE PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND AT THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT
HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT. ANTICIPATE ISSUING GALE WARNINGS OVER MOST
OF THE INLAND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE STORMS OVER
THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

VERY STRONG POSTFRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DECREASE
LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MAY
PRODUCED MORE GALES.

SWELL ON THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TODAY...BUT WILL BUILD SHARPLY TO
OVER 20 FT LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS NEXT STRONG
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SEAS NEARING 20 FT IS LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE...DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT WARMING...STRONG
WINDS...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...ARE
ALL INCREASINGLY AFFECTING OUR FRAGILE EARLY SEASON SNOWPACK. THE
ABUNDANCE OF BURIED WEAK SNOW LAYERS ARE NOT DEALING WELL WITH ALL
OF THE STRESSES ADDED BY UP TO 3-5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT FROM A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MANY NATURAL AVALANCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SNOWPACK...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE SLIDES. WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN OR SNOW PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING MID-DAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH TO EXTREME DANGER
CONTINUES. BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE AVOIDED
UNTIL COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER ALLOWS FOR DECREASING DANGER
LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE QUIET PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY SNOWFALL MID-LATE THURSDAY SO CONTINUING
SAFE TRAVEL PROCEDURES AND CAREFUL SNOWPACK EVALUATION REMAIN A
MUST. MOORE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR
     THURSDAY.
    .WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES THURSDAY
     AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
    .FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...STORM WARNING COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO
      THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR SEVERE BAR CONDITIONS.
    .STORM WATCH EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS FOR THURSDAY.
    .GALE WATCH THURSDAY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...CENTRAL
     STRAIT...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
635 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW VAUGHN             47.35N 122.78W
11/23/2011  M5.74 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL - 36 HOUR TOTAL WAS 7.40 INCHES

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
825 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW VESTA             46.86N 123.66W
11/23/2011  M41.00 MPH       GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH LAST NIGHT. POWER WAS KNOCKED OUT AS
            WELL.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
11/23/2011  M3.77 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT 8 AM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW GRAND MOUND       46.88N 123.04W
11/23/2011  M2.89 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

DDAMICO