Wind Advisory 20, NWS Seattle, WA

944 
WWUS76 KSEW 240518
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
918 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ON THANKSGIVING DAY...

WAZ516-517-241330-
/O.UPG.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.111124T1400Z-111125T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.HW.W.0012.111124T1600Z-111125T0200Z/
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
918 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND
  PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE
  IN THE DAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES AND CAUSE POWER
  OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...
AND DESTROY PROPERTY.

&&

$$

WAZ001-503-506-510-241330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.111124T1600Z-111125T0200Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
918 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND
  PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE
  IN THE DAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES OR BREAK LIMBS AND
  CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP
SMALL TREE BRANCHES...TOPPLE SMALL OR SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...AND
CAUSE LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

CERNIGLIA

976 
WWUS76 KSEW 241158
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
358 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

WAZ516-517-242000-
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0012.111124T1600Z-111125T0200Z/
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
358 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND
  PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
  THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
  FRONT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN CAUSE POWER OUTAGES...DOWN TREE
  LIMBS...AND TOPPLE TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...
AND DESTROY PROPERTY.

&&

$$

WAZ001-503-242000-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.111124T1600Z-111125T0300Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
358 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST
THIS EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND
  PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
  AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
  FRONT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS...TOPPLE
  TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP
SMALL TREE BRANCHES...TOPPLE SMALL OR SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...AND
CAUSE LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

WAZ506-510-242000-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.111124T1600Z-111125T0600Z/
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
358 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
PST THIS EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
  POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
  MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND
  PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A LITTLE
  BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES OR BREAK LIMBS 
  AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP
SMALL TREE BRANCHES...TOPPLE SMALL OR SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...AND
CAUSE LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

511 
WWUS76 KSEW 241624
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
824 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

WAZ001-503-250000-
/O.UPG.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-111125T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KSEW.HW.W.0012.111124T1624Z-111125T0600Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
824 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  POSSIBLE...BECOMING WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
  DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES OR BREAK LIMBS 
  AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...
AND DESTROY PROPERTY.

&&

$$

WAZ506-510-250000-
/O.UPG.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-111125T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KSEW.HW.W.0012.111124T1624Z-111125T0600Z/
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
824 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  POSSIBLE...BECOMING WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
  DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES OR BREAK LIMBS 
  AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...
AND DESTROY PROPERTY.

&&

$$

WAZ516-517-250000-
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111125T0200Z/
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
824 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65
  MPH...BECOMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
  DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES OR BREAK LIMBS 
  AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...DOWN POWER LINES...
AND DESTROY PROPERTY.

&&

$$

WAZ514-515-250000-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WI.Y.0021.111124T1624Z-111125T0600Z/
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
824 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING WEST 30 TO 40 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING...THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE TREES OR BREAK LIMBS 
  AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR
GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP
SMALL TREE BRANCHES...TOPPLE SMALL OR SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...AND
CAUSE LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY WITH RAIN AND WIND DIMINISHING. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A THIRD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
WIND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES RAINFALL IS DECREASING ACROSS
WRN WA THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONT HAS SHIFTED E OF PUGET SOUND
AND IS SLOWLY EDGING EWD ACROSS THE CASCADES. MODERATE RAINFALL IS
STILL FALLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND E OF PUGET SOUND AND ALONG THE
CASCADES BUT RAINFALL RATES HAVE COME DOWN. THERE ARE STILL ONGOING
HYDRO CONCERNS FROM RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SEE THE LATEST
HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS. ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND MUCH OF THE N
INTERIOR IT APPEARS RAIN HAS TAPERED TO JUST SHOWERS. RAIN WILL
TAPPER OFF TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY LATER TODAY.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT NOT ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SNOW. THIS WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE NEXT STORM.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A TAD WEAKER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING WRN WA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.  HOWEVER...WIND AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTS WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
INCLUDES THE COAST...AND NW INTERIOR. THE 972 MB SURFACE LOW
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL B.C. IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN SOME PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE MEANS THE SE GRADIENT ACROSS WRN WA MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR
HIGH WIND. WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER 12Z MODELS AND WRFGFS BEFORE
DECIDED WHETHER TO GO WITH A WARNING OR ADVISORY LATER TODAY FOR
THURSDAY.

COLD AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO WRN WA THIS MORNING WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL OF 3600 FT AT FORKS. AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUES TO
TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO
2000 FT IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. PRECIP WITH THE THANKSGIVING
DAY SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BY LATE MORNING OVER THE OLYMPICS AND BY
AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES. EXPECT ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE A QUICK
MOVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE GOOD OROGRAPHICS BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PASSES WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH AT LEAST 6-8
INCHES WHILE THE HIGHER PASSES AND S FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES ABOVE
4500 FEET WILL LIKELY GET A FOOT OF SNOW WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD.
THIS INCLUDES SPOTS LIKE MT. BAKER AND PARADISE. TEMPERATURES IN THE
PASSES WILL PROBABLY BE STUCK IN THE 20S SO EXPECT VERY SLICK
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY CONVERT THIS TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. AN ADVISORY FOR THE OLYMPICS MAY BE FINE THERE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA MAY IN FACT PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THERE LOWLANDS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.   MERCER

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN
AND WIND AGAIN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE FRONT THAT WAS STALLED OFFSHORE TUESDAY MOVED
SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. AT 8 AM
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES...AND
EVEN THERE IT HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS ALSO
FALLING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LEVEL AT
QUILLAYUTE WAS ALREADY DOWN TO 3600 FT.

THE FRONT BROUGHT ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION --
GENERALLY SPEAKING -- TO THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AS IT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT...WITH TWO-DAY STORM TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 10 INCH RANGE.
LARGELY DUE TO THE LULL IN RAINFALL ON TUESDAY...NO RIVER THERE
REACHED FLOOD STAGE EXCEPT THE SKOKOMISH RIVER...WHERE A FLOOD
WARNING FOR MAJOR FLOODING IS IN EFFECT. A FEW DID GET CLOSE THOUGH.
FOR EXAMPLE THE SATSOP RIVER WILL CREST JUST A FOOT OR SO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AMOUNTED TO 1 TO 4 INCHES
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH TWO-DAY STORM TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 6
INCH RANGE. A RELATIVE BREAK IN RAINFALL TUESDAY MITIGATED THE FLOOD
THREAT IN THE CHEHALIS BASIN AS WELL. THE UPPER REACH OF THE
CHEHALIS -- THE CHEHALIS NEAR DOTY -- WAS NEAR ITS CREST WITHIN A
FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE AT 8 AM. THE NEWAUKUM RIVER -- A MAJOR TRIBUTARY
OF THE CHEHALIS -- WAS NEAR ITS CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND A
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THERE.

THE CREST ON THE CHEHALIS IN CENTRALIA AND DOWNSTREAM IN THURSTON
COUNTY...WHICH WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WILL
BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WARNINGS THERE WERE DROPPED AS
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC MODELS INDICATED THEY WOULD CREST JUST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WE WILL GET A BETTER CREST FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES
ONCE THE UPPER CHEHALIS AND THE NEWAUKUM HAVE CRESTED...AND MINOR
FLOODING THERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHEHALIS IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY...WHERE THE
CREST WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT BROUGHT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES...AND TWO-DAY STORM TOTALS WERE ROUGHLY 3 TO 8
INCHES. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS RATHER LOW OVER THE CASCADES FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENT THOUGH...DECREASING THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WENT INTO THE
RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAIN STEM OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER AND THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING. BOTH RIVERS
HAVE MINOR FLOODING AND THEY WILL CREST LATER TODAY.

SEVERAL OTHER RIVERS THAT WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT WILL BE NEAR
FLOOD STAGE WHEN THEY CREST TODAY OR TONIGHT. THAT INCLUDES BUT IS
NOT LIMITED TO THE DESCHUTES -- WHERE A WARNING WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT -- AS WELL AS THE SNOQUALMIE AND THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF
THE STILLAGUAMISH.

WITH THE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT COMING TO AN
END...WE WILL SCALE BACK THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION WE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING THAT COVERS THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR OF WASHINGTON TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.  MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONT THAT GAVE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA
EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR MASS IS
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE AREA IS
NOW IN MODERATE POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
VFR...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM PORT
TOWNSEND EAST TO AN AREA FROM 10N KAWO TO NORTHERN KING COUNTY HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR A WHILE TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST
NORTH OF KSEA. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
THIS EVENING.

AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO
GRADUALLY STABILIZE WHILE REMAINING MOIST. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
STRATUS DECK AROUND 025-030 WILL DOMINATE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD ONTO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND INLAND BY
MIDDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHES.

KSEA...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-13 KT TO DOMINATE TODAY. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF THE KING
SNOHOMISH COUNTY LINE WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO INDUCE A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS AT THE TERMINAL...BUT THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY EVENT WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERLIES TO REMAIN FROM AROUND
KBFI NORTHWARD. WIND WILL TREND TO 16006KT AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT HAVE DECREASED AND SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS AT 050 THROUGH EARLY THU. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT THAT GAVE STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE WATERS ARE
NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW AS WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTLINE AROUND 4 PM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS BY 7 PM.
THE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THURSDAY...SO A STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS...WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE AND STORM WATCHES
CONTINUE IN THE INLAND WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL WITH
THE ANTICIPATION THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY. THE INCOMING
FRONT DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SO THE PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
IN THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND AT THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT
HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT. ANTICIPATE ISSUING GALE WARNINGS OVER MOST
OF THE INLAND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE STORMS OVER
THE EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

VERY STRONG POSTFRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DECREASE
LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A STRONG WARM FRONT WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND MAY
PRODUCED MORE GALES.

SWELL ON THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TODAY...BUT WILL BUILD SHARPLY TO
OVER 20 FT LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS NEXT STRONG
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SEAS NEARING 20 FT IS LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE...DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT WARMING...STRONG
WINDS...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...ARE
ALL INCREASINGLY AFFECTING OUR FRAGILE EARLY SEASON SNOWPACK. THE
ABUNDANCE OF BURIED WEAK SNOW LAYERS ARE NOT DEALING WELL WITH ALL
OF THE STRESSES ADDED BY UP TO 3-5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT FROM A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MANY NATURAL AVALANCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SNOWPACK...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASINGLY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE SLIDES. WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN OR SNOW PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING MID-DAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH TO EXTREME DANGER
CONTINUES. BACK COUNTRY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE AVOIDED
UNTIL COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER ALLOWS FOR DECREASING DANGER
LATER WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE QUIET PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY SNOWFALL MID-LATE THURSDAY SO CONTINUING
SAFE TRAVEL PROCEDURES AND CAREFUL SNOWPACK EVALUATION REMAIN A
MUST. MOORE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR
     THURSDAY.
    .WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES THURSDAY
     AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
    .FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
     WESTERN WASHINGTON.
PZ...STORM WARNING COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
     THURSDAY.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO
      THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EAST ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR FOR SEVERE BAR CONDITIONS.
    .STORM WATCH EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS FOR THURSDAY.
    .GALE WATCH THURSDAY WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...CENTRAL
     STRAIT...AND ADMIRALTY INLET.

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
825 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW VESTA             46.86N 123.66W
11/23/2011  M41.00 MPH       GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEAK GUST OF 41 MPH LAST NIGHT. POWER WAS KNOCKED OUT AS
            WELL.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
11/23/2011  M3.77 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT 8 AM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW GRAND MOUND       46.88N 123.04W
11/23/2011  M2.89 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

DDAMICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1024 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW MONTESANO          46.97N 123.65W
11/23/2011  M3.06 INCH       GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM.

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE BREMERTON         47.58N 122.69W
11/23/2011  M2.74 INCH       KITSAP             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 7 PM LAST NIGHT.

0931 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW MAPLE VALLEY       47.45N 122.11W
11/23/2011  M2.50 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS.

&&

GRUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1052 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     HEAVY RAIN       S KENMORE               47.76N 122.24W
11/23/2011  M2.70 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN PAST 24HOURS.

0549 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COVINGTON               47.35N 122.11W
11/23/2011  M2.00 INCH       KING               WA   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

GRUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1246 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW LOWER ELWHA       48.14N 123.57W
11/23/2011  M2.49 INCH       CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

GRUB