Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
908 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM WISCONSIN TO KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS STORMS TRACKING ACROSS BEST INSTABILITY THIS
EVENING...BLUEFIELD-FLOYD-DANVILLE SOUTH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS LINE WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND SMALL HAIL. SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE TO THE NORTH BUT WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ANY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AREA COVERAGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS MAY DROP SOME AS
SHOWERS PASS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THICK
AND INSULATE THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUGGY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOODS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO L70S CAN BE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT FROM APPROACHING FRONT AND OTHER VARIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

FOR THIS EVENING...GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...
WHERE HIGHER CAPE WILL FEED THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET INITIATED VCNTY
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH ANY NORTHWEST
MOVING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS OVER CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM
THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS...WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATE NIGHT LIFT FROM
OUTFLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE LOCAL WRF BRINGS THIS FEATURE OVER THE MTNS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM.   AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH
TERRAIN INDUCED LIFT COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AGAIN
FIRE MORE DEEP CONVECTION...ALL CULMINATING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. UNTIL FROPA...ENTIRE FCST AREA WILL BE
SUBJECT TO A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT IN TIME...A
MATTER OF WHEN AS OPPOSED TO IF.

FOLLOWED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT'S TEMPS PER ELEVATED
DEW POINTS. USED A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR TMAX TUESDAY. MODEL POPS ARE
HIGH...SUGGESTING 80 PERCENT OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. 12 HOUR TIME STEPS
CUT THIS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 60...AND GENERALLY 40 PERCENT OR LESS
DURING ANY 6HOUR BLOCK OF TIME. IF I HAD TO PUT ALL OF MY EGGS IN
A BASKET...I WOULD SAY LOOK OUT FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS TO PROVIDE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR QPF. IF FEATURE MATERIALIZES AND COMES
THROUGH AS FCST BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL...THEN SUGGESTION WOULD BE
FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEST WIND IN ITS WAKE FOR
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD ROB CONVERGENCE AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC
FRONT. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT WITH A
BROAD BRUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP
ENDED BY 12Z/8A WED. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WITH MORE COMFORTABLE HIGH AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH
PRODUCING 100F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE FROM THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS TO KMCO BY 8PM FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW DIVING INTO KSFO AND CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
INITIALLY...LLVL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS PROBABLY WONT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. PWATS WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM WEST TO EAST DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SUNDAY...SO THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK STAND
THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY BUT SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO ALSO BE AROUND 90 TO THE UPPER 90S IF THE OHIO VALLEY BOUNDARY
IS DELAYED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. AREA RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THE STORMS TO
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BLF...BCB AND ROA
TO HAVE RAIN BEFORE 06Z.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECT MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH ANY CLEARING MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE FOG BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THEY GET RAIN
BEFORE 06Z.

ADDITIONAL THREAT OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR
MID WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY WX THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG ALONG THE RIVERS...PRIMARILY IN THE MTNS...LOOKING
AT VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-280730-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
319 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
932 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDEN                    36.51N 79.74W
06/27/2011                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF REYNOLDS ST/HARRIS ST

&&

RSTONEFI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

VAZ033-043-044-280230-
FRANKLIN VA-HENRY VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
949 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HENRY AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES...

AT 944 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CALLANDS...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CLIMAX AROUND 955 PM...DRY FORK AROUND 1005
PM...CHATHAM...AND BLAIRS AROUND 1010 PM AND GRETNA AROUND 1015 PM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3676 7978 3694 7969 3703 7911 3663 7920

AMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KING                    36.28N 80.36W
06/27/2011                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

RSTONEFI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1004 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KING                    36.28N 80.36W
06/27/2011                   STOKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF KING

&&

RSTONEFI

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