Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY. A MORE COMFORTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RECLAIMS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS ALONG THE HIGHER
PEAKS FROM SE WV AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...SOUTHWARD TO THE NW
NC MTNS. THERE IS MORE OF A UNIFORM STORM MOTION TODAY...GENERALLY
TO THE EAST. CAPES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL AROUND 200 J/KG WITH MORE HEATING TO GO. WITH MODELS
SHOWING WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO
THE PIEDMONT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TSTMS IN THE MTNS WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE MTNS LATER THIS
EVENING FROM MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS KY AND WV CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR SCT
TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIKELY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM 400 PM TO 600 PM. WITH THE MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND
HIGH PWATS OF 1.3 T0 1.5 INCHES...LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO LIKELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
MUGGY- RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVG THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL FINISH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF HEATING
TO PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND MORE SHEAR ON SATURDAY FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS- LINES OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER...BUT TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. WILL IT BE AFTERNOON OR
MORE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT? SO...HAVE KEPT POPS CHC FOR
NOW SAT AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
LIKELY CUT BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION
SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF SAGGING INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. LOCATIONS OF CONVECTION STILL REMAINS HARD TO PIN DOWN SAT
EVENING AS EXPECT THERE MAY BE AN AXIS ACROSS THE EAST THAT PUSHED
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLY ON. FADING OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY SUPPORTS ONLY KEEPING POPS
OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NW...BASICALLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGH CHANCE...CLOSE TO LOW LIKELYS NW THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH SE TO BISECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER
AIR STARTING TO SPILL INTO THE WEST WHILE THE EAST REMAINS RATHER
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH THE FRONT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
MODELS LOOK CLOSE WITH OVERALL TIMING KEEPING BEST COVERAGE IN THE
PIEDMONT AS CONVECTION REDEVELOPS AND THEN PUSHES SE LATER IN THE
DAY. MAY AGAIN NEED LIKELY POPS SE LATER SUNDAY BUT WILL STICK WITH
GOING CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN DECENT DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY. TEMPS AGAIN
WARM/MUGGY SAT NIGHT WITH 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS THEN QUITE WARM
SUNDAY UNDER WEST WIND ALOFT ALLOWING SOME LOW 90S SE AND 80S ELSW.

COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SE BY MONDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS SPILLING IN UNDER THE PASSING UPPER TROF AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FADING MCS TO AFFECT THE FAR WEST LATER MONDAY OTRW
THINKING TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR MUCH MORE THAN DEBRIS CLOUDS AT THIS
POINT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT OVERTOP LIGHT WINDS EXPECT A VERY COOL OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME 40S POSSIBLE VALLEYS PENDING
DEGREE OF FOG LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROF WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLIDING SE
TO NEAR THE OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING FROM
NORTH TO EASTERLY AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ONGOING DRY AIR AND
LOW PWATS IN PLACE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SO KEEPING THINGS DRY
EARLY ON. 5H RIDGING FOLLOWS IN BRIEFLY ON WED BEHIND THE PASSING
TROF AND THE NEXT FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RETURN OF WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH HEATING ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND SUPPORTED BY
THE CAPPED NATURE OF THE GFS RAOBS SO LIMITING POPS TO JUST THE FAR
SW WHERE MAY BE AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING A BIT OTRW PC TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WED. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SE TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS PLENTIFUL BY
LATER THU AND EXPECT WITH HEATING TO SEE BETTER SHRA COVERAGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH DECENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THU NIGHT.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY MAY BE FRIDAY...LEAVING IN
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH BEST FOCUS BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
EAST. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE COOLER/DRIER VALUES OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT AND SW FLOW
REDEVELOPS. HOWEVER NO BIG RUN OF HEAT AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPR
70S/LOW 80S WEST TO MID OR UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MTNS...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MAY MOVE
BACK INTO THE MTNS LATER IN THE EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THUS...ALL OF THE BLACKSBURG TAF SITES WILL HAVE A THREAT OF A
THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...HAVE JUST PUT IN
VICINITY TSTMS TOO ALL OF THE SITES FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
THAT TSTMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF EACH AIRPORT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL AMEND
TAFS IF/WHEN IF APPEARS LIKELY AN AIRPORT WILL BE HIT BY A TSTM.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL- EXCEPTION MAY BE SE
WV SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONT. LOCAL MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. IN ANY EVENT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE DECREASING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY ALL SITES...AND A FEW MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL...FEATURING WEST TO EAST MOVING CLOUD
ELEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND LOSS
OF SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT.

THE WEAK COOL FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD TURN
THE WIND FLOW MORE NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME DRYING. AS
SUCH...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...JUNE 10

ROANOKE     96 IN 1914
LYNCHBURG   98 IN 1914
DANVILLE    99 IN 1963
BLUEFIELD   89 IN 1999
BLACKSBURG  90 IN 1999

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JJ/PM
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-111930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER MAY OCCUR. SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WATER PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VAZ012-013-102045-
PULASKI VA-WYTHE VA-
406 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PULASKI AND WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MAX MEADOWS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PATTERSON AROUND 425 PM.

LAT...LON 3703 8087 3696 8068 3687 8077 3685 8083
      3684 8087 3690 8101

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             4 ENE GLENDALE SPRINGS  36.36N 81.31W
06/10/2011  E0.50 INCH       WILKES             NC   PUBLIC

&&

EH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCZ002-VAZ015-102145-
ALLEGHANY NC-GRAYSON VA-
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES...

AT 519 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ENNICE...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ENNICE AROUND 540 PM.

LAT...LON 3650 8102 3662 8105 3665 8097 3657 8087
      3656 8088 3656 8090 3653 8092