Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY SUNDAY. A MORE COMFORTABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RECLAIMS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED VCNTY OF LYNCHBURG-ROCKY MOUNT VA
COORIDOR AFTER 2AM IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CUT FREE
OF LAST EVENINGS MCS OVER NRN WV/VA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE B4 WEAKENING. RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT
SOME SMALL HAIL HAS ACCOMPANED SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS A MARBLE...60 DBZ CORES TESTING
20KFT ATTMS.

FOR TODAY...IN SPITE OF ONGOING MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...THINK WE HEAT UP ACROSS THE CWA. SHOULD TEST 90 DEG
F ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING LIKE WE HAD
THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN...AND THICKNESSES
SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWN. AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY TO FORM
ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS DEEP CONVECTION...AND
SINCE THIS FEATURE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE CWA LOOK FOR GREATER
SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
SEEN PRECIP TO PARTAKE IN A LITTLE ACTION TODAY. ENTERTAINED HIGH
CHC POPS ALL AREAS TODAY...TENDING A BIT HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA WHERE THE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY RESIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF THE
REGION...EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE AGAIN
TODAY...AND ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING UPSTREAM LIKELY TO PUT US IN
THE CROSS HAIRS FOR THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOMETHING WITHIN RADAR RANGE THROUGH THE
24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION ACTIVITY WILL BE ON- GOING. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH PREFRONTAL ENERGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME STRONG
STORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED BY A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ROTATION WITH ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HAIL BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINES
WINDS. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY. STORMS WILL
TRACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT A PACE OF 20-30 MPH.

85H TEMPERATURES STILL QUITE WARM SATURDAY AND IF CONVECTION COULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...A WARM
START...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHSIDE COULD SEE ONE MORE 90F DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTH THEN EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DRY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED HPC GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN WV INTO NRN VA
THURSDAY EVENING HAS REGENERATED NEW AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER
SOUTHSIDE VA. LOCAL WRF MODEL INDICATES ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TO ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER VCNTY OF KDAN AROUND DAYBREAK
B4 WEAKENING. HAVE AMENDED KLYH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCLUD VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR KDAN ALSO.

ELSEWHERE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING LOOKS DRY...ALTHOUGH
LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG...ESP KBCB WHERE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL
THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN
TODAY...WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL...FEATURING WEST TO EAST
MOVING CLOUD ELEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH LOSS OF
SUBSIDENCE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL. A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND THROUGH
THE REGION BY SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE ALSO PROVIDING A CHANCE THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE.

WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
FORMATION OF LOCAL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE MTNS DURING THE
EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON PERIODS...THEN DRIFTING EAST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...LIGHT FOG
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

THE WEAK COOL FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD TURN THE
WIND FLOW MORE NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME DRYING. AS
SUCH...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
553 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-111000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
553 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY RESULT IN
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WATER PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
239 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VAZ034-035-045-100730-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-
239 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AMHERST...BEDFORD AND CAMPBELL
COUNTIES...

AT 230 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF
LYNCHBURG CITY. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE STORMS NEAR LYNCHBURG WILL PRODUCE PEA-SIZED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.  THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THROUGH
4:00 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
ROANOKE TO BUENA VISTA...AND EAST TO NEAR LYNCHBURG...BEDFORD...AND
SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE.

LAT...LON 3765 7899 3716 7939 3731 7969 3755 7947
      3757 7943 3758 7945 3763 7940 3767 7934
      3772 7931 3780 7924

PEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VAZ033>035-044-045-100800-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-FRANKLIN VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
327 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL...FRANKLIN AND PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTIES...

AT 320 AM EDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM THE
LYNCHBURG AREA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE.  A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG ISLAND...AND MAY
BE PRODUCING MARBLE SIZE HAIL.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOWED VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT.

THROUGH 4:00 AM...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RANDOMLY
DEVELOP IN AN AREA FROM LYNCHBURG TO ROCKY MOUNT. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY CONTAIN PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
OCCUR...AND DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3751 7899 3711 7917 3706 7952 3693 7965
      3707 8007 3715 7999 3714 7996 3722 7985
      3729 7985 3740 7973 3746 7964 3745 7959
      3750 7956 3756 7944 3759 7945 3774 7924

PEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
411 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VAZ022-033>035-044-045-100845-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-FRANKLIN VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
ROANOKE VA-
411 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL...FRANKLIN...PITTSYLVANIA AND ROANOKE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...

AT 400 AM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE LYNCHBURG AREA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
BEDFORD AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.  THESE SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.  THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THROUGH 5AM...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND THE
LYNCHBURG...BEDFORD...AND SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE AREAS.  BY 6:00 AM THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT INTO PARTS OF CAMPBELL...NORTHERN
PITTSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3744 7902 3731 7895 3684 7964 3686 7964
      3684 7965 3684 8003 3708 8010 3746 7962
      3745 7959 3750 7956 3756 7944 3758 7944
      3771 7899 3756 7890 3754 7886

PEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
513 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

VAZ033>035-044>046-058-101000-
AMHERST VA-APPOMATTOX VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-FRANKLIN VA-
HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
513 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
AMHERST...APPOMATTOX...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL...FRANKLIN...HALIFAX AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING....

AT 500 AM EDT...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING BETWEEN BEDFORD AND DANVILLE VIRGINIA. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BETWEEN SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE AND GRETNA...AND
SOME OF THESE STORM MAY CONTAIN PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.
ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 5
MILES AN HOUR...AND BY 6:00 AM...STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO ALONG HIGHWAY
29...BETWEEN GRETNA AND DANVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES.  THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES.

LAT...LON 3734 7872 3654 7950 3654 7952 3672 7968
      3685 7964 3680 7975 3704 7998 3762 7938

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