Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Blacksburg, VA

107 
WWUS51 KRNK 161852
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
252 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC083-143-161902-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
PITTSYLVANIA VA-HALIFAX VA-
252 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3734 7859
      3727 7867 3720 7869 3701 7889 3703 7891
      3705 7897 3704 7899 3712 7918 3777 7854
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842 3769 7824
      3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 220DEG 49KT 3718 7892

$$

VAC011-029-031-037-161945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-APPOMATTOX VA-
252 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM...EASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTHWESTERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HAT CREEK...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF BROOKNEAL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIKE...
  EVERGREEN...
  TOGA...
  BUCKINGHAM...
  AND NEW CANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3734 7859
      3727 7867 3720 7869 3701 7889 3703 7891
      3705 7897 3704 7899 3712 7918 3777 7854
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842 3769 7824
      3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 220DEG 49KT 3718 7892

$$

276 
WWUS51 KRNK 161907
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC011-029-031-037-161945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-APPOMATTOX VA-
307 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM...EASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTHWESTERN
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR EVERGREEN...OR NEAR APPOMATTOX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EVERGREEN...
  TOGA...
  BUCKINGHAM...
  DILLWYN...
  AND NEW CANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

INTENSE RAIN AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3734 7859
      3727 7867 3720 7869 3707 7882 3732 7898
      3777 7854 3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842
      3769 7824 3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 220DEG 49KT 3734 7875

$$

980 
WWUS51 KRNK 161916
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
316 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC031-037-161927-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
CHARLOTTE VA-CAMPBELL VA-
316 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMPBELL AND
NORTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3734 7859
      3732 7863 3725 7867 3722 7874 3741 7890
      3777 7854 3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842
      3769 7824 3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 228DEG 45KT 3741 7866

$$

VAC011-029-161945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-APPOMATTOX VA-
316 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HIXBURG...OR 6 MILES EAST OF APPOMATTOX...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ANDERSONVILLE...
  BUCKINGHAM...
  DILLWYN...
  AND GOLD HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3734 7859
      3732 7863 3725 7867 3722 7874 3741 7890
      3777 7854 3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842
      3769 7824 3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 228DEG 45KT 3741 7866

$$

161 
WWUS51 KRNK 161930
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC011-161938-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-
330 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APPOMATTOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3740 7859
      3740 7861 3762 7869 3777 7854 3776 7851
      3780 7849 3777 7847 3774 7842 3769 7824
      3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 221DEG 40KT 3754 7857

$$

VAC029-161945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-
330 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TOGA...OR 7 MILES WEST OF DILLWYN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUCKINGHAM...
  DILLWYN...
  CENTENARY...
  AND GOLD HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

INTENSE RAIN AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3737 7859 3740 7859
      3740 7861 3762 7869 3777 7854 3776 7851
      3780 7849 3777 7847 3774 7842 3769 7824
      3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 221DEG 40KT 3754 7857

$$

AMS

502 
WWUS51 KRNK 161930 RRA
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC011-161940-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-
330 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APPOMATTOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3741 7861 3759 7871
      3777 7854 3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842
      3769 7824 3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 228DEG 45KT 3752 7850

$$

VAC029-161945-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-
330 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ANDERSONVILLE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DILLWYN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUCKINGHAM...
  DILLWYN...
  GOLD HILL...
  NEW CANTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3741 7861 3759 7871
      3777 7854 3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842
      3769 7824 3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 228DEG 45KT 3752 7850

$$

RCS

927 
WWUS51 KRNK 161935
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC029-161945-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-110416T1945Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-
335 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BUCKINGHAM COUNTY EXPIRES AT
345 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3741 7861 3759 7871
      3777 7854 3776 7851 3780 7849 3774 7842
      3769 7824 3764 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 228DEG 45KT 3756 7844

$$

RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
218 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY...WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS LATEST UPDATE IS TO REFLECT THE EXPANSION OF THE TORNADO
WATCH INTO AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA.
CURRENTLY...THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
STEADILY TO THE EAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 5
PM...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY REMAIN FROM HALIFAX THROUGH
BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES.

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1218 PM/...
THIS LATEST UPDATE IS BEING MADE TO REFLECT THE CANCELLATION OF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE EXTREME WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN
THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...
ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
CLEARED OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST BY EARLY EVENING.

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1026 AM/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS
MORNING... AND AM STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY...WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW.
STILL BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED EXTREME WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...MANY OF WHICH HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND SOME WHICH HAVE RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN.

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE MADE BASICALLY TO LOWER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM LIFTING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD FILL THE HOLES WHICH DEVELOP IN THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IF ANY HOLES DO DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUDS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UPWARD 4 TO 6 DEGREES OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 747 AM/...
A COMPLEX...POTENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO
ILL...BUT WITH MORE STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONE
STRONG WAVE...IN PARTICULAR...IS DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX...WILL RE- ENERGIZE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE SFC FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
LINE WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
FRONT...WE ARE GETTING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
A VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW. PARTS OF WATAUGA COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
GOTTEN OVER 2 INCHES...AND THIS UPSLOPE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE WITH HOURLY RATES OF .25 TO .50...UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS POSES A GENERAL FLOOD THREAT
JUST WITH THE UPSLOPE RAIN...BUT IF A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH AS EXPECTED...IT WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...WITH PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR HIGHER.

NOW THAT RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL BE HARDER TO GET STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE
SFC...BUT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS FORM ABOUT 500 AM
THROUGH 800 AM...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORIES WHERE THEY ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. LOOKING FOR
STRONGER GUSTS MAINLY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND ALSO
THE CLINCH/HOLSTON VALLEY AND ADJACENT MTNS WHERE THEY GET THE
MTN WAVE EFFECT WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND HEADLINES BEFORE NOON.

FINALLY...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SEVERE TSTM THREAT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES. THINK THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY SO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE MUCH. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LINEAR
BANDS OF TSTMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THE MODERATE RISK FOR SVR NOW EXTENDS RIGHT UP TO
DANVILLE...CLIPPING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. FOLKS WHO LIVE FROM
MARTINSVILLE EAST TO SOUTH BOSTON SOUTH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WILL
STILL NEED TO BE ALERT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SVR WX. THIS IS
MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A THREAT OF
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER
MUCH OF THE DAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -2C IN THE MTNS.
IN ADDITION 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE AROUND 6 MBS...WITH 850 MB
WINDS AROUND 450 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. I HAVE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN FAR SW VA AND
NW NC. WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. I ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
COLDER MET GUIDANCE...WITH HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS DROPPING TO
AROUND 32 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OUR WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

MONDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION ANOTHER DAY TO DRY OUT FROM SATURDAYS
HEAVY RAINS...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION.
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY
STARTS OFF WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...MODEL DISAGREE SOMEWHAT AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS MODEL INDICATING
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL
DRAPES THE FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. BELIEVE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 81 DURING TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S...AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL SET US UP
ONCE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO OUR REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND BECOMES STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE AS WE
APPROACH CLOSER IN TIME...AS THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST OF
ROA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH DAN AND LYH BY
16/21Z. THE LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CLEARING THE FORECAST REGION BY 16/23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DOWNSLOPE WEST
WIND. WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TONIGHT FROM
THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

VFR RETURNS TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING POTENTIAL MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST INTO THE MTNS OF SE WV. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SRN BLUE RIDGE FROM BOONE/BLOWING ROCK NORTH
INTO FLOYD COUNTY VA LIKELY RECEIVING 2+ INCHES. IF A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT AS EXPECTED...IT WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
IN ADDITION...WITH SATURATED SOILS IN THE STEEPER
TERRAIN...MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND THE FLASH FLOODING...MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR RISES SAT AFTN INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG PARTS OF THE JAMES...GREENBRIER AND DAN RIVERS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ010>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
     032>035-043.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-
     018>020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>045.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...JJ/NF
SHORT TERM...JJ/NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JJ/RCS
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1249 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ010>020-022>024-035-WVZ042>045-171700-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-WILKES-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
1249 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 1:00 PM AND 6:00 PM TODAY.

NCZ003-020-VAZ032>034-171700-
SURRY-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
1249 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 150 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 1:00 PM AND 6:00 PM TODAY.

VAZ007-009-171700-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
1249 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 1:00 PM AND 6:00 PM TODAY.

NCZ004-VAZ043-171700-
STOKES-HENRY-
1249 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 150 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 1:00 PM AND 6:00 PM TODAY.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-171700-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1249 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 150 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BETWEEN 1:00 PM AND 6:00 PM TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1138 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ003-019-VAZ032-161645-
PATRICK VA-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-
1138 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT PATRICK...SURRY AND WILKES
COUNTIES...

AT 1134 AM EDT...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE ALONG A LINE FROM
BOTTOM TO MOUNTAIN PARK TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RONDA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR STATE ROAD...BURCH...AND CRUTCHFIELD
AROUND 1145 AM...MOUNTAIN PARK...BOTTOM...FAIRVIEW...AND FAIRVIEW
AROUND 1150 AM...DOBSON...LEVEL CROSS AND AND GROUNDHOG MOUNTAIN
AROUND 1155 AM.

LAT...LON 3617 8115 3656 8084 3656 8062 3666 8059
      3665 8049 3674 8046 3674 8040 3680 8039
      3684 8034 3687 8021 3655 8036 3655 8044
      3637 8045 3627 8060 3629 8063 3625 8065
      3628 8077 3625 8079 3624 8087 3616 8088

RCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE HILLSVILLE        36.76N 80.73W
04/16/2011                   CARROLL            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FOOT DIAMETER FORK OF A TREE BROKE THROUGH A ROOFTOP

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
125 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW GALAX HILLSVILLE  36.82N 80.85W
04/16/2011                   CARROLL            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            8 INCH TREE DOWN...BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON 220.

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HILLSVILLE              36.77N 80.73W
04/16/2011                   CARROLL            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW HILLSVILLE        36.82N 80.76W
04/16/2011                   CARROLL            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS FLOODED THROUGHOUT COUNTY.

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROANOKE                 37.28N 79.96W
04/16/2011                   CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   PUBLIC

            10 INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROAD.

0123 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BLACKSBURG              37.23N 80.42W
04/16/2011                   MONTGOMERY         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            KEISTERS BRANCH ROAD...GREATER THAN 6 INCHES FLOWING ON
            ROAD.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             NATURAL BRIDGE          37.63N 79.55W
04/16/2011  E1.00 INCH       ROCKBRIDGE         VA   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW BURNSVILLE        38.15N 79.67W
04/16/2011                   BATH               VA   PUBLIC

            MUDDY RUN ROAD AND DRY RUN ROAD FLOODED...ALSO HAD NICKEL
            SIZE HAIL

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
223 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAZ020-WVZ045-161900-
BATH VA-GREENBRIER WV-
223 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES...

AT 221 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
NEOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LAKE MOOMAW AROUND 230 PM AND MOUNTAIN GROVE
AROUND 235 PM.

LAT...LON 3822 7966 3797 7986 3795 8014 3806 8032
      3808 8030 3805 8024 3804 8016 3806 8011
      3807 7997 3810 7994 3813 7995 3815 7992
      3818 7992 3827 7981

PEM