Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Blacksburg, VA

567 
WWUS51 KRNK 161636
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC035-161646-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110416T1715Z/
CARROLL VA-
1236 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 8006 3739 8000 3733 7987 3732 7985
      3725 7985 3687 8027 3694 8041 3741 8010
      3742 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 222DEG 47KT 3700 8023

$$

VAC063-067-121-161-770-775-161715-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110416T1715Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-FRANKLIN VA-FLOYD VA-
MONTGOMERY VA-
1236 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF ROANOKE...THE CITY OF SALEM... SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...NORTHEASTERN FLOYD...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND ROANOKE
COUNTIES...

AT 1234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TERRYS FORK...OR 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF FLOYD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHECK...
  COPPER HILL...
  BENT MOUNTAIN...
  POAGES MILL...
  CAVE SPRING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 8006 3739 8000 3733 7987 3732 7985
      3725 7985 3687 8027 3694 8041 3741 8010
      3742 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 222DEG 47KT 3700 8023

$$

RCS

831 
WWUS51 KRNK 161657
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC063-121-161707-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110416T1715Z/
FLOYD VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
1257 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 7986 3731 7985 3725 7985 3703 8009
      3706 8012 3707 8011 3712 8012 3711 8018
      3741 8010 3742 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 221DEG 40KT 3718 8001

$$

VAC067-161-770-775-161715-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110416T1715Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-FRANKLIN VA-
1257 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF ROANOKE...THE CITY OF SALEM... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN
AND ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 1253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POAGES MILL...OR NEAR
BENT MOUNTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POAGES MILL...
  ROANOKE MOUNTAIN...
  ROANOKE...
  VINTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 7986 3731 7985 3725 7985 3703 8009
      3706 8012 3707 8011 3712 8012 3711 8018
      3741 8010 3742 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 221DEG 40KT 3718 8001

$$

RCS

968 
WWUS51 KRNK 161709
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAC067-161-770-775-161719-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110416T1715Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-FRANKLIN VA-
109 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF ROANOKE...THE CITY
OF SALEM...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND ROANOKE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 115
PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING WILL EXIT THE 
WARNED AREA. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3732 7986 3731 7985 3725 7985 3703 8009
      3706 8012 3707 8011 3712 8012 3711 8018
      3741 8010 3742 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 221DEG 40KT 3728 7990

$$

RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1026 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY...WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS MORNING...
AND AM STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY...WHICH IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. STILL
BELIEVE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED EXTREME WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...MANY OF WHICH HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND SOME WHICH HAVE RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN.

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE MADE BASICALLY TO LOWER TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM LIFTING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD FILL THE HOLES WHICH DEVELOP IN THE LOWER CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IF ANY HOLES DO DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUDS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL SPIKE UPWARD 4 TO 6 DEGREES OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 747 AM/...
A COMPLEX...POTENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO
ILL...BUT WITH MORE STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONE
STRONG WAVE...IN PARTICULAR...IS DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX...WILL RE- ENERGIZE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE SFC FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
LINE WILL THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
FRONT...WE ARE GETTING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
A VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW. PARTS OF WATAUGA COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
GOTTEN OVER 2 INCHES...AND THIS UPSLOPE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE WITH HOURLY RATES OF .25 TO .50...UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS POSES A GENERAL FLOOD THREAT
JUST WITH THE UPSLOPE RAIN...BUT IF A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH AS EXPECTED...IT WOULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...WITH PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR HIGHER.

NOW THAT RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL BE HARDER TO GET STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE
SFC...BUT THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS FORM ABOUT 500 AM
THROUGH 800 AM...SO WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORIES WHERE THEY ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. LOOKING FOR
STRONGER GUSTS MAINLY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND ALSO
THE CLINCH/HOLSTON VALLEY AND ADJACENT MTNS WHERE THEY GET THE
MTN WAVE EFFECT WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND HEADLINES BEFORE NOON.

FINALLY...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SEVERE TSTM THREAT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES. THINK THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY SO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE MUCH. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LINEAR
BANDS OF TSTMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THE MODERATE RISK FOR SVR NOW EXTENDS RIGHT UP TO
DANVILLE...CLIPPING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. FOLKS WHO LIVE FROM
MARTINSVILLE EAST TO SOUTH BOSTON SOUTH INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WILL
STILL NEED TO BE ALERT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SVR WX. THIS IS
MENTIONED IN THE HWO. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A THREAT OF
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER
MUCH OF THE DAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -2C IN THE MTNS.
IN ADDITION 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE AROUND 6 MBS...WITH 850 MB
WINDS AROUND 450 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. I HAVE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 50 MPH IN THE MTNS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN FAR SW VA AND
NW NC. WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. I ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
COLDER MET GUIDANCE...WITH HIGH ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS DROPPING TO
AROUND 32 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OUR WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

MONDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION ANOTHER DAY TO DRY OUT FROM SATURDAYS
HEAVY RAINS...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION.
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY
STARTS OFF WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...MODEL DISAGREE SOMEWHAT AS TO THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS MODEL INDICATING
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL
DRAPES THE FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. BELIEVE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR REGION...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 81 DURING TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S...AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL SET US UP
ONCE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO OUR REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND BECOMES STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE AS WE
APPROACH CLOSER IN TIME...AS THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIEST SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE IN SW VA. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
MVFR...WITH OCNL IFR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HEAVIER
RAIN THRU THE MORNING WILL MAINLY AFFECT ROA AND LYH. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN AN AVIATION CONCERN THRU THE MORNING.
SFC GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED MOST LOCATIONS...BUT WINDS AS STRONG AS
45 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE WITHIN 2000 FT OF THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTNS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...LASTING THRU 100 AM TO NOON.

AS A SLOW MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AROUND NOON IN THE FAR WESTERN MTNS...AND EXITING EAST
OF DANVILLE AFTER 400 PM...ONE OR MORE LINES OF STRONG CONVECTION
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN THE PIEDMONT. DANVILLE HAS THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS...SO I HAVE KEPT VCNTY TSTMS TO THE
DANVILLE TAF.

VFR RETURNS BY THIS EVENING EAST OF THE MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A DOWNSLOPE WEST WIND. WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS WILL SEE
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

VFR RETURNS TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING POTENTIAL MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WEST INTO THE MTNS OF SE WV. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SRN BLUE RIDGE FROM BOONE/BLOWING ROCK NORTH
INTO FLOYD COUNTY VA LIKELY RECEIVING 2+ INCHES. IF A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT AS EXPECTED...IT WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
IN ADDITION...WITH SATURATED SOILS IN THE STEEPER
TERRAIN...MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND THE FLASH FLOODING...MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR RISES SAT AFTN INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG PARTS OF THE JAMES...GREENBRIER AND DAN RIVERS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ011>020.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ010>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ001>003-
     018>020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ043>045.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042>045.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ/NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JJ/RCS
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ012>020-170945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-170945-
SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ011-WVZ043>045-170945-
GILES-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009-170945-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ004-VAZ043-045>047-170945-
STOKES-HENRY-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...
WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ010-WVZ042-170945-
BLAND-MERCER-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044-058-059-170945-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
531 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
752 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

VAZ016>020-022>024-032>035-161415-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...
CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...
FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...
BEDFORD...AMHERST
752 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SOME PONDING WATER ON ROADS THIS MORNING...

SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT
AREAS...NORTH INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 730 PM AND 1030 PM WILL AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EXCEEDING ONE
AND A HALF INCHES. THIS WILL CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON THE
HIGHWAYS AND FILL UP AREA DITCHES AS WELL. SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO
RESPOND...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF YOU LIVE NEAR ONE.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2
4.

NCZ001>003-019-VAZ015-161415-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-GRAYSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
WILKESBORO...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY
752 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS FREQUENT THIS MORNING...BUT
MORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING FROM EASTERN
TENNESSEE. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL AVERAGE
ONE HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY.
THOSE TRAVELING WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION...AS WATER WILL BE
PONDING ON THE ROADS...AND SOME ROADSIDE DITCHES WILL ALSO BE
RUNNING OVER WITH WATER. SMALL STREAMS IN THE AREA CAN BE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL BY MID MORNING.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2
4.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
811 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TAZEWELL          37.13N 81.48W
04/15/2011  M58.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           VA   MESONET

            MEASURED AT TAZEWELL MIDDLE SCHOOL

1118 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE CHILHOWIE         36.73N 81.66W
04/15/2011                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR TOWN SPRINGS ROAD.

1130 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE CHILHOWIE         36.83N 81.67W
04/15/2011                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE DOWN ON APPLE VALLEY ROAD.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ001-002-VAZ012-015-016-161430-
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-CARROLL VA-GRAYSON VA-WYTHE VA-
958 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY...ASHE...CARROLL...
GRAYSON AND WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 955 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER JEFFERSON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MOUTH OF WILSON...BRIDLE
CREEK...INDEPENDENCE...AND CRIPPLE CREEK THROUGH 1030 AM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3675 8131 3676 8126 3679 8127 3698 8111
      3684 8089 3631 8143 3642 8161

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE BLOWING ROCK      36.19N 81.65W
04/16/2011                   WATAUGA            NC   PUBLIC

            MUDSLIDE REPORTED ON FAIRWAY DRIVE

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE BLOWING ROCK      36.18N 81.64W
04/16/2011                   WATAUGA            NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MUDSLIDE REPORTED ON NILEY COOK ROAD

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1127 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ002-VAZ011>020-022>024-WVZ044-045-161630-
ALLEGHANY VA-ALLEGHANY NC-BATH VA-BOTETOURT VA-CARROLL VA-CRAIG VA-
FLOYD VA-GILES VA-GRAYSON VA-GREENBRIER WV-MONROE WV-MONTGOMERY VA-
PULASKI VA-ROANOKE VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-WYTHE VA-
1127 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY...BATH...
BOTETOURT...CARROLL...CRAIG...FLOYD...GILES...GRAYSON...GREENBRIER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PULASKI...ROANOKE...ROCKBRIDGE AND WYTHE
COUNTIES...

AT 1120 AM EDT...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 4
MILES SOUTH OF UNION TO SPARTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR GLACE...ROARING MOUNTAIN SUMMIT...
GREENBRIER STATE FOREST...AND MOUNTAIN LAKE AROUND 1135 AM...MONCOVE
LAKE STATE PARK...WAITEVILLE...ALLISONIA...AND PATTERSON AROUND 1140
AM...GALAX HILLSVILLE AIRPORT AND AND ALLEGHANY AROUND 1145 AM.

LAT...LON 3822 7970 3820 7955 3816 7952 3817 7945
      3811 7948 3808 7946 3717 8001 3716 8009
      3712 8013 3703 8011 3695 8014 3695 8018
      3690 8020 3642 8115 3759 8049 3807 8000
      3807 7996 3827 7979

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1138 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCZ003-019-VAZ032-161645-
PATRICK VA-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-
1138 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT PATRICK...SURRY AND WILKES
COUNTIES...

AT 1134 AM EDT...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE ALONG A LINE FROM
BOTTOM TO MOUNTAIN PARK TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RONDA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR STATE ROAD...BURCH...AND CRUTCHFIELD
AROUND 1145 AM...MOUNTAIN PARK...BOTTOM...FAIRVIEW...AND FAIRVIEW
AROUND 1150 AM...DOBSON...LEVEL CROSS AND AND GROUNDHOG MOUNTAIN
AROUND 1155 AM.

LAT...LON 3617 8115 3656 8084 3656 8062 3666 8059
      3665 8049 3674 8046 3674 8040 3680 8039
      3684 8034 3687 8021 3655 8036 3655 8044
      3637 8045 3627 8060 3629 8063 3625 8065
      3628 8077 3625 8079 3624 8087 3616 8088

RCS