Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Blacksburg, VA

May 26, 20118 counties in Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 26, 2011, 8:57 PM EDT for 8 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 63 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 26, 2011, 8:57 PM EDT (00:57 UTC)
Expired: May 26, 2011, 10:00 PM EDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Alleghany County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Roanoke County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 26, 9:00 PM EDT	HAIL 0.75	Shawsville, VA

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 26, 1:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 278 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 254 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

997 
WUUS51 KRNK 270057
SVRRNK
VAC005-023-045-121-161-580-770-775-270200-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0211.110527T0057Z-110527T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
857 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
  CITY OF COVINGTON IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
  NORTHWESTERN CITY OF ROANOKE IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
  CITY OF SALEM IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
  CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
  BOTETOURT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
  ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
  EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

* AT 854 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  SHAWSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHAWSVILLE...
  ELLISTON...
  ELLISTON-LAFAYETTE...
  BRADSHAW...
  CATAWBA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF QUARTER OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 7967 3766 7968 3764 7966 3716 8007
      3712 8013 3707 8029 3713 8045 3750 8032
      3752 8029 3754 8029 3753 8031 3759 8029
      3762 8022 3765 8027 3783 8020 3788 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 212DEG 25KT 3717 8029

$$

WERT

4 follow-up statements

857 
WWUS51 KRNK 270114
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
914 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

VAC005-023-045-121-161-580-770-775-270200-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110527T0200Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-
CRAIG VA-BOTETOURT VA-ALLEGHANY VA-MONTGOMERY VA-
914 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF COVINGTON...THE CITY OF ROANOKE...THE CITY OF
SALEM... EASTERN MONTGOMERY...ALLEGHANY...BOTETOURT...CRAIG AND
ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BRADSHAW...OR NEAR CATAWBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BRADSHAW...
  CATAWBA...
  ABBOTT...
  NEW CASTLE...
  ORISKANY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 7967 3766 7968 3764 7966 3716 8007
      3712 8013 3707 8029 3713 8045 3750 8032
      3752 8029 3754 8029 3753 8031 3759 8029
      3762 8022 3765 8027 3783 8020 3788 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 212DEG 25KT 3734 8016

$$

WERT

063 
WWUS51 KRNK 270137
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
937 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

VAC770-775-270147-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110527T0200Z/
CITY OF ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-
937 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF ROANOKE...THE CITY
OF SALEM... IS CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 7987 3776 7976 3730 8013 3707 8029
      3713 8045 3750 8032 3752 8029 3754 8029
      3753 8031 3758 8029 3762 8022 3765 8027
      3783 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 222DEG 31KT 3734 8033

$$

VAC005-023-045-121-161-580-270200-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110527T0200Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-CRAIG VA-BOTETOURT VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
MONTGOMERY VA-
937 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF COVINGTON... EASTERN MONTGOMERY...ALLEGHANY...
NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT...CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 933 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MC DONALDS MILL...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BLACKSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SINKING CREEK...
  NEW CASTLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 7987 3776 7976 3730 8013 3707 8029
      3713 8045 3750 8032 3752 8029 3754 8029
      3753 8031 3758 8029 3762 8022 3765 8027
      3783 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 222DEG 31KT 3734 8033

$$

WERT

781 
WWUS51 KRNK 270153
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

VAC005-023-045-121-161-580-270200-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110527T0200Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-CRAIG VA-BOTETOURT VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
MONTGOMERY VA-
953 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF COVINGTON... EASTERN MONTGOMERY...ALLEGHANY...
NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT...CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 950 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAIG SPRINGS...OR NEAR SINKING CREEK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRAIG SPRINGS...
  NEW CASTLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 7987 3776 7976 3730 8013 3707 8029
      3713 8045 3750 8032 3752 8029 3754 8029
      3753 8031 3758 8029 3762 8022 3765 8027
      3783 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 222DEG 31KT 3750 8021

$$

WERT

941 
WWUS51 KRNK 270158
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
958 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

VAC005-023-045-121-161-580-270207-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-110527T0200Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-CRAIG VA-BOTETOURT VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
MONTGOMERY VA-
958 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF COVINGTON...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY...ALLEGHANY...NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT...CRAIG AND
NORTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1000 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...SMALL 
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 1030 PM EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT 
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN 
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3788 7987 3776 7976 3730 8013 3707 8029
      3713 8045 3750 8032 3752 8029 3754 8029
      3753 8031 3758 8029 3762 8022 3765 8027
      3783 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 222DEG 31KT 3753 8018

$$

WERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 26, 8:43 PM EDT, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 26, 8:43 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
843 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COOL FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...REDUCING THE THREAT OF RAIN...BUT
BRINGING A STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE GOING SVR WATCH OUT TO MIDNIGHT AND TO
EXTEND IT FARTHER EAST TO INCLUDE ANOTHER ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES
OUT TO ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. STORMS CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW DESPITE LACK OF REAL JUICY
DEWPOINTS. MANY ARE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WILL
LIKELY DO SO UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS A BIT MORE. NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR NOW UNTIL STORMS WIND DOWN SOME LATER THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

PROXIMITY OF TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSES TO STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND
AN APPROPRIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AREA.

HOWEVER...NEXT STRONG UPPER TROF SLAMMING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE NATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SUCH THAT
THE OHIO VALLEY TROF WILL BEGIN TO FILL/LIFT LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY AS THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LOST THIS
EVENING...PROGRESSION OF THETA-E RIDGE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM LINE OF CONVECTION RACING OUT EAST AHEAD OF
DISSIPATING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY LINE UP OVER OR NEAR THE
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND
ACROSS MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. DIMINISHING SHEAR AND SUPPRESSED
INSOLATION DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TOMORROW.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...INSUFFICIENT PERSISTENT FORCING APPEARS TO
EXIST TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAKENING
SHEAR WITH TIME...SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ONE OR TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND
CLOUDS...EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND TOOK A MODEL BLEND CONSISTENT
WITH EXISTING SET OF GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF
REGION UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING PAST SUNSET FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS VALUES
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ERODING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.
THEREFORE...USED THE WARMER GFS MOS VALUES FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES PUSHING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S EXPECTED VALUES. WENT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS WARM...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH A STRAY STORM IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FLATTENS THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES...AS GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW 850MB TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN...AND
THETA-E AXIS IN PLACE.

LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND MAINLY DRIER AIR...BUT WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY GENERATED WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING...IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS KBCB BY 01Z...9PM. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THEM TO DIMINISH.

AS UPPER FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
PROGRESSION OF LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ARRESTED...SUCH THAT
THREAT OF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT IMPACT KROA AND
POINTS EAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THINKING NOW THAT MOST WILL PROBABLY BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLYH AND KDAN.

ONCE THEY ARRIVE...LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST...SO AT LEAST AREAS OF MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...WITH MORE LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS ALONG/NEAR
THE HIGHER RIDGES WHERE SOME RIDGE TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THOUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND
PERHAPS WELL INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVELY STAGNANT AIR MASS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TYPICALLY...THIS RESULTS IN
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST LATE NIGHT
TO MID MORNING MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...GIVING WAY TO VFR
WEATHER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
HEATED AND BETTER MIXED. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/WERT
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/WERT

Hazardous weather outlook, May 26, 8:33 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
833 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NCZ004-VAZ033>035-043-280045-
STOKES-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
833 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ014-016-017-022>024-032-280045-
SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
833 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-018>020-WVZ042>045-280045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
833 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-280045-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
833 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 26, 8:38 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
838 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             5 ENE GALAX CITY        36.70N 80.83W
05/26/2011  E1.50 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

0805 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WOODLAWN          36.72N 80.83W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            VA   PUBLIC

0802 PM     HAIL             CERES                   37.02N 81.35W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       BLAND              VA   PUBLIC

0802 PM     HAIL             1 W ALUM RIDGE          36.93N 80.48W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       FLOYD              VA   PUBLIC

&&

CHENARD

Local storm report, May 26, 8:39 PM EDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
839 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             1 W ALUM RIDGE          36.93N 80.48W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       FLOYD              VA   PUBLIC

&&

CHENARD

Local storm report, May 26, 8:41 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
841 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             3 S PEARISBURG          37.28N 80.74W
05/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       GILES              VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL FELL ON KEFFER ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

Local storm report, May 26, 8:52 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
852 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             4 S CHRISTIANSBURG      37.09N 80.39W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

&&

CHENARD

Local storm report, May 26, 8:53 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
853 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW RAINELLE           37.95N 80.80W
05/26/2011                   GREENBRIER         WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON ROUTE 20 IN LILLY PARK.

&&

HYSELL

Local storm report, May 26, 8:54 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
854 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             3 E CHRISTIANSBURG      37.14N 80.35W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

&&

CHENARD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 26, 8:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Pulaski, Wythe, City of Galax	42 min
May 26, 8:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bland, Carroll, Grayson, Pulaski, Wythe	48 min
May 26, 8:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Craig, Giles, Pulaski	44 min
May 26, 8:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax	59 min
May 26, 8:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, Wythe, City of Radford	62 min
May 26, 9:04 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Grayson, Pulaski, Wythe, City of Galax	4 hr
May 26, 9:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax	60 min
May 26, 9:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Patrick	67 min
May 26, 10:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Grayson, Montgomery, Pulaski, Wythe and 2 more	58 min
May 26, 10:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, City of Covington	48 min
May 26, 10:36 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Floyd, Giles and 5 more	6 hr
May 26, 10:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Henry, Patrick	53 min
May 26, 10:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Franklin, Henry, Patrick	62 min
May 27, 12:09 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin, City of Martinsville, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	36 min
May 27, 12:13 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Franklin, Pittsylvania and 2 more	47 min
May 27, 12:40 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt, Roanoke, Rockbridge	50 min
May 27, 1:13 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	17 min
May 27, 6:08 AM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Bland, Carroll, Craig, Floyd and 8 more	16 hr
May 27, 1:21 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Charlotte, Halifax	54 min
May 27, 2:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Franklin, Henry, Pittsylvania, City of Danville, City of Martinsville	57 min
May 27, 2:54 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	City of Danville	3 hr
May 27, 3:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania and 1 more	60 min
May 27, 3:52 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	City of Lynchburg	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.