Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Blacksburg, VA

319 
WWUS51 KRNK 270044
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
844 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NCC189-270054-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-110527T0115Z/
WATAUGA NC-
844 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WATAUGA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8146 3646 8133 3672 8096 3660 8077
      3611 8138 3609 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 208DEG 25KT 3656 8110

$$

NCC005-009-171-193-VAC035-077-640-270115-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-110527T0115Z/
ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-SURRY NC-WILKES NC-CITY OF GALAX VA-GRAYSON VA-
CARROLL VA-
844 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF GALAX... SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN
GRAYSON...NORTHWESTERN WILKES...NORTHWESTERN SURRY...SOUTHEASTERN
ASHE AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 841 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TWIN OAKS...OR NEAR SPARTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TWIN OAKS...
  ENNICE...
  BAYWOOD...
  GALAX CITY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

LARGE HAIL AND...OR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8146 3646 8133 3672 8096 3660 8077
      3611 8138 3609 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 208DEG 25KT 3656 8110

$$

WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COOL FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...REDUCING THE THREAT OF RAIN...BUT
BRINGING A STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THAT WILL LIKELY
LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PROXIMITY OF TROF OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSES TO STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND
AN APPROPRIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AREA.

HOWEVER...NEXT STRONG UPPER TROF SLAMMING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE NATION WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SUCH THAT
THE OHIO VALLEY TROF WILL BEGIN TO FILL/LIFT LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY AS THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS LOST THIS
EVENING...PROGRESSION OF THETA-E RIDGE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM LINE OF CONVECTION RACING OUT EAST AHEAD OF
DISSIPATING COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY LINE UP OVER OR NEAR THE
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND
ACROSS MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. DIMINISHING SHEAR AND SUPPRESSED
INSOLATION DUE TO CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUPPRESS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TOMORROW.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...INSUFFICIENT PERSISTENT FORCING APPEARS TO
EXIST TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAKENING
SHEAR WITH TIME...SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ONE OR TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND
CLOUDS...EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND TOOK A MODEL BLEND CONSISTENT
WITH EXISTING SET OF GRIDDED FIELDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING MOST OF
REGION UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING PAST SUNSET FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS VALUES
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ERODING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.
THEREFORE...USED THE WARMER GFS MOS VALUES FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES PUSHING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S EXPECTED VALUES. WENT A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS WARM...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH A STRAY STORM IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER FLATTENS THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE THE NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES...AS GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW 850MB TEMPS 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN...AND
THETA-E AXIS IN PLACE.

LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND MAINLY DRIER AIR...BUT WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY GENERATED WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING...IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TERMINAL FORECAST POINTS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS KBCB BY 01Z...9PM. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES THEM TO DIMINISH.

AS UPPER FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
PROGRESSION OF LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ARRESTED...SUCH THAT
THREAT OF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT IMPACT KROA AND
POINTS EAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THINKING NOW THAT MOST WILL PROBABLY BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLYH AND KDAN.

ONCE THEY ARRIVE...LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA TO THE EAST...SO AT LEAST AREAS OF MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...WITH MORE LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS ALONG/NEAR
THE HIGHER RIDGES WHERE SOME RIDGE TOP OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THOUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND
PERHAPS WELL INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVELY STAGNANT AIR MASS WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TYPICALLY...THIS RESULTS IN
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST LATE NIGHT
TO MID MORNING MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...GIVING WAY TO VFR
WEATHER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
HEATED AND BETTER MIXED. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE VICINITY OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/WERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035-043-271815-
SURRY-STOKES-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ014-271815-
MONTGOMERY-
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-018>020-WVZ042>045-271815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-271815-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
203 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
727 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             3 E BOONE               36.21N 81.61W
05/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FELL ON BROWNS CHAPEL ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             WEST JEFFERSON          36.40N 81.50W
05/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       ASHE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             5 E LANSING             36.50N 81.43W
05/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       ASHE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL FELL ON MOUTH OF SILAS CREEK ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
748 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SALTVILLE          36.90N 81.74W
05/26/2011                   SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES AND LIMBS DOWN.

&&

CHENARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
813 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             3 E BOONE               36.21N 81.61W
05/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL ON CARTERVILLE HEIGHTS ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
816 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             2 NW MAX MEADOWS        36.98N 80.96W
05/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       WYTHE              VA   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL ON CARTERVILLE HEIGHTS ROAD.

&&

HYSELL