Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES SLOWLY TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL WAVES APPROACHES SUNDAY. WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OH AND WESTERN KY.
MORNING DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
ASSOCIATED LOW AND MID LVL CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FOLLOW
SUIT...WITH MUCH OF THE MTNS STUCK IN THE CLOUDS TDY. LAST FEW HRS
HAVE SEEN THE STRATOCU FINALLY STARTING TO MIX OUT THOUGH.

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED RIGHT ON CUE WITH APPROACH OF YET
ANOTHER UPR DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB WITH THIS
AT LEAST IN THE FORCING FIELDS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A
CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS USING VORT.

SVR POTENTIAL BEST ALONG OH RVR AND ACROSS COAL FIELDS WHERE BEST
SHEAR RESIDES ALONG WITH GREATEST AMNT OF SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED.
STILL WORRIED ABOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WHAT EFFECTS IT WILL
HAVE FARTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LACK OF MUCH INSOLATION
TDY ACROSS THE MTNS. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOW TOPPED AND
ABSENT OF MUCH LIGHTNING. HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR WEAK ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE CELLS.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND BECOME RATHER
DIFFUSE. HAVE FRONT IN SE OH ARND 00Z...PERHAPS CHECKING UP FOR A
TIME BEFORE RESUMING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. MAY TAKE TILL 12Z
TO CLR MTNS...WAITING FOR UPR TROF TO GO NEG TILT. HAVE ANOTHER
LINE OF LKLY POPS WITH ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR AIR DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR LCL WATER PROBLEMS DESPITE PWATS COMING
DOWN. THINKING IS AS FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO FLOW COULD SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF TRAINING.

FRONT...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW AS UPR TROF AND
FRESHER AIRMASS WORKS IN. MODELS AGREE IN TAKING A DISTURBANCE
THRU TOMORROW AFTN WITH UPR TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK OF
SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA OR CONVECTION IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVEN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER TOMORROW
WITH UPR TROF AND DIURNAL HEATING AIDING IN CU DEVELOPMENT.

HAVE GONE ON HIGH SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND A BLEND FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW. MAY TAKE TILL TOMORROW AFTN FOR LWR DWPTS TO
ARRIVE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE UPR 70S SOUTH AND MID/LOW 70S
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACTIVITY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...TO LIFT NORTH LATER
SUNDAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORM ACTIVITY RETURNS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE WITH
SOME MINOR PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED. THEREFORE...INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH ACROSS WV SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NORTH OF WV BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES PASSING
ALOFT. THEREFORE...REARRANGED POPS AND WX LOCATIONS HAVING CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ATTM TUESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MID WEDNESDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...BLENDED GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
BKN LINE OF SHRA AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE OH...NE
KY AND WESTERN WV ASSOCIATED WITH UPR AIR DISTURBANCE AND APPROACH
OF COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KHTS AND KPKB THRU
20Z...AND KCRW AND KCKB AFTER 20Z. MTN TERMINALS MAY ESCAPE
CONVECTION TIL ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEARS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE CONVECTION ACROSS TERMINALS. VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE OH AFTER 00Z...SLOWLY CLEARING OH RVR
BY 06Z...AND EXITING MTNS AFTER 12Z WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE IN
NATURE. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION
WITH FRONT ITSELF TONIGHT...HENCE LEAVING CB IN MOST OF THE TAF
SITES TO 06Z.

SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR
IN FCST. ANY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF FRI MORNING...WITH A
REDEVELOPMENT OF CU AND STRATOCU WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. SOME
LOW TOPPED SHRA OR CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTN AS UPR DISTURBANCE
MOVES THRU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR MAY NOT
FORM AFTER 06Z AS FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FROM INTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-241800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 541 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-VAZ003-004-WVZ009>011-017>020-028>040-046-
047-241800-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-DICKENSON-
BUCHANAN-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
528 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

WVZ015-026-027-035>037-232230-
BOONE WV-CLAY WV-FAYETTE WV-KANAWHA WV-NICHOLAS WV-RALEIGH WV-
528 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BOONE...FAYETTE...
NORTHERN RALEIGH...SOUTHEASTERN KANAWHA...SOUTHERN NICHOLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 526 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 12 MILES
EAST OF CHARLESTON TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR DAWES...PRENTER...SHARON...AND PRATT AROUND
535 PM...ESKDALE...SYLVESTER...AND HANDLEY AROUND 540 PM...LEEWOOD...
POND GAP AND WHITESVILLE AROUND 545 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...THE WEST VIRGINIA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 88.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3801 8180 3824 8154 3840 8147 3829 8064
      3808 8078 3809 8088 3806 8087 3806 8080
      3803 8082 3772 8121

28