Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. ITS VICINITY WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK WAVE AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION PASSING SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUN TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SMALL WAVES COMING AROUND THE LOW COULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED PRECIP OVER NIGHT.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND MAX
TEMP FORECAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE VERTICALLY STACKED REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL SFC REFLECTIONS...EVIDENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND CONVERGENCE FIELD...ALONG WITH SFC CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY JUICY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPONTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES...DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS...AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN
12-13KFT PER NAM/GFS MODELS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

UNDER THIS PARAMETERS...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY TWO COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
FOR DAY THREE COVERING SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND SOME WV
COUNTIES BORDERING THE OH RIVER.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS STRONGER CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY LYING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SLOPES...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND STILL HEALTHY
SEVERE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WV AND PORTIONS OF VA FRI
NIGHT.

BLENDED ECMWF/SREF AND GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY...THE NAM SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER BY MID DAY . DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS OUTPUT...WENT CLOSER TO GMOS/HPC SOLUTIONS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES REALLY DROP AS UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST...SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN LAKES...UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXACT
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN...BUT EXPANSE OF INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH SHOULD
BE DOMINANT ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS CIGS AND VSBYS
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT HAVE NOT DONE ANYTHING WITH
FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR SHOWERS MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. BRIEF IFR VALLEY FOG COULD OCCUR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR FROM INTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-221745-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND. HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-221745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND. HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-212115-
BOYD KY-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-
WAYNE WV-
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...TOWARD LAWRENCE COUNTY OHIO...AND WAYNE AND
CABELL COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 445 PM EDT...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL...ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THE LARGEST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEST OF CARTER
CAVES...HEADING TOWARD SOUTH SHORE AND GREENUP.  OTHERS WERE NEAR
WEBBVILLE OF WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY...PLUS JUST NORTH OF
GRAYSON...TOWARD OLDTOWN.

A HALF INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL IN JUST 15 MINUTES...CAUSING STREET
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  IN RURAL AREAS...RUNOFF MAY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCH LINES AND SPILL ACROSS ROADS...OR FULL OFF HILLSIDES.

MOTORISTS MAY ENCOUNTER BRIEF LOW ROAD VISIBILITY.  PULL SAFELY OFF
TO THE SIDE OF THE ROAD...IF DRIVING BECOMES DANGEROUS IN THE
DOWNPOUR.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 156 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14
IN WEST VIRGINIA.

IF REPETITIVE SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE SAME STREAMS...OR STORMS
PULSE STRONGER...BRIEF WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3873 8303 3876 8289 3858 8281 3860 8275
      3868 8277 3869 8271 3884 8266 3884 8258
      3878 8258 3878 8252 3862 8241 3802 8222
      3789 8237 3795 8256 3788 8265 3809 8293
      3817 8292 3819 8304 3834 8324

22

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