Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. ITS VICINITY WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK WAVE AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION PASSING SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUN TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SMALL WAVES COMING AROUND THE LOW COULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED PRECIP OVER NIGHT.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAVE NOT STRAYED MUCH FROM CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND MAX
TEMP FORECAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE VERTICALLY STACKED REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL SFC REFLECTIONS...EVIDENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND CONVERGENCE FIELD...ALONG WITH SFC CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY JUICY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPONTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES...DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS...AND FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN
12-13KFT PER NAM/GFS MODELS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

UNDER THIS PARAMETERS...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY TWO COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA...AND
FOR DAY THREE COVERING SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND SOME WV
COUNTIES BORDERING THE OH RIVER.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS STRONGER CONVERGENCE
ALONG BOUNDARY LYING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SLOPES...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND STILL HEALTHY
SEVERE ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS. WILL NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WV AND PORTIONS OF VA FRI
NIGHT.

BLENDED ECMWF/SREF AND GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY SATURDAY...THE NAM SUGGEST COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER BY MID DAY . DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS OUTPUT...WENT CLOSER TO GMOS/HPC SOLUTIONS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...RAIN CHANCES REALLY DROP AS UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST...SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN LAKES...UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXACT
PLACEMENT UNCERTAIN...BUT EXPANSE OF INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH SHOULD
BE DOMINANT ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS CIGS AND VSBYS
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT HAVE NOT DONE ANYTHING WITH
FOG.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR SHOWERS MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. BRIEF IFR VALLEY FOG COULD OCCUR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR FROM INTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ008>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-221745-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND. HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>007-221745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND. HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WVZ046-047-211815-
POCAHONTAS WV-RANDOLPH WV-
143 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

AT 142 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
CASS SCENIC RAILROAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR DURBIN AROUND 150 PM...BARTOW AROUND 200 PM
AND BOYER AROUND 210 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3855 7967 3851 7966 3849 7969 3843 7968
      3839 7972 3849 8002 3863 7992 3858 7966
      3857 7965

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WVZ025-026-034-035-211930-
BOONE WV-LOGAN WV-RALEIGH WV-WYOMING WV-
307 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN
BOONE...SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN AND WESTERN RALEIGH COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PINEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR OCEANA AROUND 320 PM AND KOPPERSTON AROUND
330 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3762 8180 3766 8181 3766 8182 3772 8185
      3795 8140 3765 8121 3755 8177

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WVZ034>036-212015-
FAYETTE WV-RALEIGH WV-WYOMING WV-
343 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FAYETTE...NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING AND RALEIGH COUNTIES...

AT 341 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF
PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BOLT AROUND 400 PM AND GLEN DANIEL AROUND 415
PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 NEAR BECKLEY
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 128...THE WEST VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 39 AND 60.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3775 8169 3779 8163 3779 8160 3777 8157
      3779 8152 3782 8152 3783 8155 3803 8122
      3777 8104 3758 8158

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WVZ035-036-212100-
FAYETTE WV-RALEIGH WV-
429 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RALEIGH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BECKLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CRAB ORCHARD AROUND 440 PM...MABSCOTT AROUND
450 PM AND STANAFORD AROUND 500 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 NEAR BECKLEY
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 137...THE WEST VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 34 AND 56.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3762 8134 3775 8143 3807 8114 3785 8084
      3782 8093 3778 8090 3759 8130

09