Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
IT...WEAKENING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO ADJUST COVERAGE PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. REMOVE POPS ACROSS A DIAGONAL SECTIONS OF OUR
CWA...KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
ATTRIBUTES ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WV. LIKELY
POPS WITH SCATTERED STORMS WERE LEFT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA.

WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY...AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES
PASSING THROUGH...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE...STORMS...SOME HAILER...WILL BACK BUILD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WV THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. BY
12Z...ALL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WEAK WAVES
RIPPLE THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT. MODELS EACH HAVE THEIR OWN TAKE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
FRONT JUXTAPOSITION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER FRONT WAGGLES NORTH OR SOUTH NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESS WHICH MODELS
MAY NOT BE HANDLING ALL THAT WELL. SO..BEST FORECAST APPROACH WAS
TO KEEP CHC POPS TRENDING HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
HIGHER CHANCES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPS...USED RAW CONSENSUS MOS VALUES WITH A FEW TWEAKS...
WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTED VALUES. MAIN
TWEAKS WERE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS
VALUES...DUE TO THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS RAGGED
SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD HELP KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM
DIPPING MUCH. THIS TREND WAS ALSO FEATURED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO PUSH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF CONTS TO BE
THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS IN PUSHING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE
EAST...AND BASED ON THE STAGNANT NATURE OF THE WX PATTERN...THE
MODEL OF CHOICE IS THE ECMWF IN HOW IT HANDLES OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. USED HPC VALUES WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPULATE
GRIDDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR OR WORSE IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS SW HALF OF THE
AREA...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  POST-RAIN FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR
OR WORSE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA.  NE HALF OF AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH NOT WITHOUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THERE.

ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE...WED WILL BE VFR UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP...WHICH COULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY.  WHILE LESS ORGANIZED
WED...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FLARE UP WILL EASILY BECOME QUITE
HEAVY AS WELL AS SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY S...BUT GUSTY AND
VARIABLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM
THE W.

HTS TAF AMD NOT SKED DO TO NEAR-COMPLETE ASOS OUTAGE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  OVERNIGHT POST-RAIN FOG COULD BE MORE
INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 05/11/11
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
155 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FALLSBURG               38.17N  82.67W
05/10/2011                   LAWRENCE           KY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100599

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
159 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISA                  38.11N  82.60W
05/10/2011                   LAWRENCE           KY   911 CALL CENTER

            40 TO 50 HOMES DAMAGED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100600

TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

WVZ007-008-013>016-026-027-036-110715-
BOONE WV-CLAY WV-FAYETTE WV-JACKSON WV-KANAWHA WV-LINCOLN WV-MASON
WV-PUTNAM WV-ROANE WV-
159 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KANAWHA...NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
NORTHERN BOONE...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...PUTNAM...ROANE...SOUTHERN
JACKSON...SOUTHERN MASON AND WESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 157 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLAY TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF RIPLEY TO 7 MILES WEST OF
WINFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR PROCIOUS AROUND 210 AM...INDORE AROUND 220
AM...BENTREE AROUND 230 AM...FOSTER AROUND 240 AM...ESKDALE AROUND
250 AM AND BURNWELL AROUND 300 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 34 AND 57 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND
140 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 33...THE WEST
VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 66 AND 95.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3868 8217 3879 8199 3890 8155 3863 8113
      3831 8113 3826 8123 3823 8117 3823 8113
      3799 8114 3809 8181

13