Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
IT...WEAKENING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO ADJUST COVERAGE PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGES. REMOVE POPS ACROSS A DIAGONAL SECTIONS OF OUR
CWA...KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
ATTRIBUTES ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WV. LIKELY
POPS WITH SCATTERED STORMS WERE LEFT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA.

WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY...AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES
PASSING THROUGH...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE...STORMS...SOME HAILER...WILL BACK BUILD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WV THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. BY
12Z...ALL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WEAK WAVES
RIPPLE THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT. MODELS EACH HAVE THEIR OWN TAKE ON HOW THEY HANDLE
FRONT JUXTAPOSITION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER FRONT WAGGLES NORTH OR SOUTH NEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESS WHICH MODELS
MAY NOT BE HANDLING ALL THAT WELL. SO..BEST FORECAST APPROACH WAS
TO KEEP CHC POPS TRENDING HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
HIGHER CHANCES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPS...USED RAW CONSENSUS MOS VALUES WITH A FEW TWEAKS...
WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCSTED VALUES. MAIN
TWEAKS WERE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS
VALUES...DUE TO THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS RAGGED
SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD HELP KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM
DIPPING MUCH. THIS TREND WAS ALSO FEATURED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO PUSH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF CONTS TO BE
THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS IN PUSHING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE
EAST...AND BASED ON THE STAGNANT NATURE OF THE WX PATTERN...THE
MODEL OF CHOICE IS THE ECMWF IN HOW IT HANDLES OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. USED HPC VALUES WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPULATE
GRIDDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR OR WORSE IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS SW HALF OF THE
AREA...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  POST-RAIN FOG...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR
OR WORSE OVERNIGHT THIS AREA.  NE HALF OF AREA WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH NOT WITHOUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN THERE.

ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE...WED WILL BE VFR UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP...WHICH COULD OCCUR BY MIDDAY.  WHILE LESS ORGANIZED
WED...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FLARE UP WILL EASILY BECOME QUITE
HEAVY AS WELL AS SLOW MOVING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY S...BUT GUSTY AND
VARIABLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM
THE W.

HTS TAF AMD NOT SKED DO TO NEAR-COMPLETE ASOS OUTAGE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  OVERNIGHT POST-RAIN FOG COULD BE MORE
INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 05/11/11
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...TRM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

WVZ031-032-038>040-046-047-110315-
BARBOUR WV-HARRISON WV-POCAHONTAS WV-RANDOLPH WV-TAYLOR WV-UPSHUR WV-
WEBSTER WV-
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BARBOUR...EASTERN HARRISON...
NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER...NORTHERN POCAHONTAS...RANDOLPH...TAYLOR AND
UPSHUR COUNTIES...

AT 1044 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAFTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR PHILIPPI AROUND 1100 PM...NESTORVILLE AROUND
1105 PM...AUDRA STATE PARK AROUND 1110 PM AND BELINGTON AROUND 1115
PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
114 AND 129.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3835 7973 3838 8027 3944 8031 3944 8027
      3940 8020 3941 8010 3939 8008 3946 7993
      3943 7989 3930 7989 3924 7981 3913 7983
      3908 7977 3904 7977 3902 7971 3868 7960

TAX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

KYZ101-OHZ086-087-110430-
GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-LAWRENCE OH-
1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GALLIA...LAWRENCE AND
NORTHERN GREENUP COUNTIES...

AT 1130 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WEST PORTSMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LETITIA AROUND 1140 PM...LOAD AROUND 1150
PM...GRAYS BRANCH AROUND MIDNIGHT...HANGING ROCK AROUND 1210 AM...
PEDRO AROUND 1220 AM AND AID AROUND 1230 AM.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3859 8308 3873 8303 3877 8288 3874 8286
      3860 8285 3858 8281 3860 8275 3868 8277
      3869 8271 3875 8269 3876 8233 3849 8239
      3849 8266 3851 8266 3849 8268 3850 8317

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

KYZ105-WVZ005-024-110445-
LAWRENCE KY-MINGO WV-WAYNE WV-
1159 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN
WAYNE AND WESTERN MINGO COUNTIES...

AT 1158 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF INEZ...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR KERMIT AROUND 1210 AM...LENORE AROUND 1220
AM...MYRTLE AROUND 1230 AM...DELBARTON AROUND 1240 AM AND VARNEY
AROUND 1250 AM.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3813 8245 3797 8228 3795 8229 3795 8226
      3780 8210 3775 8212 3774 8209 3770 8208
      3770 8205 3762 8218 3774 8234 3778 8234
      3781 8240 3790 8244 3790 8248 3795 8252
      3795 8257 3799 8263

13

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