Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
324 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  A WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN ITS WAKE PREVAILS INTO MONDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG MCV RIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT...DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS IS THE CAUSE OF THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WILL EXPIRE
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE... THE WARM
FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL LEAVE A MOIST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...WET GROUND...AND
ENOUGH DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS...TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REFORMING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY MUCH ON THE HIGH SIDE
GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST
BREEZE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL MIX OUT FOR PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING ALOFT
WITHIN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM...AS WE ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR COLD FROPA MONDAY. ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF
THE ACTUAL PASSAGE...AND WHETHER IT WILL TRIGGER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR NOT. CURRENTLY SPC HAS NORTHERN WV DRAWN INTO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE ON DAY 3. IF THE PASSAGE OCCURS DURING MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS TO EXPAND
SOUTH OVER CWA.

ONE FACTOR WORKING AGAINST THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
IS THE HIGH PWS IN THE GUIDANCE. 12Z NAM HAS A RIBBON OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCH PWS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS RAISES THE
CONCERN OF POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES MONDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE FAIRLY WET...AND CURRENT FFG IS RUNNING AROUND 1 TO 1.5
INCHES IN THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WATER SITUATION
CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE.

DRY WEATHER WILL START THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AS THIS COULD MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN AND TWEAK AS THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
15Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND...IN
SOME AREAS...A RESULT OF RAIN FRI AND LAST NT...IS CURRENTLY MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE IN THE NORTH.

A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...SOUTH HALF OF WV AND
SW VA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SOUTH...OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...TO VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...LAST TO IMPROVE IN
THE NORTH.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF IFR LOW CLOUD AND FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG AND STRATUS
AND ITS EVAPORATION IS IN QUESTION.  ALSO IN QUESTION IS TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    L    H    L    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    H    L    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    L    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES AFTER THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT SAT NT.  IFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/JMV/TAX
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
505 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-
033>037-100915-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
505 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ009>011-017>020-028>032-038>040-046-
047-100915-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
505 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
334 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             CHIEF LOGAN STATE PARK  37.89N  82.01W
04/09/2011  E0.88 INCH       LOGAN              WV   PARK SERVICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100422

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
337 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             5 SW LOGAN              37.80N  82.05W
04/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100423

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
339 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             GRUNDY                  37.28N  82.10W
04/09/2011  E2.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100424

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
345 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             4 NW GRUNDY             37.32N  82.15W
04/09/2011  E2.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           VA   PUBLIC

            TOWN OF MAXIE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100425

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
348 PM EDT SAT APR 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             COAL MOUNTAIN           37.67N  81.73W
04/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       WYOMING            WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100426

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

WVZ005-006-008-013>016-024>027-033>037-092115-
BOONE WV-CABELL WV-CLAY WV-FAYETTE WV-JACKSON WV-KANAWHA WV-
LINCOLN WV-LOGAN WV-MCDOWELL WV-MINGO WV-NICHOLAS WV-PUTNAM WV-
RALEIGH WV-ROANE WV-WAYNE WV-WYOMING WV-
349 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOONE...FAYETTE...KANAWHA...
LINCOLN...LOGAN...MINGO...NORTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
RALEIGH...PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN CABELL...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS...
SOUTHWESTERN ROANE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 341 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF
MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SHARON AROUND 355 PM...HANDLEY AROUND 400
PM...GAULEY BRIDGE AROUND 405 PM...SWISS AROUND 410 PM...INDORE
AROUND 415 PM AND DRENNAN AROUND 420 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 29 AND 57 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND
129 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 22...THE WEST
VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 48 AND 95.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3749 8197 3752 8194 3754 8197 3753 8201
      3809 8259 3878 8159 3812 8083 3737 8185

14