Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT MAY CREEP SOUTH TONIGHT INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. FRONT OSCILLATES NORTH ON SATURDAY. MOST UNSTABLE IN
THE SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 03Z TO 05Z IN OUR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA /EXTREME SOUTH/ SINCE AIR IN KENTUCKY WAS NOT
WORKED OVER.

NEW CELLS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT OUT TOWARD SDF...BUT THINKING THEY
WOULD NOT ADVECT DUE EAST.  BUT SINCE FRONT STILL IN VICINITY WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN OVERNIGHT...AS FAR NORTH AS LAWRENCE COUNTY
OHIO EAST TO NICHOLAS COUNTY.

HAVE FRONT TRYING TO CREEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. WILL TRY TO INTRODUCE
SOME LOWER STRATUS AND THICK FOG OVERNIGHT WHERE IT RAINED.
FURTHER NORTH IN THE MORE STABLE AIR...THINKING MORE CLOUDS AND LESS
IN WAY OF THICK FOG...PROBABLY STILL SOME FOG THOUGH. THIS INCLUDES
PKB-CKB CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST
PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE  FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED
RIDGING. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR...WITH DECENT WAA
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONE OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  COLD FRONT TO CROSS ON MONDAY...AND MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTION IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS KY AND WV.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH GFS SOLUTION
THE PREFERENCE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.  SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST
TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS HIGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BEING TO APPROACH THE AREA.

AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL END TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED INTO THURSDAY.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT BISECTS THE AREA...GIVING US A VARIETY OF WEATHER.

IN MORE STABLE AIR...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 3 THSD FT NORTH OF THE
FRONT MAY DEVELOP FROM UNI-PKB-CKB-EKN ON NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY
1 TO 3 MILES IN FOG AFTER 05Z.

IN CENTRAL CORRIDOR...INCLUDING HTS-CRW AREA...FOG FORMING
EARLY...AFTER 02Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS CEILING AOB 1 THSD FT
AND VSBY AOB 1 MILES AFTER 03Z THROUGH 12Z.

EXTREME SOUTH...SHORT LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
AROUND 05Z WITH LOCAL CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY BRIEFLY
AOB 3 MILES.  VARIABLE CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO
FORM AND FILL VALLEYS.

AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN.  CONVECTION MAY
FORM AFTER 18Z IN THE SOUTH...INCLUDING THE AREA BORDER AREA OF
KENTUCKY...WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT AND ITS EVAPORATION AFTER DAWN IS IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/09/11
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES IN THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY EVENING.  IFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/TAX
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>037-
091915-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
308 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-038>040-046-
047-091915-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
308 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
934 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             2 NE CLEAR FORK         37.65N  81.66W
04/08/2011  E0.75 INCH       WYOMING            WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100417

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
939 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     HAIL             3 WNW OCEANA            37.71N  81.68W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       WYOMING            WV   PUBLIC

            BETWEEN LYNCO AND OCEANA

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100418

JFD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1007 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

VAZ004-WVZ024-025-033-034-090315-
BUCHANAN VA-LOGAN WV-MCDOWELL WV-MINGO WV-WYOMING WV-
1007 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MCDOWELL...NORTHERN BUCHANAN...
SOUTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHERN MINGO AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 1002 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LOGAN TO WILLIAMSON TO 12 MILES NORTH OF PIKEVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR COAL MOUNTAIN AROUND 1015 PM...CLEAR FORK
AROUND 1030 PM...PINEVILLE AROUND 1045 PM...HERNDON AROUND 1100 PM
AND WAR AROUND 1115 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3739 8219 3754 8198 3755 8213 3758 8213
      3767 8229 3770 8231 3771 8230 3779 8187
      3757 8131 3755 8130 3751 8122 3746 8130
      3742 8128 3741 8131 3727 8142 3720 8156
      3719 8167 3723 8173 3717 8182

30