Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN THE STORY MAKER IN THE NEAR TERM AS NOW
FOCUS TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY STORMS BEGINNING TO
FORM IN A LINE PARALLEL TO I64 CORRIDOR FROM CRW TO HTS. EXPECTING
THIS LINE TO DEVELOP BACK INTO KY AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN OHIO SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. STORM ENVIRONMENT IN KY HAS BEEN PRIMED MOST OF
THE MORNING BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEING ABLE TO HEAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND ELIMINATE THE CAP THAT EXISTED EARLY.

AS STORMS DEVELOP...AND PLOD EASTWARD...EXPECTING THEM TO PRIMARILY
EFFECT SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS AND
DAMAGING HAIL. EVEN THOUGH PWS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...1.2 TO
1.4 INCHES...AND FFG VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WILL NEED TO REMAIN
VIGILANT WHEN IT COMES TO TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND WATER
ISSUES.

AFTER STORMS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BOUNDARY STICKS AROUND AND WILL
SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THAN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WILL
REMAIN WARM FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE IN THAT REGARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST
PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE  FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED
RIDGING. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR...WITH DECENT WAA
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONE OVER THE MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  COLD FRONT TO CROSS ON MONDAY...AND MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTION IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS KY AND WV.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH GFS SOLUTION
THE PREFERENCE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.  SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST
TUESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS HIGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BEING TO APPROACH THE AREA.

AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL END TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED INTO THURSDAY.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WESTERN SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OH AND E KY AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN WV THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING FREQUENT MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY EFFECT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LINGERING MVFR IN STRATOCU AND MIST. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH E KY AND SRN WV
TOWARD DAWN SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
ITS DURATION COULD VARY FROM TAF FORECAST.  FORMATION OF POST-RAIN
NOCTURNAL FOG TONIGHT MORE SO THAN FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES IN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TAX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

WVZ014-015-081900-
KANAWHA WV-PUTNAM WV-
216 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PUTNAM AND NORTHERN
KANAWHA COUNTIES...

AT 213 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
NITRO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NITRO AROUND 230 PM...SOUTH CHARLESTON AROUND
240 PM AND PINCH AROUND 250 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 32 AND 57 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND
113 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 17...THE WEST
VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 95.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3851 8205 3852 8138 3823 8143 3837 8205

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

WVZ015-027-036-037-081945-
CLAY WV-FAYETTE WV-KANAWHA WV-NICHOLAS WV-
300 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL KANAWHA...NORTHERN
FAYETTE...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS COUNTIES...

AT 259 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF
CHARLESTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR POND GAP AROUND 310 PM...SWISS AROUND 320
PM...DRENNAN AROUND 330 PM AND MOUNT NEBO AROUND 340 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...THE WEST VIRGINIA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 88 AND 89.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3799 8090 3823 8157 3838 8150 3832 8077
      3809 8086 3809 8088 3807 8087

30