Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Charleston, WV

933 
WWUS51 KRLX 100401
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

WVC013-021-085-105-107-100410-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-110610T0400Z/
GILMER WV-CALHOUN WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-RITCHIE WV-
1201 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RITCHIE...SOUTHEASTERN WOOD...
NORTHERN WIRT...NORTHERN CALHOUN AND NORTHERN GILMER COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER OTHER WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZE 
HAIL...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3920 8087 3918 8085 3911 8081 3911 8078
      3903 8072 3900 8072 3892 8103 3904 8155
      3928 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 285DEG 13KT 3923 8168

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
957 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT KEEPS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE CESSATION OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...A NEW LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMED BEHIND THE EARLIER ACTION...AHEAD OF...AND
PARALLEL TO...A FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA.  WHILE IT INITIALLY
LOOKED LIKE A CKB-HTS AND BEYOND BUT SOUTHERN END DID NOT HOLD
TOGETHER MUCH BUT NORTHERN END IS PRODUCING BY FAR OUR WORST SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING OF THE DAY.  EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A QUIET THOUGH MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME HAZE...ALONG
WITH VALLEY MIST.  IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED...MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

DO NOT THINK BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL HAVE MUCH
FARTHER SWD PUSH W OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE S OF THE FRONT FRI.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE AGAIN...THIS
TIME WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE FARTHER N...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
CONVECTION MAY GET GOING RELATIVELY EARLY FRI DEPENDING UPON TIMING
OF WEAK S/W TROFS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ABOUT
COINCIDENT WITH THE W-E BOUNDARY JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA.  SPC
FOCUSES SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI TO THE NW...DEEPER INTO THE
WESTERLIES...WHERE THE S/W ENERGY AND SHEAR ARE STRONGER.  THIS AREA
AFFECTS ONLY OUR INTERIOR SE OHIO COUNTIES.

ONLY CAVEAT IS IF COMPLEX FORMS UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND THEN SENDS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA AGAIN FRI...WHICH WOULD AGAIN
RE-FOCUS CONVECTION NEAR IT.

HAVE LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM THE ONSET TONIGHT S WHERE THE RAIN HAS
COOLED THE AIR CONSIDERABLY.  ACTUALLY LOWS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES
TO HIGHS FRI...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE MET...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN
HIGHS TODAY...ON ACCOUNT OF AM LITTLE MORE CLOUD AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
H85 TEMPERATURES.  RAISED DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WITH MOST OF
THE AREA STILL S OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE COLD STALLS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
OUR AREA...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...MORE ON A SCATTERED BASIS WITH LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING.

BY SATURDAY...THE REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH
AND EAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE DAY TIME HEATING. BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT.

MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXITING OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE
HELD ONTO POPS FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF
COLD ADVECTION UP SLOPE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION IS DONE FOR THE EVENING.

HAVE ALL BUT BKW DEVELOPING MVFR FOG AFTER 03Z.  VLIFR DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT EKN...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12 OR 13Z AS USUAL.  VALLEYS WHERE IT RAINED...ACROSS SOUTHERN
WV...SW VA AND NE KY...COULD SEE IFR FOG AFTER 04Z.

FRI WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HAZY DAY.  CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN ANYTIME AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND
E-CNTRL OHIO.

FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT...MAINLY W
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY VARY.  ALSO AREAS THAT SEE RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP
MORE FOG THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 06/10/11
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JEE/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>028-033>039-046-047-
110015-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-029>032-040-110015-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE-
MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
FRIDAY...NORTHWEST OF A MCARTHUR TO ATHENS TO MARIETTA LINE. THAT
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPANDS ON SATURDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1004 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRIDGEPORT              39.29N  80.26W
06/09/2011                   HARRISON           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            STRUCTURE FLOODED... W MAIN ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100702

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1007 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAFTON                 39.34N  80.02W
06/09/2011                   TAYLOR             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN... WILSON RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100703

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1032 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND GST     JANE LEW                39.11N  80.41W
06/09/2011  M67 MPH          LEWIS              WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100704

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1044 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BRIDGEPORT              39.29N  80.26W
06/09/2011  M2.28 INCH       HARRISON           WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STORM TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100705

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1049 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PHILIPPI                39.15N  80.04W
06/09/2011                   BARBOUR            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES AND POLES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT
            TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100706

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
1059 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JANE LEW                39.11N  80.41W
06/09/2011                   LEWIS              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100707

ARB