Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT KEEPS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ALL THE WAY UP NEAR CHICAGO
LAST NIGHT...SAILED SE ACROSS FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY...BEFORE
GETTING HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  THIS IS WHERE
CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP THIS PAST AFTERNOON WAS MOST
PERSISTENT...AND WAS ONGOING ALTHOUGH FADING AS 00Z APPROACHED.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SUN SETS.

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM IF NOT DROPPED EVEN SOONER.  THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM GOES AT 8 PM.

ONCE THE CONVECTION IS GONE...EXPECT A QUIET THOUGH MUGGY NIGHT
WITH SOME HAZE...ALONG WITH VALLEY MIST.  IN AREAS WHERE IT
RAINED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...DENSE VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

DO NOT THINK BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL HAVE MUCH
FARTHER SWD PUSH W OF THE APPALACHIANS...SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE S OF THE FRONT FRI.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE AGAIN...THIS
TIME WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE FARTHER N...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.
CONVECTION MAY GET GOING RELATIVELY EARLY FRI DEPENDING UPON TIMING
OF WEAK S/W TROFS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ABOUT
COINCIDENT WITH THE W-E BOUNDARY JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA.  SPC
FOCUSES SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI TO THE NW...DEEPER INTO THE
WESTERLIES...WHERE THE S/W ENERGY AND SHEAR ARE STRONGER.  THIS AREA
AFFECTS ONLY OUR INTERIOR SE OHIO COUNTIES.

ONLY CAVEAT IS IF COMPLEX FORMS UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND THEN SENDS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA AGAIN FRI...WHICH WOULD AGAIN
RE-FOCUS CONVECTION NEAR IT.

HAVE LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM THE ONSET TONIGHT S WHERE THE RAIN HAS
COOLED THE AIR CONSIDERABLY.  ACTUALLY LOWS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES
TO HIGHS FRI...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE MET...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN
HIGHS TODAY...ON ACCOUNT OF AM LITTLE MORE CLOUD AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
H85 TEMPERATURES.  RAISED DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WITH MOST OF
THE AREA STILL S OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THE COLD STALLS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
OUR AREA...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...MORE ON A SCATTERED BASIS WITH LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING.

BY SATURDAY...THE REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH
AND EAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE DAY TIME HEATING. BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT.

MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON BEING QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXITING OUR AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE
HELD ONTO POPS FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF
COLD ADVECTION UP SLOPE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION IS DONE FOR THE EVENING.

HAVE ALL BUT BKW DEVELOPING MVFR FOG AFTER 03Z.  VLIFR DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT EKN...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
12 OR 13Z AS USUAL.  VALLEYS WHERE IT RAINED...ACROSS SOUTHERN
WV...SW VA AND NE KY...COULD SEE IFR FOG AFTER 04Z.

FRI WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HAZY DAY.  CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN ANYTIME AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND
E-CNTRL OHIO.

FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT...MAINLY W
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY VARY.  ALSO AREAS THAT SEE RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP
MORE FOG THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 06/10/11
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JEE/JMV/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>028-033>039-046-047-
110015-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-029>032-040-110015-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE-
MASON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-BARBOUR-
815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
FRIDAY...NORTHWEST OF A MCARTHUR TO ATHENS TO MARIETTA LINE. THAT
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPANDS ON SATURDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
819 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

OHZ086-WVZ006-007-100045-
CABELL WV-GALLIA OH-MASON WV-
819 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CABELL...SOUTH
CENTRAL GALLIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

AT 816 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PROCTORVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A QUICK DOWNPOUR OF AROUND A HALF INCH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN ITS PATH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ASHTON AROUND 840 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3869 8205 3861 8205 3861 8206 3852 8206
      3853 8230 3857 8230 3858 8229 3859 8235
      3868 8236

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
842 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

OHZ086-WVZ007-014-100130-
GALLIA OH-MASON WV-PUTNAM WV-
842 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN
GALLIA AND SOUTHERN MASON COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH OF
GALLIPOLIS...NEAR ASHTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BUFFALO AROUND 910 PM...GRIMMS LANDING AROUND
915 PM...ELEANOR AROUND 920 PM...WINFIELD AROUND 925 PM AND BANCROFT
AROUND 930 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3870 8225 3869 8178 3868 8177 3868 8175
      3865 8172 3860 8173 3860 8174 3859 8175
      3847 8174 3851 8206 3861 8225

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
848 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

WVZ019-020-030>032-040-100130-
BARBOUR WV-DODDRIDGE WV-HARRISON WV-LEWIS WV-RITCHIE WV-TAYLOR WV-
848 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RITCHIE...NORTHERN
BARBOUR...NORTHERN LEWIS...SOUTHERN DODDRIDGE...SOUTHERN HARRISON AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF FAIRMONT TO 5 MILES EAST OF CLARKSBURG TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WESTON TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARRISVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING..AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS OF UP TO A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS
MAY CAUSE PONDING ON ROADS...AND QUICK RISES IN STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ROSEMONT...AND WEST MILFORD AROUND 855
PM...BEREA...AND FLEMINGTON AROUND 900 PM...GROVE AROUND 905 PM...
GRAFTON AROUND 910 PM...GALLOWAY...AND TYGART LAKE STATE PARK AROUND
915 PM...LOST CREEK AND THORNTON AROUND 925 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 127.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3920 7986 3910 8013 3909 8021 3911 8024
      3909 8031 3909 8073 3917 8109 3919 8071
      3928 8032 3940 8018 3941 8010 3939 8008
      3944 7999 3942 7989 3930 7989 3924 7982

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
900 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     HAIL             BRIDGEPORT              39.29N 80.23W
06/09/2011  U1.00 INCH       HARRISON           WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-100145-
CABELL WV-LAWRENCE OH-LINCOLN WV-WAYNE WV-
904 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT
CABELL...NORTHERN WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PROCTORVILLE
AND HUNTINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A QUICK HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO OCCUR IN THE PATH OF THE STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PEA RIDGE AROUND 910 PM...BARBOURSVILLE
AROUND 920 PM...ONA AROUND 935 PM AND SALT ROCK AROUND 945 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
3 AND 31 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

THE HIGHEST THREAT AREAS FOR BRIEF URBAN FLOODING ARE THE RAILROAD
VIADUCTS AT 1ST...8TH...10TH...16TH AND 20TH STREETS. IN
ADDITION...THE RAILROAD VIADUCT AT 14TH STREET WEST MAY BRIEFLY
FLOOD. FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG 5TH AVENUE BETWEEN 24TH AND
25TH STREETS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3850 8253 3846 8206 3838 8205 3820 8212
      3833 8258

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON, WV
918 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSBURG              39.28N  80.33W
06/09/2011                   HARRISON           WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS A ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1100693

ARB