Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Charleston, WV

699 
WWUS51 KRLX 272306
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
706 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

WVC007-015-041-067-083-097-101-272314-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-110427T2345Z/
NICHOLAS WV-LEWIS WV-RANDOLPH WV-CLAY WV-BRAXTON WV-WEBSTER WV-
UPSHUR WV-
706 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR UPSHUR...WEBSTER...BRAXTON...
EAST CENTRAL CLAY...WEST CENTRAL RANDOLPH...LEWIS AND CENTRAL 
NICHOLAS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3838 8045 3820 8082 3833 8103 3889 8068
      3890 8061 3894 8065 3914 8052 3890 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 218DEG 50KT 3854 8066

$$

14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN THURSDAY.
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. WELCOME HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY TO START THE WEEKEND DRY. DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LIKE WHAT WE SAID LATE THIS MORNING...SO FAR SO GOOD.
HOWEVER...WANT TO ADD...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.

THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS DID
HELP FORM MORE CONVECTION IN NC AND VA.  FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX RACING NORTHEAST INTO THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS. SW VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THAT ONE COMPLEX INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INFLOW TO THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAINS FURTHER TO
OUR SOUTH.

LATER TONIGHT...STRONG DYNAMIC/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT STILL SWINGS THROUGH
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE RACES TOWARD
LAKE ERIE BY 12Z THU.  I EVEN PICTURE ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE
SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. HAVE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KNOTS WITH THAT. HAVE THE FRONT REACHING OHIO RIVER COUNTIES
AROUND 06Z AND PASSING THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 10Z.

TRIED TO HAVE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS LINGER A BIT
LONGER OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...
IN THE FAST FLOW...WAS QUICK TO DROP THE POPS OVER OUR SW LOWLANDS.

HAVE TEMPERATURES RECOVERING JUST A FEW DEGREES IN THE COOLER AND
FRESHER AIR DURING THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME ON THURSDAY...WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ADDED A FEW WET MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
IN OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SINCE THE THREAT ABOUT THE SAME AS FURTHER
W.  AS INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...FIGURING RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1.5 OR
HIGHER WOULD BE A PROBLEM.  WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE MUSKINGUM...HOCKING...LITTLE SANDY IN THE
WAKE OF THAT RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE TO ATTACH TO NAM12 SUGGESTION OF
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE PERIOD RIGHT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THU NT.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF AXIS
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT SHIFTS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY TO THE E COAST THROUGH FRI.  IT ACTUALLY BECOMES NEARLY
UNSTABLE IN A NARROW AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IN
RESPONSE TO THE COOLING ALOFT.

ONCE THAT LAST FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...THE WEATHER BREAKS FOR A
WELCOME REPRIEVE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING LATE FRI AND FRI
NT.  ADDED SOME CLOUD FOR THE MOUNTAINS FRI FOR CU IN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

AFTER A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND IN LIGHT S FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SLOWLY EXITING HIGH...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SAT NT IN THE
FORM OF WARM ADVECTION.  SLOWED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...THE LATTER MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN.

THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER...AND
LIKED THE LOWER MAV AS OPPOSED TO THE MET FOR HIGHS FRI...WHICH WAS
ALSO MADE FOR GOOD CONTINUITY.  LOWER 80S OFF THE MEX SEEMED HIGH
SAT GIVEN JUST 9 OR 10C AT H85.  MADE MINOR CHANGES ONLY TO LOWS THU
NT AND FRI NT...BUT LOWERED SAT NT A BIT WITH SLOWER ONSET OF NEXT
SYSTEM.  CONSENSUS MOS WITH EXTRA WEIGHT FOR MAV SEEMED TO DO THE
TRICK IN MOST CASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME TWEAKS. REGION WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR.  A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN BY WEDNESDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION HANGING ON BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONLY MAJOR CHANGES ARE FOR POPS LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN...FELT POPS WOULD BE LOWER AND FORECAST
WAS CHANGED TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CEILINGS AND VSBY DETERIORATING THIS EVENING...AS SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.  HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIGURED 03Z TO 08Z ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND VSBY AOB 3
MILES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...CEILINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 1 THSD FT
OVER MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z...AND REMAINING AROUND 2 THSD
FT IN THE LOWLANDS.  VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS 12Z TO
15Z IN THE COOLER LOW LEVELS.

CEILINGS LIFTING TO 3 TO 4 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY UNRESTRICTED OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 00Z TO 06Z CONTINUE TO DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  SO TIMING THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>007.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-
     013>020-024>032-037>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

VAZ003-004-WVZ033>036-282200-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 239 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007-282200-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-282200-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-WAYNE-CABELL-
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 239 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-037>040-046-047-282200-
JACKSON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ013>015-024>026-282200-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
549 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 239 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
632 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

WVZ028>032-038>040-272315-
BARBOUR WV-BRAXTON WV-GILMER WV-HARRISON WV-LEWIS WV-TAYLOR WV-
UPSHUR WV-WEBSTER WV-
632 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BARBOUR...BRAXTON...EAST CENTRAL
GILMER...LEWIS...NORTHERN UPSHUR...NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 622 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF
SUTTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HEATERS AROUND 640 PM...FALLS MILLS...AND
BURNSVILLE AROUND 645 PM...KANAWHA HEAD...CLEVELAND...IRELAND...AND
SAND RUN AROUND 650 PM...ROCK CAVE...AND WALKERSVILLE AROUND 655 PM
AND FRENCH CREEK AROUND 700 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
47 AND 125.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3847 8065 3847 8067 3850 8068 3853 8065
      3853 8073 3852 8074 3856 8078 3854 8081
      3864 8099 3934 8024 3940 7994 3925 7986

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

WVZ028>032-038>040-272315-
BARBOUR WV-BRAXTON WV-GILMER WV-HARRISON WV-LEWIS WV-TAYLOR WV-
UPSHUR WV-WEBSTER WV-
635 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BARBOUR...BRAXTON...
EAST CENTRAL GILMER...LEWIS...NORTHERN UPSHUR...NORTHWESTERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 622 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES...DRIFTING NORTH. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR HEATERS...FALLS MILLS...BURNSVILLE...
KANAWHA HEAD...CLEVELAND...IRELAND...SAND RUN...ROCK CAVE...
WALKERSVILLE...AND FRENCH CREEK THROUGH AT LEAST 715 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
47 AND 125.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3847 8065 3847 8067 3850 8068 3853 8065
      3853 8073 3852 8074 3856 8078 3854 8081
      3864 8099 3934 8024 3940 7994 3925 7986

14