Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2011
Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at Jul 25, 2011, 6:48 PM EDT for Sampson County, North Carolina. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 25, 2011, 6:48 PM EDT (22:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 25, 2011, 7:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 42 min
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
County Sampson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2766 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 569 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 25, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 325 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETREAT WEST THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY... TONIGHT... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A SFC LOW NEAR FREDERICKSBURG VA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS REGION OF VA AND NC. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FOOTHILLS. OTHER SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ANEMIC AND SHEAR IS LACKING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.25. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL TODAY AND FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH PUSH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE DOWN A NOTCH FROM SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS AROUND WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. INCLUDED HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF CWA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MARGINAL FORCING. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MEAN MOISTURE. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE THAN EXPECTED...SOME AREA OF FOG ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70-75 RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY REACHING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS. NWP GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ON TUESDAY WHICH NECESSITATES AT LEAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITH SLIGHT COOL ADVECTION AND COOLER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SVR THREAT FOR TUES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... THE PROXIMITY INVOF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC ON TUE...SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWFA TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. LOWS 68 TO 74. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD DRIFT IN A CYCLONIC LOOP WESTWARD AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH/MOIST AXIS WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL STORMS NEAR THE SC BORDER WED AFTERNOON. THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO HERALD THE BEGINNINGS OF HEATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF HEAT THROUGH SAT -- THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REGARDING THE FORECAST POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE INVOF THE CAROLINAS -- FOLLOWED BY RIDGE RETROGRESSION AND RESULTANT LESS HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF STORMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUN-MON. THIS PROJECTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE OF RECENT DAYS. THU-SAT NIGHT: VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THU...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FRI-SAT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK QUITE LOW GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE OVERHEAD SUBSIDENT RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE SEEMS IN PART A FUNCTION OF AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOIST AXIS WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS BY FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT. SUN-MON: HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...AMIDST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE INVOF A DIFFUSING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SUN-MON. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... SCT TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING EAST WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST 4 OR SO HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 00Z WHICH WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL UPDATES. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE ADDITION OF PRECIPITATION TODAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION OF FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS - THIS WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED BY LATER SHIFTS TO LOOK AT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THREAT THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR KFAY AND POSSIBLY KRDU/KRWI. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MANY THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AND THU WITH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION INCREASING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY DURING SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG. -BLAES && .CLIMATE... GSO RDU DATE HIGH/YEAR HIGH MIN/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH MIN/YEAR THU 28: 100/1952 74/1987 104/1952 75/1997 FRI 29: 101/1952 75/2010 104/1952 76/2002 SAT 30: 97/1954 74/1931 101/1953 75/2008 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-075>078- 084>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...MWS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 25, 4:04 PM EDT, 2 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 NCZ042-075>078-084>086-088-089-261000- JOHNSTON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND- SAMPSON- 404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HEAT ADVISORY. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073-074-083-261000- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON- 404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 25, 6:34 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jul 25, 6:42 PM EDT, 6 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jul 25, 6:43 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jul 25, 6:44 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jul 25, 6:45 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jul 25, 6:48 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 8:10 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Anson, Stanly | 3 hr |
| Jul 24, 8:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Montgomery, Moore | 60 min |
| Jul 25, 4:06 AM EDT | Heat Advisory | RAH | Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Moore and 4 more | 15 hr |
| Jul 25, 2:41 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Montgomery, Stanly | 64 min |
| Jul 25, 2:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Durham | 59 min |
| Jul 25, 2:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Durham, Orange | 25 min |
| Jul 25, 2:59 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Sampson, Wayne | 61 min |
| Jul 25, 3:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph | 31 min |
| Jul 25, 3:18 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Wake | 57 min |
| Jul 25, 3:19 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Moore | 41 min |
| Jul 25, 3:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Wake | 15 min |
| Jul 25, 3:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Randolph | 43 min |
| Jul 25, 4:00 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Chatham, Lee | 60 min |
| Jul 25, 4:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Franklin | 59 min |
| Jul 25, 4:09 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Randolph | 3 hr |
| Jul 25, 4:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Harnett, Lee | 59 min |
| Jul 25, 4:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Harnett, Wake | 44 min |
| Jul 25, 4:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Franklin | 40 min |
| Jul 25, 4:39 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Alamance, Chatham | 2 hr |
| Jul 25, 4:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Chatham, Orange | 30 min |
| Jul 25, 4:41 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Scotland | 64 min |
| Jul 25, 4:42 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Halifax | 63 min |
| Jul 25, 4:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Johnston | 63 min |
| Jul 25, 5:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Cumberland | 59 min |
| Jul 25, 5:08 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Stanly | 3 hr |
| Jul 25, 5:14 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Montgomery, Stanly | 61 min |
| Jul 25, 5:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Edgecombe, Nash | 54 min |
| Jul 25, 5:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Nash, Wilson | 46 min |
| Jul 25, 5:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Anson, Richmond | 55 min |
| Jul 25, 6:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Anson | 45 min |
| Jul 25, 6:02 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Halifax, Warren | 58 min |
| Jul 25, 6:07 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Anson, Richmond | 3 hr |
| Jul 25, 6:08 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Franklin | 67 min |
| Jul 25, 6:34 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Wilson | 56 min |
| Jul 25, 6:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Hoke, Richmond, Scotland | 60 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.