Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETREAT WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

TONIGHT...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A
SFC LOW NEAR FREDERICKSBURG VA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS
REGION OF VA AND NC. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
FOOTHILLS. OTHER SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ANEMIC AND SHEAR IS LACKING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.25. DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL TODAY AND FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
PUSH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
IN GENERAL THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE DOWN A NOTCH FROM
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS AROUND WET
MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
PREVIOUS DAYS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. INCLUDED
HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF CWA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS LATE THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MARGINAL FORCING.
EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MEAN
MOISTURE. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE THAN EXPECTED...SOME AREA OF FOG ARE
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 70-75 RANGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
REACHING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS. NWP
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ON TUESDAY WHICH NECESSITATES AT LEAST CHC
POPS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITH SLIGHT
COOL ADVECTION AND COOLER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SVR THREAT FOR TUES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

THE PROXIMITY INVOF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
TROUGH FORECAST TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NC ON
TUE...SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWFA TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. LOWS 68 TO 74.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD DRIFT IN A
CYCLONIC LOOP WESTWARD AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD
QUICKLY OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. THE
RELATIVE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH/MOIST AXIS WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DIURNAL STORMS NEAR THE SC BORDER WED AFTERNOON. THE EXPANSION OF
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO HERALD THE BEGINNINGS OF HEATING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF
HEAT THROUGH SAT -- THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
REGARDING THE FORECAST POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE INVOF THE CAROLINAS -- FOLLOWED BY RIDGE RETROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT LESS HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF STORMS
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUN-MON. THIS PROJECTED TRANSITIONAL
PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE OF RECENT DAYS.

THU-SAT NIGHT: VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THU...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
FRI-SAT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK QUITE LOW GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE OVERHEAD SUBSIDENT RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE
INCREASED MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE SEEMS
IN PART A FUNCTION OF AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOIST AXIS WITHIN
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS BY FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT.

SUN-MON: HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...AMIDST TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORM COVERAGE INVOF A DIFFUSING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

SCT TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING EAST WITH TIME DURING THE
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST 4 OR
SO HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PAST 00Z WHICH WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL UPDATES. PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STORMS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE ADDITION OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A
BRIEF MENTION OF FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS - THIS WILL NEED TO BE
EXAMINED BY LATER SHIFTS TO LOOK AT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

THREAT THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR KFAY AND
POSSIBLY KRDU/KRWI. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD INHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MANY THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AND THU WITH THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION INCREASING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY DURING
SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG. -BLAES

&&

.CLIMATE...
GSO                                    RDU
DATE     HIGH/YEAR    HIGH MIN/YEAR    HIGH/YEAR  HIGH MIN/YEAR

THU 28:  100/1952       74/1987        104/1952       75/1997
FRI 29:  101/1952       75/2010        104/1952       76/2002
SAT 30:   97/1954       74/1931        101/1953       75/2008

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ042-075>078-
084>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

NCZ042-075>078-084>086-088-089-261000-
JOHNSTON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST AND
MOST HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073-074-083-261000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST AND
MOST HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     LIGHTNING        3 W RALEIGH             35.80N  78.69W
07/25/2011                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHTNING STRUCK AND STARTED A SMALL FIRE IN THE
            BASEMENT OF A HOME ALONG RIDGE RD NEAR PHYLLIS DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101099

KC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

NCZ040-076-252100-
CHATHAM-LEE-
400 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LEE AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 5 MILES NORTH OF GOLDSTON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...PITTSBORO...MONCURE.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 7898 3545 7908 3551 7935 3552 7935
      3552 7938 3555 7953 3584 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 282DEG 15KT 3567 7930

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

NCZ026-027-041-252100-
FRANKLIN-NASH-WAKE-
401 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NASH...WAKE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PILOT...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PILOT...AND...BUNN...
SPRING HOPE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7798 3580 7803 3579 7825 3581 7825
      3581 7827 3579 7831 3579 7842 3598 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 271DEG 12KT 3589 7834

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
416 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

NCZ040>042-076-077-252115-
CHATHAM-HARNETT-JOHNSTON-LEE-WAKE-
416 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT...JOHNSTON...WAKE...
LEE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONCURE TO OLIVIA...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO TO 10
MILES SOUTH OF SANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BROADWAY...
PINEVIEW...SEMINOLE...NEW HILL...DUNCAN...HOLLY SPRINGS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 7916 3524 7917 3527 7922 3530 7919
      3532 7922 3576 7911 3562 7860 3525 7863
      3526 7872 3526 7879 3525 7887 3523 7889
      3521 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 288DEG 11KT 3565 7902 3534 7913

23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

NCZ011-252145-
HALIFAX-
442 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GLENVIEW...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ENFIELD...TILLERY...
SCOTLAND NECK.

THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED
THAT AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY HAD FALLEN IN A SMALL AREA
JUST WEST OF ENFIELD...NEAR HIGHWAYS 481 AND 48...BETWEEN 4 PM AND
430 PM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD. PERSONS DRIVING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 7731 3604 7736 3606 7754 3610 7755
      3610 7760 3615 7768 3614 7772 3613 7772
      3615 7774 3615 7789 3619 7793 3639 7790
      3637 7755 3633 7758 3631 7755 3633 7744
      3624 7737 3621 7738 3616 7727 3611 7722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 260DEG 23KT 3617 7776

DJF