Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. A 1003 MB WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN VICINITY OF DANVILLE VA.
ALOFT...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED AN H5 SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF THE
UPSTATE GA/SC BORDER. A DUAL JET CONFIGURATION WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS AT H3...WITH THE LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGIONS OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC.

OVERVIEW:
THE H5 SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW IN UPSTATE SC WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
DELMARVA/NJ BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURRING IN CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 00Z THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING (BETWEEN 00-06Z) IN
ASSOC/W LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL AMPLIFY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES:
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFT/EVE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
TRIAD IN THE UPPER 30S BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...RDU BY 03Z...AND
FAY/RWI BY 06Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY DROP AFTER 06Z (AFTER THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION)...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...OR 32-36F.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS:
GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...60-90 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND A DUAL JET CONFIGURATION OVER
THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FCST OF 100%
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH ~21Z. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ENDING
IN THE TRIAD BY ~21Z...TRIANGLE BY ~00Z AND THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
~01Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

SEVERE THREAT:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO PLACE EASTERN NC IN A 'SEE
TEXT' WITH 2% TOR AND 5% WIND PROBABILITIES. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL FORCING
ASSOC/W THIS SYSTEM IS RESPECTABLE (SEE ABOVE)...AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...40-50
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 200-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH. 12Z NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWED 250-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
THETA-E ADVECTION (IN ASSOC/W A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT) AND MID/UPPER LEVEL COOLING ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING H5
SHORTWAVE. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS CONFIRMS THAT THIS IS CLOSE TO
REALITY...WITH 250-500 J/KG SBCAPE ALONG/EAST OF I-95 AND IN SC
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION IN OR UPSTREAM OF CENTRAL
NC IN THE PAST 12-18 HRS. AS OF 18Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR
AN ISOLD TORNADO IS DIMINISHING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTH INTO VA
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SW. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RECENT DESTABILIZATION IN SC...AND A TREND OF STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE CORES ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SC...A LOW END
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFT/EVE.  -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA INTO WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW
IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT. AS THESE TROUGHS PASS
THROUGH...A 100-110KT 250MB JET LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD HELP TO
SUPPORT SOME MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS AS BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
PROVIDE FOR DECENT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT OR BELOW A HALF-INCH UNTIL WEDNESDAY...IN A GENERAL 850MB
THETA-E TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY 850MB SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE BUFR
SOUNDINGS. PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND
THEIR EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURE.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR MONDAY WOULD ONLY SUGGEST LOWER TO MID
50S BUT WITH MODEST MIXING AND A DRY AIR MASS WITH DECENT SUN
EXPECTED...WILL FORECAST HIGHS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE DIVERGENCE FOR TUESDAY AND THE
DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUDS OR AT LEAST THEIR OPAQUENESS IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE JET
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF OPAQUE
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND WILL FORECAST
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG AND BASICALLY NORTH OF
U.S. 64...IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 30 TO
35 SHOULD WARM TO A RANGE MAINLY FROM 35 TO 40 AS BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGEST AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT IN ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
UNDERNEATH ANY HIGH CLOUDS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GOOD 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WEST OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE QUICKLY TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 00Z THURSDAY AS 925MB WINDS IN THAT AREA
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 30 TO 35KT. AS THE OVERALL AIR MASS
MOISTENS...BROAD LIFT INCREASES AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
PROVIDE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT BY 00Z
THURSDAY...AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD
U.S. 1 BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL INCREASE THE
SPEED OF THE ONSET OF HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TOWARD THE YADKIN
RIVER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE ABOVE METEOROLOGICAL
PARAMETERS...A TREND UPWARD ON MEX MOS GUIDANCE...AND QPF ON THE 12Z
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS. UNDER CLOUDS AND APPROACHING
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 50S IN
THE TRIAD...RISING TO AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND ITS SLOW MOTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE GFS BY 12Z
THURSDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST. COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE LOW...WHICH ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS
BETTER INSTABILITY THAN THE ECMWF...TO -3C ON LIFTED INDICES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER AND MORE BACKED...WITH THE MID-TROUGH MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD COME THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE VERIFY...THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH PRIMARILY AN URBAN
CONCERN...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY PLAN TO NOTE VERY BRIEFLY IN THE HWO THESE THREATS.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MODEST RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY TO STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HELP...WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT...TO PUSH
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY GIVEN CURRENT LONG-TERM GUIDANCE TIMING. WITH THE
TROUGH FORECAST EVEN BY THE STRONGEST GUIDANCE TO STAY JUST TO OUR
NORTH...AND SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF...MOISTURE
SHOULD FIND IT DIFFICULT TO RETURN THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS OUT THAT FAR SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ONLY RISING JUST ABOVE A HALF-INCH AT BEST BY THE END OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES OF
NORMAL EACH PERIOD...COOLEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FIRST...STRONGER COLD FRONT...WARMEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTS THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN AND AGAIN
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
18-00Z AND CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT AND LIFTING TO VFR BY 00-06Z FROM
WEST TO EAST (MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER A LITTLE PAST 06Z AT THE
FAY/RWI TAF SITES). SOUTHERLY/SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT WILL RAPIDLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFT/EVE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO ~10
KT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST  AT 10-15 KT ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST...WEAKENING TO 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT...SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...AND ALLOWING FOR MVFR/IFR (AND PERHAPS LIFR) CEILINGS
EVERYWHERE BY 06-12Z WED. SUB-VFR CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT AND BECOME
VFR WITH DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING BY WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
AND PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS TO RETURN AGAIN WED NIGHT IN ASSOC/W WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU IN ASSOC/W A
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT/FRI. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-070930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
407 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. DUE TO STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY 3 PM IN THE
WEST...AND 7 PM IN THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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