Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Raleigh, NC

August 21, 2011Halifax County, Warren County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 21, 2011, 5:23 PM EDT for Halifax County, Warren County, North Carolina. It was in force for 52 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 21, 2011, 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC)
Expired: Aug 21, 2011, 6:15 PM EDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Halifax County, NC, Warren County, NC

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 21, 5:30 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Nnw Rosemary, NC	TREES BLOWN DOWN.
Aug 21, 5:36 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Weldon, NC	TREE BLOWN DOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 21, 2:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1537 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 811 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

647 
WUUS52 KRAH 212123
SVRRAH
NCC083-185-212215-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0314.110821T2123Z-110821T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
523 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HALIFAX COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER LITTLETON...OR 14 MILES WEST OF ROANOKE
  RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROSEMARY...
  ROANOKE RAPIDS...
  SOUTH WELDON...WELDON...
  HALIFAX...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7732 3600 7743 3615 7768 3615 7789
      3619 7797 3617 7798 3621 7800 3635 7792
      3635 7798 3653 7801 3655 7789 3651 7788
      3648 7764 3641 7754 3632 7757 3633 7745
      3624 7737 3621 7739 3616 7727 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 278DEG 20KT 3642 7787

$$

14

2 follow-up statements

825 
WWUS52 KRAH 212157
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
557 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCC185-212206-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-110821T2215Z/
WARREN NC-
557 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...


THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3609 7732 3600 7743 3606 7754 3610 7755
      3610 7760 3615 7768 3615 7789 3619 7792
      3618 7799 3621 7800 3635 7792 3649 7770
      3648 7764 3641 7754 3632 7757 3633 7745
      3624 7737 3621 7739 3616 7727 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 297DEG 24KT 3631 7762

$$

NCC083-212215-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-110821T2215Z/
HALIFAX NC-
557 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR HALIFAX COUNTY...

AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF 
HALIFAX...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... ENFIELD...TILLERY AND
SCOTLAND NECK.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3609 7732 3600 7743 3606 7754 3610 7755
      3610 7760 3615 7768 3615 7789 3619 7792
      3618 7799 3621 7800 3635 7792 3649 7770
      3648 7764 3641 7754 3632 7757 3633 7745
      3624 7737 3621 7739 3616 7727 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 297DEG 24KT 3631 7762

$$

14

231 
WWUS52 KRAH 212215
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
615 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCC083-212223-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-110821T2215Z/
HALIFAX NC-
615 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HALIFAX COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT HALIFAX COUNTY 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CROSSING THE 
ENFIELD AREA THROUGH 640 PM... WITH GUSTY WIND TO 45 MPH.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE 
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL 
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3609 7732 3600 7743 3606 7754 3610 7755
      3610 7760 3615 7768 3615 7789 3619 7792
      3618 7799 3621 7800 3635 7792 3649 7770
      3648 7764 3641 7754 3632 7757 3633 7745
      3624 7737 3621 7739 3616 7727 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 278DEG 20KT 3638 7753

$$

14

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 21, 2:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 21, 2:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THE FRONT SHOULD LIE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

SURFACE-BASED CAPE HAD INCREASED TO VALUES APPROACHING 2500J/KG ON
THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...WITH THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FAIRLY
ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HEADED TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A 50KT 250MB JETLET CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY THE
NAM TO MOVE ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER DURING THE
EVENING...AND GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. AMPLE 850MB LIFT IS FORECAST...AND WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR. SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS
THE NAM FORECASTS 0-3KM HELICITY RISING TO NEAR 100M2/S2 THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED COMING INTO
AT LEAST THE SANDHILLS TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND THE LAST TWO
OR THREE RUNS OF THE HRRR WRF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...
MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD HIGHER INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...HAVE ACTUALLY FORECAST CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT IN A SMALL AREA FROM NEAR KFAY AND KMEB EAST INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING QUICKLY THERE ESPECIALLY
BEYOND THE LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...WITH ONLY VERY
LIMITED...IF ANY...MOISTURE DECREASE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH...AND IT SHOULD LIE NEAR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FALL TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AND K INDICES FALL INTO THE SINGLE FIGURES IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY THEN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND AFTER ANY
LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN OR NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY
MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB
TO KGSB. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER NEGLIGIBLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD HELP RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT AND LINGERING MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY STABLE...WITH GRADUAL
DRYING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS...K INDICES TURNING NEGATIVE...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW AN INCH. UNDER A CLEAR SKY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER 50S IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ESPECIALLY NORTH OF U.S. 64. DEW POINTS TAKE LONGER TO FALL
TOWARD KFAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MID
60S. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS THE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE HIGH BUILDING IN IS SOMEWHAT TIGHT...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN JUST A LITTLE MIXING...ENOUGH TO KEEP READINGS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER... A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE
THROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR LATITUDE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF
OUR CWA THEN. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS TIME FRAME
(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON).

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
NEAR 1400 METERS. THIS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR (AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION) WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (83-88)... NEAR NORMAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 50S IN THE USUAL COOL RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE (HOWEVER... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL EXTEND BACK
INTO THE AREA) AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 METERS HIGHER. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
(MAINLY 85-89)... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH
REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER S/W TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECT TO TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND) ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS FEATURES WILL SINK BEFORE POSSIBLE AFFECTS AND/OR INTERACTIONS
WITH THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM IRENE. FOR THURSDAY THINK MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE DRY (SLIGHT CHANCE POP)... WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH AND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NHC FORECAST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IRENE TURNING NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND AFFECTING PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF FLORIDA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A
SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE OVERALL TRACK)... AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK IT NORTHWARD AND INTO OUR REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT DAYS 6 AND 7 OF THE
FORECAST AND TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL IN
DOUBT... WILL ONLY RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
LOWER HIGH TEMPS AT BIT. GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP AND GENERAL
TRACK... HEAVY RAIN... ISOLATED TORNADOES... AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S BOTH DAYS... WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

WITH REGARD TO THE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM... EVERYONE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ESPECIALLY IN THE SE US SHOULD KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NHC AND LOCAL WFOS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE TRIAD THIS EVENING...AND NUMEROUS
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD KFAY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...
ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI...AND MVFR FOG FOLLOWING SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI.

ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS TOWARD KFAY AND
KRWI...AND MIXING OF ANY MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY
AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THERE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THEN THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 21, 2:44 PM EDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-221845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 796 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING MAINLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM IRENE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS APPRECIATED. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY
TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-221845-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING MAINLY
IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. FINALLY...FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
ALSO A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING TROPICAL STORM IRENE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS SHOULD
STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DJF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 21, 4:32 PM EDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE LAURINBURG         34.77N  79.46W
08/21/2011                   SCOTLAND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR SOUTH MAIN ST

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101220

SEC

Special weather statement, Aug 21, 4:36 PM EDT, 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
436 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCZ077-212130-
HARNETT-
436 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT COUNTY THROUGH 530
PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LILLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUIES CREEK...
COATS...AND...ERWIN...DUNN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH
CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 7892 3547 7891 3548 7865 3547 7865
      3544 7861 3540 7860 3539 7858 3536 7856
      3534 7853 3532 7853 3530 7858 3528 7858
      3525 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 273DEG 11KT 3538 7880

MWS

Special weather statement, Aug 21, 4:45 PM EDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
445 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCZ083>085-212145-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
445 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND...RICHMOND AND
ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ELLERBE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKINGHAM...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ELLERBE...
ROCKINGHAM...DOBBINS HEIGHTS...HOFFMAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8005 3516 7998 3508 7958 3506 7957
      3507 7952 3506 7947 3504 7946 3476 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 284DEG 17KT 3502 7984

10

Special weather statement, Aug 21, 5:00 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCZ088-212200-
CUMBERLAND-
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HOPE MILLS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HOPE MILLS...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CEDAR CREEK...AND...
VANDER...STEDMAN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING
AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7892 3488 7893 3497 7905 3511 7894
      3516 7863 3514 7863 3509 7867 3499 7865
      3491 7855 3486 7849 3484 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 256DEG 14KT 3495 7886

MWS

Local storm report, Aug 21, 5:10 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DONNAHA             36.24N  80.37W
08/21/2011                   FORSYTH            NC   PUBLIC

            POWER LINE AND SEVERAL LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101221

SEC

Special weather statement, Aug 21, 5:10 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
510 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NCZ011-212215-
HALIFAX-
510 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY THROUGH 615
PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF LITTLETON
TO 13 MILES WEST OF LITTLETON TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AIRLIE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROANOKE RAPIDS TO
WARRENTON TO 6 MILES NORTH OF RALEIGH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...LITTLETON...
ROSEMARY...ROANOKE RAPIDS...SOUTH WELDON...SOUTH WELDON...HALIFAX.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7777 3648 7764 3645 7762 3641 7754
      3637 7754 3634 7758 3632 7757 3633 7744
      3629 7741 3627 7741 3624 7737 3621 7738
      3618 7732 3621 7800 3632 7793 3649 7791
      3652 7789
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 311DEG 23KT 3652 7789 3636 7811
          3588 7858

14

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 21, 2:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Richmond	40 min
Aug 21, 3:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Forsyth	64 min
Aug 21, 3:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson, Hoke, Richmond, Scotland	62 min
Aug 21, 3:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Person	60 min
Aug 21, 3:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Forsyth	55 min
Aug 21, 3:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Granville, Vance	39 min
Aug 21, 3:52 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Richmond, Scotland	3 hr
Aug 21, 3:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Hoke, Richmond, Scotland	46 min
Aug 21, 4:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Anson, Richmond	42 min
Aug 21, 4:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Johnston	65 min
Aug 21, 4:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wayne	58 min
Aug 21, 4:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Sampson	58 min
Aug 21, 4:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Granville, Vance	44 min
Aug 21, 4:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Harnett	54 min
Aug 21, 4:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Richmond	60 min
Aug 21, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Granville, Vance, Warren	42 min
Aug 21, 5:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Cumberland	60 min
Aug 21, 5:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Wayne	43 min
Aug 21, 5:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Halifax	65 min
Aug 21, 5:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Nash	44 min
Aug 21, 6:08 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Stanly	52 min
Aug 21, 6:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Edgecombe, Nash	66 min
Aug 21, 6:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Harnett	63 min
Aug 21, 6:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Harnett, Wake	41 min
Aug 21, 6:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Wilson	36 min
Aug 21, 7:00 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Edgecombe, Nash	3 hr
Aug 21, 7:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Chatham	60 min
Aug 21, 7:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Davidson	57 min
Aug 21, 7:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham	55 min
Aug 21, 7:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Franklin, Granville, Wake	54 min
Aug 21, 7:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Chatham	61 min
Aug 21, 7:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Franklin, Wake	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.