Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Raleigh, NC

May 27, 2011Davidson County, Forsyth County, Guilford County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 27, 2011, 1:52 PM EDT for Davidson County, Forsyth County, Guilford County, North Carolina. It was in force for 46 min. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 27, 2011, 1:52 PM EDT (17:52 UTC)
Expired: May 27, 2011, 2:38 PM EDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Davidson County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 27, 2:00 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Kernersville, NC	TREE FELL ONTO CARS.
May 27, 2:00 PM EDT	HAIL 0.75	3 W Kernersville, NC
May 27, 2:04 PM EDT	HAIL 1	Kernersville, NC
May 27, 2:05 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Nne Kernersville, NC	ROOF OFF OF A LUMBER COMPANY BUILDING.
May 27, 2:05 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Sse Sedge Garden, NC	TREES DOWN
May 27, 2:07 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Ssw Oak Ridge, NC	SEVERAL TREES... APPROX 2 FEET IN DIAMETER... UPROOTED IN A YARD ON TANYARD CT. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.
May 27, 2:15 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Sse Sedge Garden, NC	TREES DOWN
May 27, 2:15 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Stokesdale, NC	MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
May 27, 2:15 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Summerfield, NC	MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 8 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 8 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 27, 12:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 15 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -292 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 831 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

573 
WUUS52 KRAH 271752
SVRRAH
NCC057-067-081-271900-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0105.110527T1752Z-110527T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  EASTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
  WESTERN GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF SEDGE GARDEN...OR 8 MILES WEST
  OF HIGH POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEDGE GARDEN...
  KERNERSVILLE...
  COLFAX...
  SUMMERFIELD...STOKESDALE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A VEHICLE OR A NEARBY
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA AND COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8027 3624 7970 3606 7978 3592 8003
      3592 8004 3591 8005 3587 8012 3598 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 218DEG 30KT 3600 8012

$$

BLAES

4 follow-up statements

258 
WWUS52 KRAH 271800
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NCC057-067-081-271900-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110527T1900Z/
DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD...EASTERN FORSYTH AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON
COUNTIES...

AT 156 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEDGE 
GARDEN...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGH POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 
35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... JAMESTOWN...
KERNERSVILLE...WALKERTOWN...COLFAX...GREENSBORO...BELEWS CREEK...
STOKESDALE...SUMMERFIELD AND LAKE TOWNSEND.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CAPABLE OF BREAKING WINDOWS...
DAMAGING ROOFS AND DENTING VEHICLES. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3593 8006 3605 8024 3626 8027 3624 7970
      3606 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 218DEG 30KT 3605 8007

$$

BLAES

567 
WWUS52 KRAH 271814
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NCC057-271824-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110527T1900Z/
DAVIDSON NC-
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3600 7997 3614 8019 3626 8027 3624 7970
      3606 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 218DEG 30KT 3614 7998

$$

NCC067-081-271900-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110527T1900Z/
FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
214 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLFAX...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF HIGH POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... GREENSBORO...BELEWS
CREEK...STOKESDALE...SUMMERFIELD AND LAKE TOWNSEND.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CAPABLE OF BREAKING WINDOWS...
DAMAGING ROOFS AND DENTING VEHICLES. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3600 7997 3614 8019 3626 8027 3624 7970
      3606 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 218DEG 30KT 3614 7998

$$

BLAES

452 
WWUS52 KRAH 271821
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NCC067-271832-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110527T1900Z/
FORSYTH NC-
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3624 7970 3606 7978 3607 8004 3625 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 218DEG 30KT 3619 7993

$$

NCC081-271900-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110527T1900Z/
GUILFORD NC-
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTY...

AT 219 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUMMERFIELD...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BELEWS CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... LAKE TOWNSEND.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3624 7970 3606 7978 3607 8004 3625 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 218DEG 30KT 3619 7993

$$

BLAES

313 
WWUS52 KRAH 271838
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NCC081-271848-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110527T1900Z/
GUILFORD NC-
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3624 7970 3606 7978 3607 8004 3625 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 218DEG 30KT 3630 7983

$$

BLAES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 27, 10:36 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 10:36 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR AT 14Z
OVER UPSTATE SC LIFTING TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE
MOIST AND MODERATELY  UNSTABLE OVER THE REGION WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EXPECT COVERAGE THROUGH 2 PM TO BE BEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 1.
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AS BULK SHEAR (35 KTS AT 12Z
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT) HAS DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 30 KTS THOUGH
MLCAPE AT 14Z 1000-1800 J/KG OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION....KEEPING AIR MASS SLIGHT-TO-MODERATELY UNSTABLE. PER
VISIBLE IMAGERY...MORE SUN LIKELY OVER AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...WHILE SCATTERED T-STORMS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...PARAMETERS CURRENTLY SUGGEST HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND SANDHILLS WHERE PARTIAL SUN THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY WARMED
TEMPS TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES. POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. -WSS

TONIGHT: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS BOTH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND EARLIER INSTABILITY WEAKEN WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE/SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
THE PARENT TROUGH ALOFT SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD GROUND MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER RAIN SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS.
LOWS GENERALLY 62 TO 68 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY: A CONTINUED WEAKENING BUT LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...BY THEN OVERTAKEN SOMEWHAT
BY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
THESE SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WITH LESSER
INTENSITY THAN TODAY...SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF RELATIVELY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND DRIFTED EASTWARD
AND THE BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL AWAY
FROM NC - AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE PULSE
WIND/HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH
PARTLY (TO MOSTLY SUNNY WEST) SKIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD...
BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER TROUGHING
INVOF NC. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM
THE CALMING SURFACE RIDGE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG TO AGAIN DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE...WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGING
OVER THE AREA INITIALLY...THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 90S. IF FACT...CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THEN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD...MODELS
SHOW AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY
RESULTING FROM THE ANTICIPATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM FRIDAY...

IFR-MVFR STRATUS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR...BETWEEN 14 AND
17Z...SLOWEST FROM KRDU WESTWARD TO TRIAD TERMINALS. EVEN
THEN...PERIODS OF BROKEN CUMULUS/CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
2500-4000 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY WEST OF
KRWI AND KFAY (WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED). THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MOST
NUMEROUS FROM NEAR KRDU AND ESPECIALLY POINTS JUST WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF KRDU TOWARD TRIAD TERMINALS...WITH HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...GIVEN THE CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL NEAR OR JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NC. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD GROUND MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN
SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY THEN DEVELOP
EACH DAY THROUGH TUE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...
DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 12:14 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1214 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1214 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... PARTICULARLY
IN THE VICINITY OF U.S. HIGHWAY ONE...WHERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
55 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 27, 1:39 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
139 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     HAIL             DURHAM                  35.98N  78.92W
05/27/2011  E0.88 INCH       DURHAM             NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN DURHAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100670

MEB

Local storm report, May 27, 1:40 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     HAIL             DURHAM                  35.98N  78.92W
05/27/2011  E0.50 INCH       DURHAM             NC   PUBLIC

            HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED IN DURHAM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100671

MEB

Local storm report, May 27, 1:42 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     HAIL             CHAPEL HILL             35.93N  79.04W
05/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       ORANGE             NC   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100672

MEB

Special weather statement, May 27, 1:43 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

NCZ021-022-038-039-271915-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH... GUILFORD...FORSYTH AND
DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HIGH POINT...SEDGE
GARDEN...KERNERSVILLE...COLFAX...SUMMERFIELD AND WESTERN GREENSBORO.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8039 3589 8037 3591 8038 3592 8037
      3593 8038 3626 8034 3625 7987 3611 7972
      3592 7986 3571 8016 3588 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 224DEG 30KT 3593 8018

BLAES

Local storm report, May 27, 1:45 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N CHAPEL HILL         35.94N  79.04W
05/27/2011  M2.41 INCH       ORANGE             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER IN CHAPEL HILL REPORTED 2.41 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100673

MEB

Local storm report, May 27, 1:51 PM EDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             4 E OXFORD              36.31N  78.52W
05/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRANVILLE          NC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100674

DJF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 26, 10:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth	61 min
May 26, 11:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Guilford, Montgomery, Randolph, Stanly	42 min
May 26, 11:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Guilford, Randolph	27 min
May 26, 11:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance, Chatham, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Orange	43 min
May 27, 1:48 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson	57 min
May 27, 11:25 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Franklin and 15 more	90 min
May 27, 11:50 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Durham	40 min
May 27, 11:56 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Durham, Granville	94 min
May 27, 12:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Wake	45 min
May 27, 12:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Granville, Wake	45 min
May 27, 12:36 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Chatham	84 min
May 27, 12:43 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Anson, Richmond	107 min
May 27, 12:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson, Hoke, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond, Scotland	83 min
May 27, 12:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Durham	62 min
May 27, 1:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Granville, Vance	61 min
May 27, 1:23 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Hoke, Moore, Scotland	3 hr
May 27, 1:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Durham, Orange	57 min
May 27, 1:26 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Chatham, Durham, Granville, Orange	3 hr
May 27, 1:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Granville	27 min
May 27, 1:35 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Chatham, Durham, Granville, Orange	3 hr
May 27, 1:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford	92 min
May 27, 1:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham, Durham, Wake	61 min
May 27, 2:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Granville, Vance, Warren	49 min
May 27, 2:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke	56 min
May 27, 2:25 PM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	RAH	Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham and 16 more	14 hr
May 27, 2:28 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Chatham, Durham, Harnett, Wake	3 hr
May 27, 2:45 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Harnett, Wake	2 hr
May 27, 2:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Franklin, Granville, Johnston, Wake	44 min
May 27, 3:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Granville, Vance	64 min
May 27, 4:21 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Durham, Orange	97 min
May 27, 5:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Forsyth	43 min
May 27, 5:56 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Forsyth	94 min
May 27, 6:22 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Hoke, Moore, Richmond, Scotland	53 min
May 27, 6:25 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Hoke, Moore, Richmond, Scotland	50 min
May 27, 7:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RAH	Anson	34 min
May 27, 7:25 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Anson	95 min
May 27, 7:46 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Anson	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.