Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS THAT
HAS BROUGHT THE DRY AND STABLE WEATHER OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW A FEW ECHOES OVER IDAHO
AND WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME
OF THESE WILL PUSH EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY RAIN FREE. ON THURSDAY A MORE POTENT WAVE WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.THE SPC HAS PART OF THE CWA VERY
CLOSE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD GET STRONG
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRONG WINDS AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO COOL A FEW DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
FRONT EXITING STAGE EAST ON FRIDAY EXPECT A COOLER BUT DRIER DAY
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HATTINGS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.FOR THE WEEKEND THE
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. NO REAL CHANGES IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAVORED
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER FOR MIDWEEK SO WE BUMPED
POPS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THAT TIME FRAME. HATTINGS
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES.   THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE.  EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER
HIGH ELEVATIONS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FRIDAY OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...MOST RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE HENRYS FORK WHERE CONTINUED HIGH ALTITUDE SNOW MELT
WILL KEEP THE RIVER AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE BEAR RIVER IN IDAHO AND ANOTHER STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON. HATTINGS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

IDZ017>025-031-032-230930-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
322 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOTHING
IS FORECAST TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS POINT. LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

DESPITE COOLER WEATHER FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW...SNOWMELT
CONTINUES. EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
WIDESPREAD HIGH WATER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND BANKFULL IN
THE COMING DAYS. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BEAR RIVER FROM THE WYOMING BORDER TO STEWART DAM. SOME
LOWLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE TETON RIVER NEAR ST ANTHONY BEARS
WATCHING AS WELL. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT IS FOR THE
HENRYS FORK AT REXBURG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
950 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

IDZ017-031-230430-
LINCOLN ID-BLAINE ID-
950 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO

UNTIL 1030 PM MDT

AT 946 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF SHOSHONE..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   RICHFIELD...
   PICABO...
   CAREY...

LAT...LON 4346 11403 4319 11376 4297 11435 4311 11446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 232DEG 37KT 4308 11432

HEDGES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
138 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

IDZ023-230815-
CARIBOU ID-BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-BANNOCK ID-
138 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTH CENTRAL BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHERN CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 215 AM MDT

AT 133 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MCCAMMON..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   PEBBLE...
   BANCROFT...
   CHESTERFIELD...
   CONDA...
   HENRY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4316 11147 4277 11122 4253 11229 4270 11230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 238DEG 43KT 4267 11213

JKEYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
221 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

IDZ023-230845-
CARIBOU ID-BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-
221 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHEASTERN CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 245 AM MDT

AT 219 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HENRY..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   WAYAN...
   GRAY...
   FREEDOM...
   HERMAN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4290 11104 4281 11157 4297 11173 4333 11105
      4332 11104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 247DEG 44KT 4293 11149

JKEYES