Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Pocatello, ID

844 
WWUS55 KPIH 232148
SVSPIH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
348 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

IDC071-232159-
/O.CAN.KPIH.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-110623T2215Z/
ONEIDA ID-
348 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...SAMARIA...CHERRY CREEK AND MALAD CITY.

LAT...LON 4202 11276 4221 11225 4200 11219 4199 11273
      4199 11275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 250DEG 23KT 4206 11250

$$

HEDGES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
140 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH BEARING DOWN ON IDAHO PER WV SAT
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN
IDAHO. BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION PER SATELLITE BUT
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATION TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AMPLY MOIST FOR THIS REGION. ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE WITH LAPS ANALYZED LIFTED INDICES IN THE -2 TO -4
RANGE AND CAPE OVER 1500J/KG ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. A FEW WEAK
STORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH THE
REMAINING AREA QUIET FOR NOW. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT. STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY TO STAY NORTH OF FCST AREA
BUT COULD SEE A FEW RATHER STRONG CELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW REMAINING AT
THE BC CANADA/ALBERTA BORDER. A LINGERING TAIL OF MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND NAM IS VERY FAVORABLE IN CONTINUING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY. SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT BEHIND FRONT AND WILL
ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR. MODELS SHIFT UPPER LOW CENTER EAST BUT LEAVE
BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH MONTANA TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO WHILE UPPER
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD ALONG COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. NEXT PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACNW COAST WITH BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODEL RUNS. EARLY
LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF BRINGS SOLUTION IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND HOLDS
STRONG UPPER LOW OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WOULD IMPLY A
DRIER SOLUTION FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY HAVE LEFT WEAK POPS JUST UNDER CLIMO FOR THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST INTO CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS SRN
IDAHO. SCT-BKN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 04Z. THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED MOVING
INTO WRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. HUSTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD STAEMENT FOR HENRYS NEAR REXBURG
WITH CONTINUED HIGH FLOWS DUE TO SNOWMELT. OTHER RIVERS IN THE
REGION REMAIN HIGH BUT BELOW FLOOD CONCERN. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SO
SNOWMELT SHOULD CONTINUE. PRECIPITATION THREATS AT THIS TIME
REMAIN CONVECTIVE AND NOT WIDESPREAD SO BASINS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE HIT OR MISS RAINFALL TOTALS. GROUND IS SATURATED
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT BELIEVE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY IDZ021.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
342 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

IDZ017>025-031-032-240945-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
342 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AS THE BIGGEST THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD IS FOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS DUE TO MOSTLY SNOWMELT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT TERM RAPID RISES DUE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR THAT ARE LOW. THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE HENRYS FORK AT REXBURG REMAIN IN EFFECT. AREAS WE ARE
WATCHING FOR RISING WATER LEVELS ARE THE BEAR RIVER UPSTREAM OF
STEWART DAM...SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ALSO THE HEADWATERS OF THE SNAKE...HENRYS FORK AND TETON
RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
214 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

IDZ022-232115-
ONEIDA ID-POWER ID-CASSIA ID-
214 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CASSIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
  SOUTHEASTERN POWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  ONEIDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 315 PM MDT

AT 206 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLACK PINE..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HOLBROOK...
   PLEASANTVIEW...
   BUIST...

LAT...LON 4211 11306 4256 11247 4236 11231 4233 11233
      4232 11228 4212 11212 4199 11277 4199 11297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 241DEG 25KT 4207 11289

DMH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
238 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

IDZ021-023-232130-
CARIBOU ID-BINGHAM ID-BANNOCK ID-
238 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTHEASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 330 PM MDT

AT 230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF INKOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   CHESTERFIELD...

LAT...LON 4316 11189 4291 11166 4274 11213 4291 11229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 233DEG 22KT 4287 11210

HUSTON