Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT, THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY. HURRICANE
IRENE WILL THEN MOVE NORTH UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES ON IRENE. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO EXIT TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE FRONT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET STILL TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON, POPS ARE HIGH CHANCE
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE ROUND
OF CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMOVED A
GOOD DEAL OF THE INSTABILITY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. WE THEREFORE ONLY ARE CARRYING ENHANCED WORDING THERE. WE
STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO HANG UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT THERE ONLY. WE
CONTINUE TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A DAMP BOUNDARY LAYER. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE
FROM NEAR GUIDANCE NORTHWEST TO A BIT ABOVE IT SOUTHEAST, AND THAT
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FAIRLY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT HANGING UP AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WE WERE CARRYING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
SOUTH. MUCAPES SUPPORT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT CONTINUITY, AND ALL WE DID WAS TAMP DOWN SOUTHERN TEMPS A
LITTLE WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
NEW 11 AM TRACK FORECAST FROM THE NHC. THE TRACK IS NOW BRINGING
THE STORM RIGHT UP THE DEL AND NJ COASTS. THIS WILL BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS TO ALL MARINE AREAS AND TO MUCH OF EASTERN DE AND NJ.
THE WIND GUSTS WERE CAPPED AT 92 KNOTS FOR NOW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. WE WANT TO STRESS THAT IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MID AND LONGER RANGE, SINCE LARGE ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE.
WE EXPECT EXTENSIVE IMPACTS FROM THIS HURRICANE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE PEAK GENERALLY OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES BY OUR REGION WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL IMPACTS, HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A RATHER ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS IMPACTS ON
OUR AREA FROM THIS HURRICANE. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR
THIS LARGE STORM AS NOW IS THE TIME. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL SYMBOLIZE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY TURN INTO A
COASTAL FRONT OR WARM FRONT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE
WELL AHEAD OF IRENE. THE ADVECTION OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIALLY A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
FOR THIS REASON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS THE TIME FRAME OF MOST CONCERN. THE MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
NJ. THE LATEST NHC TRACK HAS IRENE RIDING RIGHT UP THE NJ COAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AN INITIAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT WITH SOME WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND. A SECONDARY TROUGH THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE FORWARD SPEED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE HURRICANES TRACK. THIS IS DANGEROUS AS A
LATER TIMING IN THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOME MORE WILL TEND TO ALLOW
THE HURRICANE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST, WHICH IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING. THIS TREND IS EXTREMELY CONCERNING. THIS IS A
LARGE HURRICANE, AND EVEN IF THE CENTER STAYS OFF THE COAST, WE
WILL STILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS FROM IT. OUR WIND FORECAST IS BASED
OFF OF THE GRIDDED WIND FIELD FROM THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER/NHC/ FORECAST. WE GENERALLY BASED OUR POPS MORE TOWARD A BLEND
WHICH ENDS UP SIMILAR TO THE GFS. IF THE CENTER TRACKS FARTHER OFF
THE COAST, THEN THERE MAY BE A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAIN
SHIELD ACROSS THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST /LIKE THE 00Z CMC SHOWS/.
IF THE STORM SHIFTS TO AN INLAND TRACK, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
RECEIVE INUNDATING RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE. EVERYTHING REMAINS ON THE TABLE WITH THIS HURRICANE,
WHICH INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN,
COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/WAVES AND BEACH EROSION.

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED
BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD
SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A
BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5
INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE
CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND/OR
LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE RAIN RATES. THE
INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A COASTAL TYPE FRONT COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND
ALSO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE
WEATHER/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE ALTHOUGH THIS STILL
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONES, ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, WE CAN BEGIN THE CLEANUP. OVERALL A MUCH CALMER
WEATHER PERIOD COMING MONDAY-THURSDAY. A WEEK TROUGH WILL SKIRT
OUR REGION TUESDAY WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT.THE 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY GIVEN THIS IS ONLY MODEL WHICH SHOWS ANYTHING, THIS
ALSO AGREES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
THE END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS UNTIL
SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY. THIS MAY INCREASE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY AS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GFS FEEL THIS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FAST THUS THE
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE SOME MID
80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONLY NEAR
80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE EXPECT MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TO BE AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT, FIRST IN CONVECTION AND THEN IN FOG DUE TO SOME RADIATING
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE MOIST AIR LINGERING NEAR
THE SURFACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY, AND FOR NOW WE ARE CARRYING A VFR FORECAST. POSSIBLE
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, MAY CAUSE LOCAL
DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE COAST MAY HELP
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY CONVECTION. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND UP TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH UP THE EAST COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR AREA. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN
INCREASED THREAT TO OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL SET IN WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS EVENTUALLY
TURNING NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE STORM MOVES ON BY. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND THE TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN, WE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE DETAILS. BOTTOM LINE IS
THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR TERMINALS,
WHICH INCLUDES STRONG WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, POSSIBLE TSTMS/
TORNADOES AND INCREDIBLY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS. THE STORM
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WITH FAIR VFR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS SHOULD RELAX TONIGHT, BUT WE ANTICIPATE SEAS TO STAY UP
IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND IT QUITE LIKELY WILL
BE EXTENDED UNLESS/UNTIL A TROPICAL WARNING IS ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED NEAR THE COAST
IN A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION, OTHERWISE A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, HOWEVER INCOMING SWELLS FROM THE
HURRICANE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SEAS TO NEAR 5 OR 6 FEET.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIALLY FOR
SERIOUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM HURRICANE IRENE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD. WITH THE LATEST NHC TRACK RIGHT ALONG THE NJ
COAST, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS TO OVER 20 FT OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS.
THE INCREASING SWELLS ALONG WITH THE OVERALL INCREASING SEAS WILL
TEND TO TURN CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS FROM ROUGH TO EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. WE WILL HAVE TO PARTICULARLY WATCH DELAWARE BAY DUE
TO POSSIBLE FUNNELING UP OF A SOUTHEAST WIND FOR A TIME PRECEDING
THE HURRICANE. IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/NHC/, WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY
DROP ANY OTHER MARINE HEADLINES THAT ARE UP AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER. WE GENERALLY ARE USING A WIND GUST TOOL WITH NO
MIXING AS IT WAS GIVING US RATHER RAMPED UP GUSTS, THEREFORE
GENERALLY CAPPING THE GUSTS AT 92 KNOTS AT THIS POINT. ALL
INTERESTS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE HURRICANE WILL LEAD
TO THE FIRST HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPROVEMENTS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW FLOOD
ADVISORIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM MAY RESULT IN SOME
MORE LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE EVENT OF
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE HURRICANE IRENE WITH BANDS OF RAIN MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT THE CURRENT NHC PATH PUTS THE REGION IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BY DAYS END SUNDAY.
ALREADY THIS MONTH SOME LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
RECORD RAINFALL ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE INCREASING AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES
NORTH. COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE STORM, THERE COULD BE MODERATE TO SEVERE FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR FLOODING
COULD OCCUR AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY EVENING IN OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS AS LONG AS IRENE HAS NOT MOVED NORTH BY
THAT TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR FRIDAY WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...GAINES/RPW
AVIATION...DELISI/RPW
MARINE...DELISI/RPW
HYDROLOGY...GAINES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RPW
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-262015-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-262015-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-NJZ012-013-020-022-023-027-262015-
INLAND SUSSEX-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO, A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-024>026-262015-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO, A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-262015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY HIGH SEAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-262015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-262015-
DELAWARE BEACHES-
409 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO, A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RPW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ069-251845-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CAROLINE MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-
MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
OCEAN NJ-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1150 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BUCKS...
BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...CAROLINE...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...
KENT...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...NEW CASTLE...OCEAN...
QUEEN ANNE'S...SALEM...SOMERSET AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 1143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ALONG A BROKEN LINE FROM MIDDLESEX
COUNTY SOUTH TO KENT COUNTY MARYLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3974 7409 3950 7432 3953 7440 3948 7433
      3927 7455 3916 7490 3917 7514 3938 7545
      3902 7533 3891 7571 3890 7625 3955 7558
      4010 7485 4057 7449 4060 7421 4047 7427
      4040 7399 4047 7401 4046 7398

HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ002-003-MDZ015-019-020-251900-
CAROLINE MD-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
124 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...KENT...QUEEN
ANNE'S...SUSSEX AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASTON OVER TILGHMAN
ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR
SKIPTON...EASTON AROUND 130 PM...GRIFFIN...CORDOVA AROUND 145
PM...DENTON...GREENSBORO AROUND 200 PM...HARRINGTON...FELTON AROUND
215 PM...FREDERICA AND HOUSTON AROUND 230 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3867 7617 3883 7624 3882 7621 3885 7620
      3887 7624 3887 7621 3890 7622 3892 7619
      3913 7539 3907 7539 3903 7533 3898 7529
      3893 7530 3880 7516

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NJZ021>025-252145-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY
AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE MAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR FORTESQUE...CAPE MAY POINT
AROUND 250 PM...NORTH CAPE MAY...CAPE MAY AROUND 255 PM...VILLAS...
ERMA...DIVIDING CREEK AROUND 300 PM...BIVALVE...GREEN CREEK AND PORT
NORRIS AROUND 305 PM. THIS IS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING DELAWARE AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL SLOWLY EDGE THEIR WAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT CAPE MAY
COUNTY THE MOST.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LAT...LON 3935 7441 3930 7454 3912 7470 3907 7471
      3902 7479 3899 7479 3893 7488 3892 7497
      3899 7498 3915 7490 3918 7497 3918 7503
      3920 7505 3917 7514 3924 7521 3961 7461
      3946 7429

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ002-003-252045-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-
347 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTH OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BIG STONE BEACH AND
SLAUGHTER BEACH AROUND 400 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3896 7558 3906 7537 3903 7533 3898 7529
      3893 7530 3890 7527 3890 7525 3888 7525
      3880 7546

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>019-021-022-252215-
ATLANTIC NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT DE-
NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SALEM NJ-
441 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...
CAMDEN...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...KENT...NEW CASTLE AND SALEM
COUNTIES...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES EAST OF MIDDLETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR SEABROOK FARMS...BRIDGETON AROUND
500 PM...OLIVET...MALAGA AROUND 515 PM...NEWFIELD...BUENA AROUND 530
PM...COLLINGS LAKES...FOLSOM AROUND 545 PM...ELWOOD-MAGNOLIA AND
ELWOOD AROUND 600 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3929 7532 3934 7535 3933 7537 3943 7548
      3945 7554 3958 7556 3952 7554 3958 7556
      3946 7558 3927 7540 3922 7551 3922 7552
      3934 7569 3953 7565 3996 7496 3953 7463

TFG