Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
TEND TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE IRENE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST CARRIES SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO EXIT
TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST INTO MONDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY INCREASE
GRADUALLY.

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
HAS ALSO AFFECTED THE STABILITY OVER OUR AREA. A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS OVER EASTERN PA, AS REFLECTED IN OBSERVED CAPE
VALUES. AS THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NJ AND THE DELMARVA, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO SERVE TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THESE
AREAS SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING EXPECTED, IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REGAIN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA TO SUPPORT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR NOW HOWEVER, WE HAVE DECIDED TO RETAIN THE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WORDING WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE IN QUESTION, THE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GETTING UP AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, MAY YIELD SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WE HAVE
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER, OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ANY STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS POINT. THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREA FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THIS EVENING.

WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT, WE HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. READINGS MAY FALL ONLY TO
AROUND 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
THE UPPER DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
NEW 11 AM TRACK FORECAST FROM THE NHC. THE TRACK IS NOW BRINGING
THE STORM RIGHT UP THE DEL AND NJ COASTS. THIS WILL BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS TO ALL MARINE AREAS AND TO MUCH OF EASTERN DE AND NJ.
THE WIND GUSTS WERE CAPPED AT 92 KNOTS FOR NOW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. WE WANT TO STRESS THAT IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LONGER RANGE, SINCE ERRORS ARE UP TO 200 MILES /THE STORM
IS NOT A SINGLE POINT/. WE EXPECT IMPACTS FROM THIS HURRICANE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE PEAK GENERALLY OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES BY OUR REGION WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL IMPACTS, HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A RATHER ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS IMPACTS ON
OUR AREA FROM THIS HURRICANE. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR
THIS LARGE STORM AS NOW IS THE TIME. HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE.

WE BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS GENERALLY THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
STALLED PROBABLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS MAY TURN INTO A COASTAL
FRONT OR WARM FRONT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WELL
AHEAD OF IRENE. THE ADVECTION OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIALLY A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
FOR THIS REASON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS THE TIME FRAME OF MOST CONCERN. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WIGGLE WEST TO EAST WITH THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE IRENE AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AN INITIAL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT WITH SOME WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND. A SECONDARY TROUGH
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE FORWARD SPEED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE HURRICANES TRACK. THIS IS DANGEROUS AS A
LATER TIMING IN THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOME MORE WILL TEND TO ALLOW
THE HURRICANE TO TRACK FARTHER WEST, WHICH IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING. THIS TREND IS EXTREMELY CONCERNING. THIS IS A
LARGE HURRICANE, AND EVEN IF THE CENTER STAYS OFF THE COAST, WE
WILL STILL HAVE IMPACTS FROM IT. OUR WIND FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF
THE GRIDDED WIND FIELD FROM THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
/NHC/ FORECAST. WE GENERALLY BASED OUR POPS MORE TOWARD A BLEND
WHICH ENDS UP SIMILAR TO THE GFS. IF THE CENTER TRACKS FARTHER OFF
THE COAST, THEN THERE MAY BE A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE RAIN
SHIELD ACROSS THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST /LIKE THE 00Z CMC SHOWS/.
EVERYTHING REMAINS ON THE TABLE WITH THIS HURRICANE, WHICH
INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, COASTAL
FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/WAVES AND BEACH EROSION.

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED
BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD
SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A
BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5
INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE
CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND/OR
LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE RAIN RATES. THE
INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A COASTAL TYPE FRONT COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND
ALSO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE
WEATHER/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE ALTHOUGH THIS STILL
NEEDS TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONES, ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

FOR MONDAY, A MORE TRANQUIL TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
IRENE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS MONDAY PROGRESSES AND SUBSIDENCE
AROUND IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GENERALLY SLIDES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH FORCING TO
LATCH ONTO THIS FAR OUT, THEREFORE WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT KRDG AND KABE DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH OUR
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT,
AVIATION WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED. HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PROBABLE IMAPACTS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO PASS OFF THE COAST
EARLY TONIGHT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT IN
THEIR WAKE. AS A RESULT, THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH FOR
TONIGHT, EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE COAST MAY HELP
FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
AT NIGHT. OVERALL, SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION WITH
ANY CONVECTION. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND UP TO 10 KNOTS IS
ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWARD AND MOVE NEAR OUR AREA. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EXACT TRACK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASED THREAT TO OUR
AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
SET IN WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST AS THE STORM MOVES ON BY. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
AND THE TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN, WE WILL BE ABLE TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC WITH THE DETAILS. BOTTOM LINE IS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR TERMINALS, WHICH INCLUDES STRONG
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN. THE STORM SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...A CALMER TIME FRAME AS IRENE IS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAVES SHOULD BE AROUND 5 FEET. AS A
RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. GUSTS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE LOWER ON DELAWARE BAY THAN ON THE OCEAN, SO AN
ADVISORY IS NOT IS EFFECT THERE.

WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, WAVES ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5 FEET.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING AND SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED NEAR THE COAST IN A
NEARLY STATIONARY FASHION. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTION,
OTHERWISE A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED. THE FLOW SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, HOWEVER INCOMING SWELLS FROM THE HURRICANE
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET THUS A CONTINUATION OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 22Z.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIALLY FOR
SERIOUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM HURRICANE IRENE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS HURRICANE, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY GOVERN THE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
BASED ON A VARIETY OF GUIDANCE TRACKS. THE INCREASING SWELLS ALONG
WITH THE OVERALL INCREASING SEAS WILL TEND TO TURN CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS ROUGH TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. WE WILL HAVE TO
PARTICULARLY WATCH DELAWARE BAY DUE TO POSSIBLE FUNNELING UP OF A
SOUTHEAST WIND FOR A TIME PRECEDING THE HURRICANE. IN THE EVENT
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
/NHC/, WE WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY DROP ANY OTHER MARINE HEADLINES
THAT ARE UP AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND THE EXACT TRACK BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN. WE GENERALLY ARE USING A WIND GUST TOOL WITH NO
MIXING AS IT WAS GIVING US RATHER RAMPED UP GUSTS, THEREFORE
GENERALLY CAPPING THE GUSTS AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS AT THIS POINT. ALL
INTERESTS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE HURRICANE WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY LEAD TO THE FIRST HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS
WEEKEND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BE LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH
LATER SUNDAY, THEREFORE IMPROVEMENTS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE.

MONDAY...IRENE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA THEREFORE ANY LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LESSEN THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PW VALUES START TO SURGE NORTHWARD
WITH THE FLOW TURNING ONSHORE. THIS COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED
ESPECIALLY IF A COASTAL FRONT IS IN PLACE OWING TO LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. THE TIME FRAME TO KEY IN ON STILL APPEARS TO
BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HURRICANE IRENE
MOVES UP THE COAST. WHILE THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AND WHERE THE MAIN AXIS IS, PLENTY OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IS FORECAST TO SURGE UP THE COAST. THIS IS
SEEN IN THE PW VALUES FORECAST WHICH REACHES 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE VALUES
SURGE TO A LITTLE OVER 3.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA IF THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS RIGHT AT THE COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF RATHER DEEP, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE HURRICANE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SEGMENT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WOULD LEAD TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS. THIS WOULD BE ENHANCED EVEN
FURTHER WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS. AS OF NOW, SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. HOWEVER IF
THE HURRICANE TRACKS FAR ENOUGH OFF OF OUR COAST, THE GRADIENT IN
THE RAIN SHIELD MAY BE RATHER TIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY
IF ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OCCURS TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK. A CLOSER TO
LAND TRACK WOULD SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WESTWARD. THIS NEEDS TO
BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST OF THE AREA HAS
BEEN RATHER WET THIS MONTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH ALONG THE COAST, IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH TODAY'S RISK FOR RIP CURRENT WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/KLINE
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/RPW
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-260830-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ070-071-260830-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ003-NJZ012-013-020-022-023-027-260830-
INLAND SUSSEX-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO, A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ014-024>026-260830-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO, A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450>455-260830-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR VERY HIGH SEAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-260830-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-260830-
DELAWARE BEACHES-
423 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL STALLED FRONT IN THE
VICINITY WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF THIS IS INCREASING. SINCE
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH, THE PRESENCE OF IRENE MAY CAUSE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO, A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED
STARTING LATER FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ068>071-251615-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA
1002 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AT 40 MPH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. ROADSIDE DITCH AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ069-251845-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CAROLINE MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-
MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
OCEAN NJ-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1150 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BUCKS...
BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...CAROLINE...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...
KENT...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...NEW CASTLE...OCEAN...
QUEEN ANNE'S...SALEM...SOMERSET AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 1143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ALONG A BROKEN LINE FROM MIDDLESEX
COUNTY SOUTH TO KENT COUNTY MARYLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3974 7409 3950 7432 3953 7440 3948 7433
      3927 7455 3916 7490 3917 7514 3938 7545
      3902 7533 3891 7571 3890 7625 3955 7558
      4010 7485 4057 7449 4060 7421 4047 7427
      4040 7399 4047 7401 4046 7398

HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ002-003-MDZ015-019-020-251900-
CAROLINE MD-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
124 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...KENT...QUEEN
ANNE'S...SUSSEX AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 121 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EASTON OVER TILGHMAN
ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR
SKIPTON...EASTON AROUND 130 PM...GRIFFIN...CORDOVA AROUND 145
PM...DENTON...GREENSBORO AROUND 200 PM...HARRINGTON...FELTON AROUND
215 PM...FREDERICA AND HOUSTON AROUND 230 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3867 7617 3883 7624 3882 7621 3885 7620
      3887 7624 3887 7621 3890 7622 3892 7619
      3913 7539 3907 7539 3903 7533 3898 7529
      3893 7530 3880 7516

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NJZ021>025-252145-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
242 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY
AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE MAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR FORTESQUE...CAPE MAY POINT
AROUND 250 PM...NORTH CAPE MAY...CAPE MAY AROUND 255 PM...VILLAS...
ERMA...DIVIDING CREEK AROUND 300 PM...BIVALVE...GREEN CREEK AND PORT
NORRIS AROUND 305 PM. THIS IS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY EXITING DELAWARE AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL SLOWLY EDGE THEIR WAY FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT CAPE MAY
COUNTY THE MOST.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE STRONGER STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LAT...LON 3935 7441 3930 7454 3912 7470 3907 7471
      3902 7479 3899 7479 3893 7488 3892 7497
      3899 7498 3915 7490 3918 7497 3918 7503
      3920 7505 3917 7514 3924 7521 3961 7461
      3946 7429

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DEZ002-003-252045-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-
347 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTH OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BIG STONE BEACH AND
SLAUGHTER BEACH AROUND 400 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3896 7558 3906 7537 3903 7533 3898 7529
      3893 7530 3890 7527 3890 7525 3888 7525
      3880 7546

TFG