Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE ARRIVING IN OUR AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO SPIN
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING CONVECTION IS STILL A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA, ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FEED OFF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND AN INCH BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF IN A MAINLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL END OVERNIGHT THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM ACROSS THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND AND THE CLOUDS LOOK TO
HANG AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST ON
TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALTHOUGH GREATER CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
AGAIN NEED TO BE MONITORED IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE DRIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIGGING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A CLEARING SKY
IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

HUMIDITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS
OVER OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND
WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE MID LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE
EAST. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL
LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING.

WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING SPILLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR
CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SITES DROPPING
INTO MVFR AT TIMES AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE
CONVECTION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS EVENING THERE WILL STILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AROUND, ALLOWING CEILINGS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MVFR
RANGE. SOME SITES WILL ALSO SEE FOG DEVELOP AND VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP TO AROUND 3-5 MILES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AS A RESULT, THERE MAY BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN FAIRLY CALM TODAY WITH NO HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COASTS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. A
WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH MAY ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH NO
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...HEAVENER/IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
248 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

PAZ054-060-061-067-161900-
CARBON-BERKS-LEHIGH-CHESTER-
248 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ055-062-
068>071-161900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
248 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-161900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
248 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

NJZ023-024-152115-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
415 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAPE MAY COUNTY...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF CAPE MAY...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CAPE MAY POINT AROUND 430 PM...
GREEN CREEK...VILLAS AROUND 445 PM...SCOTCH BONNET...CAPE MAY COURT
HOUSE AROUND 500 PM...AVALON AND SEA ISLE CITY AROUND 515 PM.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE BEACH AREAS
WILL ALSO BE EFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3920 7464 3912 7470 3907 7471 3902 7479
      3899 7479 3893 7488 3892 7497 3899 7498
      3911 7490 3920 7493 3922 7490 3926 7489
      3930 7480 3928 7468 3929 7465 3929 7455

FORECASTER:JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
809 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

NJZ017-PAZ070-160100-
DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
809 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DELAWARE AND GLOUCESTER
COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 3964 7517 3976 7541 3981 7544 3984 7555
      3987 7561 3999 7545 4000 7546 4007 7538
      3996 7525 3988 7527 3985 7524 3988 7515
      3983 7509 3978 7508 3978 7509 3976 7505

FORECASTER: JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

NJZ021>025-160300-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
1006 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 1000 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VINELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ESTELL MANOR...DOROTHY
AROUND 1015 PM...ENGLISH CREEK...CORBIN CITY AROUND 1030 PM...OCEAN
CITY AND BEESLEYS POINT AROUND 1045 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
EARLIER. BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3937 7448 3936 7451 3934 7453 3936 7449
      3929 7454 3930 7455 3926 7456 3925 7459
      3920 7464 3909 7471 3939 7501 3951 7491
      3939 7446

FORECASTER: JJM