Areal Flood Warning 44, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

223 
WGUS81 KPHI 161211
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
811 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

NJC015-161221-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0044.000000T0000Z-110816T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLOUCESTER NJ-
811 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS IN NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY...

THE RACCOON CREEK AT SWEDESBORO HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. 
THEREFORE, THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3979 7540 3985 7519 3972 7514 3969 7529

$$

GORSE/MEOLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN AS IT BUILDS ACROSS
THE THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ITS WAKE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS INDICATED TO
FORM OVER DELMARVA LATE FRIDAY...PROBABLY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE AT HIGHER
LEVELS IS DECREASING...BUT STILL PLENTY IN THE LOWER LAYERS TODAY.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SFC HEATING AND
THIS ALONG WITH THE UPPER COOL POOL MOVING THRU WILL CREATE P-M
CLOUDY W/ SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY. CHC POPS USED IN
THE FCST BY-IN-LARGE...BUT LOW LIKELY NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING
AS A BATCH OF SHOWERS ROTATES THRU. MAV MOS TEMPS/WINDS GENERALLY
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLR THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND BETTER DOWNWARD MOTION ARRIVES. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS. MAV TEMPS AND WINDS
USED FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
.LONG TERM...
***BRIEF RESPITE WEDNESDAY THEN FURTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
APPEARS ON THE HORIZON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY***

PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING TOP 5 WETTEST AUGUST AT KPHL.

THIS PATTERN LOOKS POTENTIALLY WET AND RATHER THAN RECORD WARMTH
THAT WE WERE LOOKING AT IN JULY...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT NEAR RECORD
AUGUST RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA THIS AUGUST. THIS BASED ON
THE MORE THAN 10 INCHES ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA DURING THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF
THE MONTH...MOST OF IT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS!

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY....MOSTLY SUNNY! ENJOY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH IS MOVING EAST OUT TO SEA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE WITH A MODEST INSTABILITY BURST ON
OUR SOUTHWEST DOORSTEP BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. POPS WERE BLENDED
00Z/16 NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE 21Z/15 SREF 3 HR POPS.  NO THUNDER
EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z THU IN THIS INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE SMALL SHORT WAVES
CROSSING THROUGH A GENERAL TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WEAK
STEERING FLOW NEAR 700 MB COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL /NEAR
850 MB/ SW FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN...IN CONCERT WITH RRQUAD OF THE 250 MB INDICATED
JETLETS IN THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND AND THE LF QUAD OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TO CAROLINAS 250 MB JET SUGGESTS OPPORTUNITY FOR BANDS OF
1-4INCH STORM TOTAL RAINS IN THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD...INCLUSIVE OF
TSTMS IN A PWAT AIRMASS OF AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. MLCAPE IS
DECENT... OVER 1000J AND TT AT TIMES ARE INDICATED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RAINS... JUST NOT SURE WHERE IT ALL
ADDS UP.   POPS I THINK WILL HAVE TO RAISED BEYOND WHAT IS POSTED IN
THIS 330 AM FCST.

THIS WEEKEND...SHOULD DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND WARM UP...
NORMAL SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED POPS FAST
ENOUGH SATURDAY? EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND WE ADDED POPS
FOR THIS IN ONLY THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO GET OUR FOOT IN THE DOOR
FOR THE COLD FRONTAL SHOWER RISK?  TIMING UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS AND SELECTED ONLY 1 PERIOD...SORT OF CENTERED
BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF WHEN IT MIGHT RAIN.

IN SUMMARY...A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPS
AFTER WEDNESDAYS MUCH NICER DAY. IT LOOKS SHOWERY FROM TIME TO TIME
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA BY DAWN WITH LOWER VSBYS. MVFR CIGS MAY ARRIVE AROUND
12Z-14Z WITH CLOUDS/PCPN ROTATING SWRD FROM NE PA AND NRN NJ.

MOSTLY VFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME CU MAY DEVELOP CIGS AROUND 4-5K FT AND A CB GROUP WAS
PLACED IN TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER/TSTM. SKIES
BECOME MAINLY CLR THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WIND BECOMING SW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH POSSIBLE
SEABREEZE KACY?

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS ARRIVE.  LIGHT WIND.  POSSIBLE MVFR
SHOWERS KRDG/KABE TOWARD SUNRISE THU.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR CIGS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN CLUSTERS-BANDS OF  SHOWERS/TSTMS....ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  AT NIGHT SOME MVFR FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...PROBABLY VFR. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY LEFTOVER
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2-3 FT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THRU WED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.

WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF ESE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER DELMARVA?   SEAS BELOW 4 FT THROUGHOUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1.55 IN PENNSAUKEN E CAMDEN AREA IN 45 MINUTES ENDING 0145Z THIS
EVENING WITH BRIEF LANE CLOSURES DUE TO EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM
RUNOFF. FLOOD STATEMENTS/WARNINGS ARE POSTED AND NO FURTHER UPDATES
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO 4 AM TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PHL: 10.26 INCHES AS OF 03Z/16 APPEARS TO BE 4TH WETTEST AUGUST AT
PHL DATING BACK TO 1874.

12.10 1911
11.49 1873
10.29 2009

UNOFFICIAL DATA SHOWED A 15.82 IN 1867 AND 12.27 IN 1873 BUT THESE
LATTER TWO AMOUNTS ARE UNOFFICIAL FROM PA HOSPITAL INFORMATION
1825-1873.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O'HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O'HARA
HYDROLOGY...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-170745-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
342 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND
PROMPT HAZARD STATEMENTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-170745-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
342 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.