Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1134 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE DELAWARE COAST WILL WEAKEN TODAY.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD FORM ON ITS COLD FRONT OVER
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION AT 500MB WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS
WHILE THE GFS WAS BETTER THERMALLY AT 850MB. WHILE THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION SIMILARLY, THEY WAY
THEY TREAT THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VARIES AS DOES THE SUBTLE DIRECTIONALITY
DIFFERENCES. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
QPF. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A MODEL COMPROMISE AND STEER AWAY
FROM INCLUDING THE CAN GGEM IN THE MIX AS PER PMDHMD.

OLD BOUNDARIES DON'T FADE EASILY AND WE ARE EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE
CASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS EASED TO NEAR THE
DELAWARE COAST, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS YESTERDAY. THE INVERTED TROF OR SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHWARD SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSRAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

WE MODIFIED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WITH A COMPROMISE APPROACH
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODEL DEW POINTS. WHERE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO
THE 70S, WE CAN GENERATE MODERATE CAPES. THIS IS MORE LIKELY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THAN NORTH AND EAST, BECAUSE THE INVERTED TROF OR
COLD FRONT WAS ALLOWING MARINE AIR INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY ALOFT EXISTS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE TROF. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST
NAM IS TAKING A MID LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY RIGHT UP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND VORTICIY ADVECTION WAS ALREADY
UNDERWAY. THIS ADVECTION WAS COMBINING WITH THE TROF TO GENERATE
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM AROUND TTN NORTHWARD. WE EXPECT TO
SEE MORE BREAK OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

SEVERE WISE THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL BE OVER US AND THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED MARGINALLY GREATER DOWNDRAFT CAPE CAPABILITIES
THAN IT DID FOR SUNDAY. THE BASE OF THE DRY SLOT SEEMS TO RESIDE
ABOVE H7. THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
TROF WOULD BE THE FORECAST WIND FIELD BELOW 700MB WHICH WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER THAN SUNDAY. SO OUR THINKING FWIW IS THAT WIND GUSTS
MOST LIKELY TO MAX AROUND 35 MPH WHERE SURFACE INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP. A JET STREAK ALOFT WILL ASSIST OUR PCPN CHANCES. AS FAR
AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOES, THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK TO LOWER OUR
PWATS TODAY AND THINKING IS THIS SHOULD LIMIT EVENT TOTALS TO AN
INCH OR LESS MOST PLACES. FFG AND FFH GUIDANCE THRU 00Z WAS STILL
FAIRLY HIGH (1.5"/HR AT LOWEST). SO WHILE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
INCREASE OUR VULNERABILITY DOWN THE ROAD, THE GAGED STREAMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT TODAY ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE
SPOTS.

THE GFS VERIFIED BETTER AT 850MB, AND WE LEANED OUR MAX TEMPS
TOWARD IT IN THE WARMER AIR. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE TROF, THE MET
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONE ONLY HAS TO LOOK TO THE TRAIN OF CONVECTION SLIDING TO THE EAST
TODAY TO SEE WHAT OUR FATE WILL BE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE
500MB VORTEX CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE CAROLINAS, THE FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO
OUR CWA.

SO A TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY CONVECTIVE TO A HYBRID STRATIFORM RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSRAS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TONIGHT. THE FIRST SHOTS
SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE DAY BREAK ON TUESDAY AND HIGHEST POPS WERE
CARRIED TOWARD MORNING. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAIN WOULD BE
THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LARGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS WE FIND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC CONTRIBUTIONS COUPLED WITH MORE JET STREAKS
AND MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE LLJ AND
THE LOW LEVEL THETA E RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS AXIS OF MAXING
PRECIPITATION FAVORS OUR ENTIRE CWA ON TUESDAY DAY, BUT THEN DRIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH AND LINGERS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO A SECONDARY MAX ALONG 40N, BUT
THERE IS GREATER CONSENSUS OF A LARGER PCPN MAX BETWEEN NORTHERN
NJ AND LONG ISLAND. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL FOR OUR AREA IF NOT
ENTIRELY WELCOMED BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW, LONGER FORECAST
DURATION OF FORCING MECHANISMS AND AN INCREASING LLJ. SO WE SLOWLY
EDGED THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CAPABILITY IS THE WILD
CARD AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. ALL
THE MODELING IS FORECASTING ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CAPABILITIES AND
FOR NOW THIS WAS INCLUDED THROUGHOUT OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE BELIEVE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TUE AND WED WHERE WE WENT BLO GFS MOS GUIDANCE BUT FOLLOWED A
CLOSER STAT GUID COMPROMISE FOR MON AND TUE NGT MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH, AT LEAST, FRIDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THERE. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH OUR AREA FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO MOVE IN AND LOWER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE
LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

 THE CONVECTION OF SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WANED EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE MOVED
NORTH. HOWEVER...COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BLEEDING IN FROM THE
OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY...AS
WELL AS FROM THE PRIOR HEAVY RAIN...WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
TRANSLATING INTO IFR/LOW IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE LOW
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE STRONG MID-MAY
INSOLATION DISSIPATES THE STRATUS AND FOG...AND CONDITIONS EVOLVE TO
MARGINAL VFR OR VFR BY MID MORNING OR SO.

TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...IS FORECAST TO
FEATURE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY AND
FORCING...SO ONLY A SHOWER VICINITY MENTION AND CB ADDITION TO THE
CUMULUS CLOUDS WAS USED TO INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...OR WHERE A
DIRECTION IS SHOWN EAST OR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WERE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THE LOW
INITIALLY OVER DELAWARE SINKS A BIT TO THE SOUTH. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME NORTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
A STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FOR THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIOD.
WITH ADDED MOISTURE TRANSLATING INTO NUMEROUS OR CATEGORICAL SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY IFR TO BRIEFLY MARGINAL VFR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER. LOW CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SANDWICHING A RETURN TO LOWER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELLS REFUSED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WAS TAKEN DOWN
FOR THIS MORNING. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY
BE A BIT EARLY...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING
FLOW BY EARLY TONIGHT...SO THE ADVISORY WILL START AT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND RUN RIGHT THROUGH 10Z WEDNESDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INTENSIFY QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEYOND THE FOURTH PERIOD...BUT CAN BE EXTENDED
BY LATER SHIFTS AS NEEDED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED
ON AT LEAST LOWER DELAWARE BAY...BUT THIS MAY BE FOR OUR FOURTH
PERIOD AND BEYOND...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE IS RISING ABOUT THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE TOOK A CONVECTIVE SHOT THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS IN NORTHERN NJ AND PARTS OF BERKS
COUNTY PA AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY DE. THE MMEFS GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING SOME MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING POTENTIAL (SREF FAMILY) ON
GAGED SITES IN NORTHERN NJ. FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AND AREAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL GIVE STREAMS A
CHANCE TO RECEDE SOMEWHAT AND US ONE MORE SOUNDING RUN AND FURTHER
MARFC COLLABORATION TO DELINEATE THE FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SREF
AND GEFS PLUMES MEANS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE
CAPABILITIES LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. PLEASE LOOK FOR
UPDATES LATER TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON HAVE BEEN
ACTING TO KEEP TIDAL DEPARTURES ELEVATED. SEVERAL SPOTS REACHED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING...AND A SIMILAR SITUATION
IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WORSENING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

SO...THE GENERIC COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS WHICH
SPECIFIED THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH
TIDES...WILL BE LEFT INTACT FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AND ADJACENT BACK
BAYS...AS WELL AS FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER. THIS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 07Z TUESDAY FOR NOW...WHICH
WILL COVER THE EVENING HIGH TIDE FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AND THEN UP
INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AN ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM NEAR CAMBRIDGE AND BETWEEN 6
AND 8 AM NEAR TOLCHESTER BEACH. THE ADVISORY WAS CONSTRUCTED TO END
AT 10 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EVEN LATER HIGH TIDE IN THE NECK OF THE
BAY.

AS MENTIONED...THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD
FEATURE THE WORST OF WHATEVER TIDAL FLOODING OCCURS. MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH AVIATION STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE IS NOT HELPFUL. BUT...WITH A FULL MOON...A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND WITH SPRING TIDES
OCCURRING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS LOOKING MORE POSSIBLE AND A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
BUT...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...IT WAS
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW AS THIS IS THE FOURTH TIME
PERIOD. ITS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD EVEN START IN THE THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW NOW. THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
ISSUANCE...AND FOR NOW IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     016>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI/DELISI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
HYDROLOGY...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-062-067>069-172100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ060-061-172100-
BERKS-LEHIGH-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY ULTIMATELY BECOME
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ020-022>027-172100-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO
PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY ULTIMATELY BECOME
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ012-017>019-PAZ070-071-172100-
NEW CASTLE-MIDDLESEX-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-NJZ016-021-172100-
KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO
PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY ULTIMATELY BECOME
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-172100-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY ULTIMATELY BECOME
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ013-014-172100-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO
PRODUCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-172100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-172100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-172100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
443 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             FOGELSVILLE             40.58N  75.63W
05/15/2011  M0.88 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREDON TWP              41.03N  74.83W
05/15/2011                   SUSSEX             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN

0900 PM     HAIL             VILLANOVA               40.04N  75.35W
05/15/2011  M0.50 INCH       DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLUMSTEAD TWP           40.38N  75.12W
05/15/2011                   BUCKS              PA   NEWSPAPER

            TREES AND SOME WIRES DOWN

1122 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIPERSVILLE             40.43N  75.14W
05/15/2011                   BUCKS              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1100127 PHI1100128 PHI1100129 PHI1100131 PHI1100130

KEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
233 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

NJZ019-027-161930-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
233 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURLINGTON COUNTY...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR PRESIDENTIAL LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SHAMONG...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THESE STORMS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4012 7459 3989 7446 3966 7458 3976 7476

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
304 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

PAZ067-162000-
CHESTER PA-
304 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESTER COUNTY...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF WEST CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR SOUTH COATESVILLE AROUND 315
PM...COATESVILLE...MODENA AROUND 320 PM...THORNDALE AROUND 340 PM AND
DOWNINGTOWN AROUND 355 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4017 7584 4010 7548 3985 7589 3997 7599

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

DEZ003-162030-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-
335 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SUSSEX COUNTY...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MILTON AROUND 405 PM...ELLENDALE
AROUND 415 PM AND SLAUGHTER BEACH AROUND 430 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3861 7541 3891 7545 3892 7530 3889 7525
      3886 7523 3879 7515 3859 7518

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

DEZ002-003-162145-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-
448 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF KENT AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ELLENDALE AROUND 500 PM...
FARMINGTON AROUND 510 PM...MILFORD...HOUSTON...HARRINGTON AROUND 520
PM...FREDERICA...FELTON...BIG STONE BEACH AROUND 535 PM...RIVERVIEW
AND BOWERS AROUND 540 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3862 7558 3908 7560 3908 7539 3903 7533
      3899 7531 3862 7535

FORECASTER: GORSE