Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT EAST SLIGHTLY
AND THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD FORM ON ITS COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT INITIATED THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH. BEFORE THEN...THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OTHER FOCI FOR THE INSTABILITY. AT THIS
POINT...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES START TO WANE...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS FROM LINE SEGMENTS; OTHERWISE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. UPDATE USED AN
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT BY ABOUT 30 MILES OF THE LATEST HRRR TO COVER
THE THREAT OF TSRAS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER TH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS IS FOLLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS PRETTY MUCH
RIGHT ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MARYLAND
WILL IMPACT PART OF THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 0130 UTC. AGAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY
MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL IF THIS ACTIVITY
HOLDS TOGETHER.

OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN...PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP...AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST. THE FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...WHERE MORE RAIN FEEL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND THEN
DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE AS THE CUTOFF LOW DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
EAST (ALTHOUGH IT WILL EVOLVE). IT THEREFORE IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
DO MUCH ABOUT THE REPETITIVE NATURE OF THE FORECAST. WE CAN GO
WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION COULD BE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE SOUTHEAST IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM IT.

UNFORTUNATELY, AFTER THAT THE TEMPORARY EVOLUTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO A DUAL-CENTERED SYSTEM THAT CAUSES THE SURFACE LOW
TO REDEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE A DEEP FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIKELY MID LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX TO WORK WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE.
THE UPPER JET NEVER REALLY GETS TOO FAR AWAY, EITHER. FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WE ARE CARRYING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS AND WE HAVE MODERATE QPF VALUES. THESE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT FFG AND FFH VALUES WILL
NOT BE OUT OF REACH BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY
WET PERIOD. THE THREAT PRESENTLY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS ONE MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FAVOR THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH, AT LEAST, FRIDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THERE. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH OUR AREA FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO MOVE IN AND LOWER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE
LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AND SOME
MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN BACK TO IFR SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING.
THE EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...SO THE MET/MAV MOS
TRENDS WERE FOLLOWED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEYS THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A HIGH OVER THE OCEAN
CONTINUES. THE SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED OUT ANOTHER
12 HOURS AND NOW GOES UNTIL 800 AM TUESDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PROBABLY JUSTIFY FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME WITH UPCOMING FCSTS.
A SCA FLAG FOR THE DEL BAY MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON HAVE BEEN
ACTING TO KEEP TIDAL DEPARTURES ELEVATED. SEVERAL SPOTS REACHED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS LAST NIGHT...AND THIS SITUATION WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR...OR EVEN WORSEN SLIGHTLY...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TIME FRAME MAY FEATURE THE WORST OF WHATEVER
TIDAL FLOODING OCCURS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUED NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR COASTAL
AREAS INCLUDING THE OCEAN FRONT...THE ADJACENT BACK BAYS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY...UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER...AS
WELL AS UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS TIME
PROGRESSES. THE TIMES AROUND HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES WHICH WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TIMES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     016>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI/HAYES
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...O'HARA
MARINE...O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O'O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-062-162000-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-
NORTHAMPTON-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012>014-020-026-162000-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021>025-027-PAZ070-071-
162000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

PAZ060-061-067>069-162000-
BERKS-LEHIGH-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

ANZ450-451-162000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ452>455-162000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-162000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ001-008-160400-
MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-
1056 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MORRIS AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES...

AT 1053 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEWTON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
VERNON VALLEY AROUND 1115 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4118 7437 4108 7449 4104 7449
      4105 7447 4105 7445 4104 7444 4098 7448
      4103 7476 4132 7463 4132 7461

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1110 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ009-010-012-015-017>019-PAZ068-069-071-160415-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONTGOMERY PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SOMERSET NJ-
1110 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONTGOMERY...
PHILADELPHIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 1105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF CAMDEN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF
CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
JENKINTOWN...OAKLYN AROUND 1115 PM...NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA...
BENSALEM AROUND 1130 PM...JACKSONVILLE...YARDLEY AROUND 1145 PM...
MORRISVILLE...YARDVILLE-GROVEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT...PRINCETON AND
PRINCETON NORTH AROUND 1215 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4052 7474 4039 7462 4030 7453 3971 7505
      3980 7514 3998 7527

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1131 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ007>009-PAZ055-061-062-069-160430-
BUCKS PA-HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-
WARREN NJ-
1131 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUCKS...HUNTERDON...LEHIGH...
MONROE...MORRIS...NORTHAMPTON AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 1127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR RIEGELSVILLE AROUND 1130 PM...
ALPHA...EASTON AROUND 1145 PM...PHILLIPSBURG...BLOOMSBURY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ROXBURG...BELVIDERE AROUND 1215 AM...HOPE AND COLUMBIA
AROUND 1230 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4102 7512 4089 7479 4046 7519 4055 7542

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1143 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ017>022-027-160445-
ATLANTIC NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
1143 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...
BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER AND OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 1139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINELAND...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
HAMMONTON...ELWOOD-MAGNOLIA AROUND MIDNIGHT...ATSION...BATSTO AROUND
1215 AM...WHARTON STATE FOREST...SHAMONG AROUND 1230 AM...CHATSWORTH
AND PRESIDENTIAL LAKES AROUND 1245 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4001 7460 3984 7433 3941 7483 3956 7506

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1158 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ008>010-012-013-015-019-PAZ069-160500-
BUCKS PA-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MORRIS NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1158 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...HUNTERDON...
MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...MORRIS AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 1156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TRENTON TO 4 MILES EAST OF TRENTON TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
HOPEWELL...SKILLMAN AROUND 1215 AM...MILLSTONE...BELLE MEAD AROUND
1230 AM...CLIFFWOOD BEACH...SOUTH PLAINFIELD AROUND 1245 AM...FORDS
AND PERTH AMBOY AROUND 100 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4039 7405 4002 7471 4018 7477 4039 7502
      4074 7437 4067 7445 4065 7445 4066 7440
      4059 7444 4060 7421 4057 7420 4055 7423
      4047 7427 4044 7420 4046 7412 4043 7406

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ062-160515-
HUNTERDON NJ-MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
1210 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUNTERDON...MORRIS...
NORTHAMPTON...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 1209 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EASTON TO 18 MILES EAST OF EASTON TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SOMERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR WASHINGTON...OXFORD AROUND 1215 AM...GREAT MEADOWS...GREAT
MEADOWS-VIENNA AROUND 1230 AM...SUCCASUNNA...STANHOPE AROUND 1245
AM...NEWTON...WHARTON AROUND 100 AM...LAKE TELEMARK AND OGDENSBURG
AROUND 115 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4111 7447 4111 7446 4108 7449 4104 7449
      4105 7444 4102 7442 4101 7437 4096 7433
      4051 7481 4067 7495 4074 7517 4119 7469

HAYES