Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT EAST SLIGHTLY
AND THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ON MONDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD FORM ON ITS COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT INITIATED THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH. BEFORE THEN...THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OTHER FOCI FOR THE INSTABILITY. AT THIS
POINT...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES START TO WANE...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS FROM LINE SEGMENTS; OTHERWISE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MARYLAND
WILL IMPACT PART OF THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 0130 UTC. AGAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY
MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL IF THIS ACTIVITY
HOLDS TOGETHER.

OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN...PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP...AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST. THE FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...WHERE MORE RAIN FEEL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND THEN
DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
MOVE VERY LITTLE AS THE CUTOFF LOW DOES NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
EAST (ALTHOUGH IT WILL EVOLVE). IT THEREFORE IS NOT POSSIBLE TO
DO MUCH ABOUT THE REPETITIVE NATURE OF THE FORECAST. WE CAN GO
WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION COULD BE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE SOUTHEAST IS
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM IT.

UNFORTUNATELY, AFTER THAT THE TEMPORARY EVOLUTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW INTO A DUAL-CENTERED SYSTEM THAT CAUSES THE SURFACE LOW
TO REDEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE A DEEP FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIKELY MID LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX TO WORK WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE.
THE UPPER JET NEVER REALLY GETS TOO FAR AWAY, EITHER. FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WE ARE CARRYING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS AND WE HAVE MODERATE QPF VALUES. THESE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT FFG AND FFH VALUES WILL
NOT BE OUT OF REACH BY THE TIME WE GET INTO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY
WET PERIOD. THE THREAT PRESENTLY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS ONE MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FAVOR THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH, AT LEAST, FRIDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THERE. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH OUR AREA FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO MOVE IN AND LOWER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE
LOWER AND MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AND SOME
MID-LEVEL DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT KTTN AND KABE
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY. A PERIOD OF MVFR OR TEMPORARY VFR IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING..THEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN AND A RETURN BACK TO IFR SHOULD
OCCUR OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...SO THE MET/MAV
MOS TRENDS WERE FOLLOWED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEYS THIS
EVENING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CEILING AND
VISIBILITY VALUES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A HIGH OVER THE OCEAN
CONTINUES. THE SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED OUT ANOTHER
12 HOURS AND NOW GOES UNTIL 800 AM TUESDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PROBABLY JUSTIFY FURTHER EXTENSION IN TIME WITH UPCOMING FCSTS.
A SCA FLAG FOR THE DEL BAY MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON HAVE BEEN
ACTING TO KEEP TIDAL DEPARTURES ELEVATED. SEVERAL SPOTS REACHED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS LAST NIGHT...AND THIS SITUATION WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR...OR EVEN WORSEN SLIGHTLY...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TIME FRAME MAY FEATURE THE WORST OF WHATEVER
TIDAL FLOODING OCCURS. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUED NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR COASTAL
AREAS INCLUDING THE OCEAN FRONT...THE ADJACENT BACK BAYS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY...UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER...AS
WELL AS UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH
00Z TUESDAY FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS TIME
PROGRESSES. THE TIMES AROUND HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES WHICH WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TIMES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     016>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...O'HARA
MARINE...O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-062-162000-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-
NORTHAMPTON-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012>014-020-026-162000-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-021>025-027-PAZ070-071-
162000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

PAZ060-061-067>069-162000-
BERKS-LEHIGH-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING.

ANZ450-451-162000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ452>455-162000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-162000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GENERATE STRONG
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016-017-PAZ067-070-152345-
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT MD-NEW CASTLE DE-
SALEM NJ-
640 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CECIL...CHESTER...DELAWARE...
GLOUCESTER...KENT...NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF MIDDLETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BOHEMIAS MILLS...WARWICK AROUND
645 PM...BOHEMIAS MILLS...CHESAPEAKE CITY AROUND 700 PM...MOUNT
PLEASANT...BRANTWOOD AROUND 715 PM...BEAR...SAINT GEORGES AROUND 730
PM...NEW CASTLE AND WILMINGTON MANOR AROUND 745 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL AS SMALL
HAIL.

LAT...LON 3996 7561 3979 7521 3953 7553 3957 7553
      3958 7556 3954 7555 3949 7558 3930 7580
      3940 7599

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ001-007-PAZ055-062-152345-
MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
641 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONROE...NORTHAMPTON...SUSSEX
AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HOPE...BLAIRSTOWN AROUND 700
PM...ALLAMUCHY...ALLAMUCHY-PANTHER VALLEY AROUND 715 PM...FIVE
POINTS...NEWTON AROUND 730 PM...CRANDON LAKES AND BRANCHVILLE AROUND
745 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 4113 7452 4091 7475 4090 7478 4087 7481
      4085 7480 4079 7486 4073 7495 4087 7527
      4108 7504 4111 7495 4121 7487 4123 7487
      4128 7482

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
649 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ008>010-015-152345-
HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
649 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUNTERDON...
MERCER...MORRIS AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR FLAGTOWN...
RARITAN AROUND 700 PM...BRIDGEWATER...WHITE HOUSE STATION AROUND 715
PM...PEAPACK AND GLADSTONE...FAR HILLS AROUND 730 PM...CHESTER AND
SUCCASUNNA AROUND 745 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL AS SMALL
HAIL.

LAT...LON 4058 7450 4056 7453 4053 7451 4043 7453
      4041 7459 4035 7463 4039 7485 4089 7477
      4091 7475 4091 7466 4096 7464 4108 7450
      4104 7449 4105 7444 4101 7439

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ067>071-160030-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...
BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...CECIL...CHESTER...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...
MONTGOMERY...NEW CASTLE...PHILADELPHIA AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES NORTH OF WILMINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR LIMA...UPPER
PROVIDENCE TOWNSHIP AROUND 745 PM...TROUT LAKE...NEWTOWN SQUARE
AROUND 800 PM...CONSHOHOCKEN...PLYMOUTH MEETING AROUND 815
PM...AMBLER AND SPRING HOUSE AROUND 830 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...AS WELL AS SMALL
HAIL.

LAT...LON 4034 7528 4012 7492 3952 7552 3954 7554
      3956 7553 3958 7554 3958 7556 3956 7555
      3955 7557 3970 7581

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

PAZ060-061-160030-
BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BERKS AND LEHIGH COUNTIES...

AT 733 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF READING...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MOHNTON AROUND 745 PM...
WERNERSVILLE...WOMELSDORF AROUND 800 PM...BERNVILLE...LEESPORT AROUND
815 PM...CENTERPORT AND SHOEMAKERSVILLE AROUND 830 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 4054 7621 4054 7618 4056 7615 4058 7609
      4060 7605 4059 7603 4064 7601 4067 7595
      4062 7579 4019 7597 4036 7621 4036 7624
      4039 7628

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

NJZ001-008-160045-
MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-
741 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MORRIS AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 737 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR FRANKLIN...HAMBURG AROUND 800 PM...SUSSEX
AROUND 815 PM...HIGHLAND LAKE AND VERNON VALLEY AROUND 830 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL AS SMALL
HAIL.

LAT...LON 4120 7437 4118 7437 4109 7449 4105 7449
      4104 7450 4092 7473 4107 7488 4129 7456

HAYES