Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY SUNNY WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE AMPED UP WORDING OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND HAZARDS THIS
EVENING DUE TO TRENDS IN RECENT RADAR DATA. PER HRRR MODEL OUTPUT,
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DUE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS, EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES, HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING DUE
TO THUNDERSTORM RAINS. HOWEVER, MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS LATE
TONIGHT AND HIGHS SATURDAY AS THESE SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO BLEND
OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO A DRY
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH RESPECT
TO FROPA SUNDAY.  SREF/GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL HAVE QPF OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  COLD FRONT WILL REACH EAST
CENTRAL OHIO BY MID MORNING SUNDAY THEN EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  UPPED POPS TO LKLY AREAWIDE SUN TO REFLECT GREATER
CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH SBCAPES UNDER 0.5 KJKG-1...THUS NOT KEEN ON
ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT.  THIS CONCURS WITH THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH HAS CWA UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.

THE FRONT EXITS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
TO BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL INDIANA.  H8 TEMPS FALL NEARLY 6C BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO EXPECT COOLER WEATHER AS WE COMMENCE A NEW WORK
WEEK.  THE COMBINATION OF NW WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OFF THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY WILL GENERATE MCLDY CONDITIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR PSNNY WEATHER.

PREFER MET MOS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:
- GRADUAL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS
- UNCERTAINTY IN THE TROPICS /NO IMPACTS HERE/

LONG RANGE FORECAST FOLLOWED THE ECMWF WHICH ILLUSTRATES A TROF OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MOST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL YIELD QUICK MOVING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION...WHILE
KEEPING THE HEAT AT BAY.  TIMING OF ENERGY AROUND A MID LEVEL
CYCLONE THIS FAR OUT IS CHALLENGING...SO CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE
POPS IN THE EXTENDED.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AT THIS POINT
APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY.

AS WE LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK /DAY 8-10/...ECMWF AND GFS ARE
HINTING AT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE US COASTLINE.  PLEASE
REFERENCE STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AS BUFKIT SHOWS HEALTHY SURFACE INVERSION SETTING UP.
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EVAPORATION OF RECENT
RAIN WILL AID FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 14Z SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MDZ001-OHZ041-049-050-058-059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-202030-
GARRETT-COLUMBIANA-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-
MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. ALSO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039-040-048-057-202030-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-MUSKINGUM-
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

OHZ041-PAZ020-192030-
BEAVER PA-COLUMBIANA OH-
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL COLUMBIANA AND
NORTHERN BEAVER COUNTIES...

AT 356 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
EAST PALESTINE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.  EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EAST PALESTINE...     BEAVER CREEK STATE PARK...
  DARLINGTON...         FOMBELL...            BLACKHAWK...
  BEAVER FALLS...       BEAVER...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4085 8052 4084 8017 4066 8028 4072 8071
      4086 8058 4086 8052

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

PAZ021-029-192030-
ALLEGHENY PA-WASHINGTON PA-
403 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALLEGHENY AND EAST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CARNEGIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.  EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MCKEES ROCKS...       CARNEGIE...           BRIDGEVILLE...
  UPPER SAINT CLAIR...  SOUTH SIDE PITTSBURGH...
  PITTSBURGH...         MOUNT WASHINGTON...   MOUNT LEBANON...
  MCMURRAY...           BRENTWOOD...          BETHEL PARK...
  BALDWIN...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4041 7992 4022 8000 4032 8019 4050 8012

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