Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN PORTIONS OF OHIO WHERE SCT
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION
WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT EAST ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS. AREAS OF MVFR AND PATCHY IFR FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
13Z.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD ENSUE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
510 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-200915-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
510 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
654 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

OHZ041-PAZ020-191200-
BEAVER PA-COLUMBIANA OH-
654 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL...

HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH COLUMBIANA COUNTY TOWARD
BEAVER COUNTY...

AT 648 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LISBON...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MILLPORT...           GUILFORD LAKE STATE PARK...
  LISBON...             BEAVER CREEK STATE PARK...
  EAST PALESTINE...

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4085 8046 4065 8046 4066 8090 4084 8091

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

OHZ041-PAZ013-014-020-191215-
BEAVER PA-BUTLER PA-COLUMBIANA OH-LAWRENCE PA-
737 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAWRENCE...NORTHEASTERN
BEAVER...NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA AND WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 735 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED BESSEMER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BESSEMER...           NEW CASTLE...         ELLWOOD CITY...
  MCCONNELLS MILL...    ZELIENOPLE...         MORAINE STATE PARK...
  FOMBELL...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4096 7999 4068 8018 4085 8044 4085 8075
      4091 8065 4091 8053 4102 8053 4108 8048