Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE A
CROSSING OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WILL BE FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE DUE TO JET
STREAK/INCREASED SHEAR AS WELL AS INSTABILITY AXIS.

INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVVR VA LTR THIS EVENING, AND, AT THE
SAME TIME, THE NEXT IN SERIES WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO. THIS SECOND
WAVE WILL HELP TO PULL THE SFC FRONT INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE PRESENTING A SCENARIO WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY EXITS EAST
OF MY AREA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT DOES LITTLE TO
BREAK THE HUMIDITY. SFC TDS REMAIN NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP THINGS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AS THERE IS A LACK OF UL SUPPORT TO GET
ANY POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY GOING. WILL KEEP IN THE RISK FOR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING. I DON'T THINK THAT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY CAN BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, WITH
NW ALOFT AND WEAK COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT CAN BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LARGE SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY,
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SLOWLY DECREASING THE HUMIDITY.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TUESDAY, WITH A BREAK EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NAEFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE MS VALLEY RIDGE RETROGRESSION
TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WEEKS END, LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVR THE
UPR OHIO VALLEY. MID WEEK CDFNT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SAG FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PERSIST WITH A DRY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, DIURNALLY
SUPPORTED CHC PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OFF THE LAKES WITH WARM FRONT AS POTENTIAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM. POP REDUCTION AND CONTINUED WARMTH IS
INDICATED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EASTWARD.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE AT, OR ABOVE NORMAL AND
WERE FORECAST USING PERSISTENCE AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF TSRA WL MOVE ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS EVE AND TAF WL
FEATURE RESTRICTIONS WITH TSRA MENTION AT ALL PORTS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS COMPLEX.

DEPENDING ON ACTUAL RAINFALL PATTERN, AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG SEEM
LIKELY POST FRONTAL LATE OVERNIGHT TNGT/TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THE
MORNING FOG BURNOFF...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTN
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
HOVER ACROSS CENTRAL WV WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE PERHAPS
CLIPPING FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE SOUTH. A FEW SHWRS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SOUTH OF PIT WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR VFR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-122100-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS....BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ074-122100-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-122100-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-122100-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
452 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHEELING                40.06N  80.72W
07/11/2011                   OHIO               WV   POP

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100934

RG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODSFIELD              39.76N  81.12W
07/11/2011                   MONROE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1100936

RG

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