Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Paducah, KY

April 15, 20115 counties in Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2011, 5:06 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 24 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2011, 5:06 PM CDT (22:06 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2011, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Ballard County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, McCracken County, KY

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 15, 5:15 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	2 S Lowes, KY	LATE REPORT. NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
Apr 15, 5:19 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	Melber, KY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 15, 12:47 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1893 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

518 
WUUS53 KPAH 152206
SVRPAH
KYC007-039-083-105-145-152230-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0045.110415T2206Z-110415T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
506 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  EASTERN CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  NORTHERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18
  MILES SOUTH OF LOVELACEVILLE..AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  LOVELACEVILLE...
  LONE OAK...
  WEST PADUCAH...
  PADUCAH...
  REIDLAND...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE A TORNADO QUICKLY. BE PREPARED
TO IMPLEMENT YOUR TORNADO PLAN OF ACTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 8874 3702 8850 3688 8849 3663 8881
      3670 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 199DEG 44KT 3676 8884
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 2:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 2:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MANY CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  FIRST ARE THE NEAR TERM
PRECIP CHANCES.  ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN IN FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A TORNADO WATCH.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KEPT
LIKELY POPS EAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CHANCE POPS WEST FOR FOR
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT TO OUR EAST
ANY PRECIP SHOULD JUST BE LINGERING SHOWERS.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...AND IT WILL
LINGER NORTH OF THE PAH FA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WHERE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS THE
QUESTION.  THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND FOR NOW KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DRY...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THE
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA.  INCLUDED HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...THE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE...SO AT THIS TIME CHOSE TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL A CLEARER
PICTURE EMERGES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND TOWARD THE COOLER MAV
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED...OVERALL STAYED WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU AND MVFR CIGS COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEPARTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. KEPT CB/S FOR
CONVECTIVE MENTION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL VEER THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT...PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 3:33 AM CDT, 13 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-160845-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
333 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AND PENNYRILE REGIONS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WITH ROUND TWO
COULD TAKE ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS. HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE ALERT LEVEL WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME THROUGH THE DAY...AND IF UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS CAN LINE UP WITH THE AXIS OF
DESTABILIZATION. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST FROM 40 TO 50
MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY. RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS WEEK HAS GROUND CONDITIONS SATURATED IN SOME AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING TO THE REGION 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS
ONCE AGAIN.

FLOODING IS AGAIN OCCURRING ON MANY AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP IN A
MANNER FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY
IN THE MODEL DATA...IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE
WHERE EXACTLY THE AXIS WILL SET UP. HOWEVER THE EFFECTS SHOULD
BE FELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOTH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MANY AREA RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

JP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 15, 3:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             HENDRICKSON             36.90N 90.47W
04/15/2011  M0.88 INCH       BUTLER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN BUTLER CO. MISSOURI

&&

JAYSONW

Local storm report, Apr 15, 4:38 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             MARBLE HILL             37.30N 89.98W
04/15/2011  M0.75 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMA REPORTS VERY STRONG HAIL STORM NEARLY COVERING THE
            GROUND.

&&

JAYSONW

Local storm report, Apr 15, 4:51 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
451 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             SCOTT CITY              37.22N 89.53W
04/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RST

Local storm report, Apr 15, 4:53 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             SCOTT CITY              37.22N 89.53W
04/15/2011  M1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAYSONW

Local storm report, Apr 15, 4:54 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     E CHAFFEE               37.18N 89.66W
04/15/2011                   SCOTT              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHAFFEE PD REPORTS A ROTATING FUNNEL CLOUD EAST OF
            CHAFFEE MISSOURI

&&

JAYSONW

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:04 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
504 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             3 E CLINTON             36.67N 88.94W
04/15/2011  E0.75 INCH       HICKMAN            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

RST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 4:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, McCracken	32 min
Apr 15, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	McCracken	13 min
Apr 15, 5:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Graves, Hickman	26 min
Apr 15, 5:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Ballard	3 hr
Apr 15, 5:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, McCracken	27 min
Apr 15, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, Graves, Livingston, McCracken	21 min
Apr 15, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Livingston, McCracken, Marshall	30 min
Apr 15, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Hickman, Marshall	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.