Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
OUR LATEST BAND OF HEAVY RAINS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE
CAUSED THE RIVERS TO CLIMB IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN SOME CASES LIKE THE
PATOKA AT PRINCETON INDIANA...AND THE BIG MUDDY AT MURPHYSBORO NEW
RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET. ALSO HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA IN A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN WARNING MODE FOR AWHILE NOW...THE DAY SHIFT
APPARENTLY KILLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SO WILL NOT RE-ISSUE. THE
00Z MODELS ALL SHIFT THE 850MB FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY...WHICH SHOULD REALLY CONFINE THE THUNDER AND
INTENSE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA
TODAY...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THERE WILL STILL BE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS...JUST NOT ADDING UP AS QUICKLY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL USING HPC
QPF GIVES 2-2.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY...TAPERING TO
AROUND .75 NEAR KMVN IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SEE A SIGNFICANT BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NEXT ROUND
APPEARS TO ALREADY BE GETTING GOING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. WOULD
EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SURGING BACK INTO AT
LEAST SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY NOON...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY CONTINUOUS RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH FINALLY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE 00Z MODELS DO NOT WRAP UP THE LOW AS
MUCH AS LAST NIGHTS RUNS...SO THEY ACTUALLY HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE KPAH/KOWB TAF SITES...PROLONGED MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DOMINATED THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...KPAH/KOWB COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.
FURTHER NORTH...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE NEAR KCGI/KEVV TAF
SITES...AS STABILIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALLOWS FOR THERMAL
STRATIFICATION FOR ENHANCED CEILING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 925-850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOPE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO FOCUS ON THE MEAN VISIBILITY LEVEL
AND BEST TIME PERIOD FOR CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
MAIN PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF A STORM
WERE TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE AREA. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY...AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER
IN WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
ALONG MOST RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY NEW FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            CARMI                   38.09N 88.17W
05/01/2011                   WHITE              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN CARMI REPORT THAT ROUTE ONE HAS
            BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1059 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE CAPE GIRARDEAU     37.32N 89.54W
05/01/2011  M3.11 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE AROUND 4 PM CDT TODAY. TWO INCHES OF
            THE TOTAL RAINFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE 930 PM CDT.

&&

K.SMITH