Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Paducah, KY

579 
WGUS73 KPAH 021046
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
546 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

INC147-KYC033-035-047-055-059-101-107-143-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-021315-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110502T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SPENCER IN-HENDERSON KY-DAVIESS KY-UNION KY-MCLEAN KY-WEBSTER KY-
HOPKINS KY-CRITTENDEN KY-MUHLENBERG KY-CALDWELL KY-LYON KY-
CHRISTIAN KY-TODD KY-MARSHALL KY-TRIGG KY-CALLOWAY KY-
546 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR
SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND HOPKINS...WEBSTER... 
MCLEAN...SOUTHERN UNION...DAVIESS...SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
TODD...CHRISTIAN...MUHLENBERG...CALLOWAY...TRIGG...MARSHALL...
LYON...CALDWELL AND CRITTENDEN COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 542 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 
LATE SUNDAY EVENING. HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ONE 
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH 815 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

LAT...LON 3793 8698 3780 8682 3767 8683 3748 8711
      3722 8690 3709 8690 3706 8706 3666 8706
      3667 8806 3649 8806 3649 8849 3703 8849
      3707 8834 3700 8823 3716 8819 3742 8835
      3787 8727 3820 8701 3820 8679 3801 8677

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
941 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR NEAR TERM CHANGES.

&&

A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR
OUR AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WILL BE PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND 24. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA WILL BE IN ZONE OF
ENHANCED SLANTWISE AND DIRECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND 925MB/850 MB FRONTAL SLOPE.

WE HAVE RECIEVED REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ALREADY THIS
EVENING WITH THE RAINFALL THAT FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO
OBVIOUSLY THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL IS ONLY GOING TO
MAKE THINGS WORSE UNFORTUNATELY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUSLY ISSUED 234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE POPS AND QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT BISECTING OUR CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING WILL
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAFFLE SLIGHTLY BACK AND FORTH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL EXACERBATE THE ONGOING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING.

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CREATING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THAT WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART LOADED HPC QPF INTO THE GRIDS WHICH YIELDED
STORM PRECIP TOTALS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES NEAR MOUNT VERNON
ILLINOIS TO AROUND 5.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PURCHASE AND LAKES
AREAS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EAST OF THE REGION...SO PRECIP/POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR THU MRNG ON...THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
HIGH SFC PRESSURE...WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW THAT PERIODIC NRN STREAM MID LEVEL
SHRTWVS AND THEIR SFC REFLECTIONS WILL IMPINGE ON THE SFC HIGH/MID
LEVEL RIDGE. THE GULF WILL NOT NECESSARILY OPEN FOR A MOISTURE
SOURCE...SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIMITED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ON
SUN /DAY 7/ WHERE A LITTLE BETTER FETCH IS INDICATED...AND BETTER
INSTABILITY. WE TRIED TO STICK MAINLY TO GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
PATTERNS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD STAY AROUND
NORMAL MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE KPAH/KOWB TAF SITES...PROLONGED MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DOMINATED THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...KPAH/KOWB COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z MONDAY. FURTHER
NORTH...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE NEAR KCGI/KEVV TAF SITES...AS
STABILIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALLOWS FOR THERMAL STRATIFICATION
FOR ENHANCED CEILING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 925-850
MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOPE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AN
ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO FOCUS ON THE MEAN VISIBILITY LEVEL AND BEST
TIME PERIOD FOR CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SMITH/WIELGOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
MAIN PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF A STORM
WERE TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL.

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE AREA. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WAVES OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY...AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER
IN WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
ALONG MOST RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY NEW FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            CARMI                   38.09N 88.17W
05/01/2011                   WHITE              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN CARMI REPORT THAT ROUTE ONE HAS
            BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1059 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE CAPE GIRARDEAU     37.32N 89.54W
05/01/2011  M3.11 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE AROUND 4 PM CDT TODAY. TWO INCHES OF
            THE TOTAL RAINFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE 930 PM CDT.

&&

K.SMITH