Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE SINGLE MODULATION TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IS IN NORTHERN
OKALHOMA TODAY TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN A ZONE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SMALL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING IN ISOLATED FASHION NORTH OF I-40 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE LOWER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WHILE IT MOVES NORTH, BUT FURTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
KANSAS MAY KEEP IT NEAR NORTHERN OKALHOMA TOMORROW AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE HIGHER WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS EFFECTIVE MONDAY
IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEYOND MONDAY, A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN THERE. AREAS IN THE SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE
HEAT WILL STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78 108  78 109 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         80 108  81 111 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83 109  84 111 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           75 105  77 104 /  30  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     79 106  82 107 /  30  20  20  20
DURANT OK         83 107  82 109 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>029-033>038.

TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>085.

&&

08/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER BY EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAS
SLOWLY BEGUN LIFTING NORTH... AND SHOULD LIE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY DAYS... HOT AND
DRY AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE WILL MEAN THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CARRY
THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... WITH A
SMALLER THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 7.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WILL KEEP WILDFIRE POTENTIAL HIGH AS HOT AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THROUGH MONDAY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW AT TIMES REMAINS IN THE AREA.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY
MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE MODERATE WINDS.. ALONG WITH HOT
WEATHER WITH LITTLE RAINFALL... WILL ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

OKZ014-021-062030-
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM AND ROGER MILLS
COUNTIES.

AT 304 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
SWEETWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHEYENNE. ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 PH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3572 9970 3551 9950 3524 9999 3548 10001

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

OKZ014-021-062100-
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM AND ROGER MILLS
COUNTIES.

AT 334 PM CDT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 5
MILES EAST OF DEMPSEY TO 18 MILES WEST OF SWEETWATER WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FIRE STARTING
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3559 10001 3561 10000 3575 9940 3538 9940
      3523 10001