Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Norman, OK

122 
WWUS54 KOUN 240154
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
854 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKC013-019-069-085-095-240200-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-110424T0200Z/
LOVE OK-BRYAN OK-JOHNSTON OK-MARSHALL OK-CARTER OK-
854 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT 
FOR EASTERN CARTER...MARSHALL...SOUTHERN JOHNSTON...BRYAN AND 
NORTHEASTERN LOVE COUNTIES...

AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AN AREA EXTENDING FROM GENE AUTRY... 
TO MADILL TO NEAR DURANT. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 
30 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ACHILLE...ALBANY...ARMSTRONG...
  BENNINGTON...BLUE...BOKCHITO...CALERA...CARTWRIGHT...COLBERT...
  COLEMAN...DICKSON...DURANT...FILLMORE...GENE AUTRY...KEMP...
  KINGSTON...LAKE MURRAY...LAKE TEXOMA...LEBANON...LITTLE CITY...
  MADILL...MANNSVILLE...MCBRIDE...MEAD...MILBURN...NIDA...OAKLAND...
  RAVIA...RUSSETT...SILO...TISHOMINGO...UTICA...WADE...WILLIS AND
  WOODVILLE.

LAT...LON 3386 9602 3376 9628 3369 9633 3378 9642
      3382 9658 3389 9660 3391 9667 3383 9671
      3385 9686 3395 9691 3393 9696 3407 9713
      3438 9711 3434 9704 3434 9641 3411 9640
      3413 9602 3404 9593 3394 9593 3386 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 251DEG 27KT 3394 9624

$$



CJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAFS...SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FROM AROUND KLAW
TO KOKC/KOUN MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AT THESE SITES...AND THE OTHER TERMINALS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TOMORROW. STORMS CURRENTLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TERMINALS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON OUR TAF
SITES. THEIR EVOLUTION/PERSISTENCE WILL AFFECT WHAT HAPPENS
OVERNIGHT...WITH RESPECT TO CHANCES FOR DESPERATE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. ALL MODELS ARE QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AT LEAST LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL KEEP RA/TSRA OUT OF PREDOMINATE WX...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP TOWARD/AFTER SUNRISE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
T-STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOST ANY TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ATOKA...
TO ARDMORE... TO ARCHER CITY TX. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE
MORE TO THE SE AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH DUE TO IT BEING REINFORCED
SOMEWHAT BY T-STORM OUTFLOW. LATER TONIGHT... T-STORM CHANCES
SHOULD IMPROVE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OK IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT
WARM ADVECTION. A WEAK WAVE MAY ALSO BE EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. MEANWHILE... MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE REGION.

T-STORM CHANCES FOR SHWRS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH NM. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND PULL ELEVATED INSTABILITIES
NORTHWARD.

THE BEST INSTABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA ON MONDAY... ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER BACK TO THE
WEST.

A STRONG JET MAX MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US WILL RESULT
IN DEEPENING ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT SYSTEM... A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH COULD PULL
MORE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN
TX. DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN... SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END WED MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITS THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER ISSUES... MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL
RED FLAG DAY AS A DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX DURING THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  70  60  76 /  60  40  60  30
HOBART OK         50  71  57  79 /  40  30  40  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  76  63  88 /  50  40  40  20
GAGE OK           42  67  49  71 /  40  40  50  20
PONCA CITY OK     50  64  52  69 /  50  50  60  40
DURANT OK         67  80  66  80 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
620 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER... TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA... TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 11
PM.  A SECONDARY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 3 TO 8 AM
SUNDAY.

IMPACTS...
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND VEGETATION FROM
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS.

DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH.

ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 11 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM COALGATE... TO ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS LINE AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM HOLDENVILLE... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA... TO
VERNON AND CROWELL TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A STILLWATER TO EL RENO AND LAWTON LINE
MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AM SUNDAY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY APR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM.  GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP ENHANCE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. WHEN THE TROUGH ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE RISK OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FINALLY...A SECOND TROUGH MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ON MONDAY... A DRYLINE OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THE POSSIBILITY OF WILDFIRES WILL BE INCREASED IF THIS
HAPPENS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
BY 5 AM SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKZ050-232315-
LOVE OK-
605 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOVE COUNTY.

AT 602 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO... WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF THACKERVILLE... OR NEAR
GAINESVILLE... MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LOVE COUNTY...
HOWEVER SOUTHBOUND TRAFFIC IN INTERSTATE 35 IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
WANT TO DELAY THEIR TRAVEL INTO NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THIS STORM MOVES
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.

LAT...LON 3376 9720 3392 9703 3388 9697 3386 9699
      3383 9702 3383 9704 3381 9706 3380 9709
      3374 9708 3373 9709 3373 9717

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

TXZ087-088-232330-
KNOX TX-BAYLOR TX-
611 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BAYLOR AND KNOX COUNTIES.

AT 610 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF
GOREE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3339 9968 3366 9943 3349 9905 3339 9919

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKZ046-050-051-232345-
LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-CARTER OK-
636 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHEAST CARTER...EASTERN
LOVE AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.

AT 635 PM CDT...A VERY INTENSE... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM... CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO... WAS LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THACKERVILLE...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONGEST PART
OF THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...
ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN EDGE OF IT COULD COME CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF MARSHALL COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE... A STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

LAT...LON 3378 9720 3386 9717 3407 9717 3413 9695
      3398 9658 3390 9658 3391 9667 3385 9668
      3383 9675 3386 9680 3385 9686 3395 9693
      3393 9698 3386 9699 3380 9709 3374 9708
      3372 9713

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKZ050-240015-
LOVE OK-
652 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOVE COUNTY.

AT 653 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BURNEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3380 9722 3383 9721 3386 9717 3390 9720
      3389 9723 3385 9726 3388 9730 3382 9738
      3382 9743 3385 9747 3405 9720 3395 9693
      3393 9698 3386 9699 3380 9709 3374 9708
      3372 9715

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             BURNEYVILLE             33.90N 97.28W
04/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       LOVE               OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN
            BURNEYVILLE.

&&

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
734 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

OKZ046-051-240100-
MARSHALL OK-CARTER OK-
734 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHEAST CARTER AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES.

AT 734 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LEBANON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3399 9693 3401 9693 3401 9697 3407 9697
      3407 9707 3413 9717 3419 9684 3418 9667
      3408 9654 3407 9655 3397 9690

CJS