Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Norman, OK

317 
WWUS54 KOUN 241848
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
148 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKC051-241930-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110424T1930Z/
GRADY OK-
148 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN GRADY COUNTY...

AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSH SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ACME...AGAWAM...ALEX...BRADLEY...
  MIDDLEBERG...NINNEKAH AND RUSH SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3470 9809 3484 9807 3512 9772 3485 9767
      3468 9791 3469 9799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 235DEG 40KT 3480 9790

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH ROOM FOR OPTIMISM. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW LOCAL
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY OVER S OK AND N TX CLOSER
TO THE SFC FRONT... OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL N OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT. CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO CONSOLIDATE CLOSER TO THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THEN
WILL INCREASE AGAIN N OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-STEADY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO SOME DROUGHT
STRICKEN AREAS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. NEW
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY...HAS FORMED
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH OTHER STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOWERED HIGHS
OVER CENTRAL...WEST CENTRAL SOUTHWEST OK BUT HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF FA. LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT
EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

AVIATION...LITTLE LARGE SCALE CHANGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN AN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. UNTIL THEN...MOISTURE
LIFTING THROUGH A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE WILL YIELD PERIODS OF RAIN
AND THUNDER. DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH EACH ROUND OF RAIN...BUT USED NAM/GFS
LIFT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GET AT THE TIMING. FORECAST IS FOR
NEXT WAVE OF STORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER WAVE AFTER DARK SUNDAY NIGHT.
WENT A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CEILINGS...MAINLY MVFR...BUT DO
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEREVER GREATER RAIN
AMOUNTS OCCUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT ARCING FROM SE
OK INTO SW TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING NE OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AIDED BY INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OVER N TX/SW OK
BEFORE LIFTING NEWD INTO MO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SHIFT
MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT TOWARD SERN PARTS OF THE FA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG JET MAX MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN SEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER N TX/SWRN OK WITH WARM FRONT EASTWARD
NEAR RED RIVER AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO TX BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD AS UPPER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY AFFECT SE PARTS OF THE FA. THIS SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF THE BY TUESDAY EVENING AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND
FRONT SURGES BACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWER/TSTMS
MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA BENEATH
COOL AIR ALOFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
EXITING UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MORE MARGINAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AND UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FARTHER
NORTH.

 &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  62  74  51 /  80  80  40  10
HOBART OK         61  59  74  46 /  60  60  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  64  82  54 /  60  50  20  10
GAGE OK           63  50  68  43 /  20  60  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     63  56  68  45 /  80  90  60  20
DURANT OK         82  66  82  58 /  80  60  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BENJAMIN TEXAS...
TO SNYDER... TO OKARCHE... TO PERRY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND VEGETATION FROM
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ARDMORE TO COALGATE LINE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT
MIDDAY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF STORMS WAS
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF LIFT NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT...
LOCATED FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO ATOKA AT NOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
MOVING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED NORTH OF THE FRONT... BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GREATER RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...
WILL BE IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT... FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE FRONT... IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY
EVENING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY APR 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY... MAINLY IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTHEASTWARD.  THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT... BEFORE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY... MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ON MONDAY... A DRYLINE OR PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE POSSIBILITY OF
WILDFIRES WILL BE INCREASED IF THIS HAPPENS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ028>030-241530-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-CLEVELAND OK-MCCLAIN OK-
1010 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND...MCCLAIN AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

AT 1010 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN NORMAN TO 8 MILES WEST OF WAYNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3492 9708 3486 9745 3487 9750 3525 9736
      3541 9696

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ028-029-241630-
CLEVELAND OK-MCCLAIN OK-
1117 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND AND MCCLAIN
COUNTIES.

AT 1116 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER COLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORMAN...LAKE
THUNDERBIRD AND STELLA OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3514 9714 3503 9760 3523 9768 3525 9767
      3536 9720

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

OKZ038-044-241815-
COTTON OK-COMANCHE OK-
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE AND COTTON
COUNTIES.

AT 1248 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FAXON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM MAY TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF LAWTON WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3466 9835 3450 9817 3430 9848 3444 9862

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
119 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             2 W GERONIMO            34.48N 98.42W
04/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM     HAIL             4 SE LAWTON             34.56N 98.37W
04/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SE 60TH AND WOODLAWN. REPORTED BY KSWO

&&

FM