Severe Thunderstorm Warning 606, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONTEMPLATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, BUT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
NOW. OTHERWISE, POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY OR HIGHER IN AREAS
EAST OF I-35 FOR TUESDAY SINCE THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CLEAR
EARLY TUESDAY WITH CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA SUBJECT TO AN
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  60  64  37  57 /  90  40  10  10
HOBART OK         54  62  32  58 /  70  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  72  39  59 /  80  30  10  10
GAGE OK           44  49  29  55 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     58  63  35  54 /  90  60  10  10
DURANT OK         62  73  42  59 /  80  70  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 AM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE AREA MOST AT RISK IS WEST OF SEILING...WEATHERFORD...LAWTON AND
WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 2 PM
UNTIL 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND ROOFTOPS FROM LARGE HAIL. THE LARGEST
HAIL MAY BE GREATER THAN TWO INCHES DIAMETER.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS EXISTS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW WARMER SURFACE AIR TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
ENERGY TO ALLOW STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL MID-EVENING. THE WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE RISK OF TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
PERSONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS SHOULD
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION. IN
ADDITION TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL.

DURING THE EVENING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL THEN BECOME HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY NOV 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS UNTIL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LIMITED FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

OKZ011-012-017-018-072215-
BLAINE OK-GARFIELD OK-KINGFISHER OK-MAJOR OK-
347 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE...GARFIELD...
KINGFISHER AND MAJOR COUNTIES.

AT 348 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OKEENE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3645 9809 3620 9783 3602 9835 3616 9848

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
401 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 N SNYDER              34.67N 98.95W
11/07/2011  E2.00 INCH       KIOWA              OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CMARTIN