Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SCNTRL OK AND ALSO
IN FAR NCNTRL OK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTAB AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WATCH
IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. TODAY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EWD AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  86  68  90 /  40  30  50  30
HOBART OK         69  90  64  92 /  30  30  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  90  70  96 /  40  30  20  30
GAGE OK           62  89  62  84 /  20  20  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     72  82  65  82 /  50  50  70  30
DURANT OK         70  86  71  88 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO
WATONGA... TO HOBART OKLAHOMA TO VERNON AND BENJAMIN TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE. BY MID AFTERNOON... THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ROUGHLY FROM PONCA
CITY... TO OKLAHOMA CITY... TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA TO WICHITA FALLS AND
SEYMOUR TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS... WIND GUSTS OVER
70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AS THIS OCCURS... WITH THE AID OF AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET... ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO POSE A SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
DAY-TO-DAY AREA AND DEGREE OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS OR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
DEVELOP AND MOVE... THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
MONDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             SPRINGER                34.31N 97.14W
05/22/2011  E2.75 INCH       CARTER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0529 PM     HAIL             GENE AUTRY              34.28N 97.04W
05/22/2011  E2.75 INCH       CARTER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             8 S DAVIS               34.39N 97.12W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       MURRAY             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

TXZ089-090-222300-
CLAY TX-ARCHER TX-
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER AND CLAY COUNTIES.

AT 538 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT TO 34 MILES WEST OF SHANNON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. IF THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR STORMS THREATEN YOU.

LAT...LON 3340 9894 3350 9890 3363 9809 3364 9797
      3346 9798 3347 9840 3339 9842

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             DOUGHERTY               34.40N 97.05W
05/22/2011  E2.50 INCH       MURRAY             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EM