Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
142 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN. FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
TIME CONSTRAINTS FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT TO THE REGION CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL ALSO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL MAINTAIN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF THE FA INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AND/OR END
FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS THE
REGION AND BEFORE THE NEXT ONE APPROACHES THE AREA.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
LIKELY CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS
OF THE FA. THIS ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUES AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY GET SOME RAIN BUT MOST OF
THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  48  74  50  68 /  20  20  50  20
HOBART OK         45  73  45  71 /  10  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  80  49  75 /  10  10  20  10
GAGE OK           38  69  45  68 /  10  30  50  10
PONCA CITY OK     40  67  45  64 /  20  20  80  40
DURANT OK         59  79  56  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
458 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL JET AND TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRONG
WIND SHEAR THAT WILL YIELD A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS OR LARGER ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE RICH FEED OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS THE DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG LIFT. ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WILL ARRIVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY REACH OTHER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
449 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             MARTHA                  34.73N 99.39W
04/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN THE MARTHA AREA.

&&

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

OKZ036-252215-
JACKSON OK-
457 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JACKSON COUNTY.

AT 456 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DUKE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH. A SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED IN FAR NORTHEAST JACKSON
COUNTY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3472 9961 3473 9943 3472 9925 3452 9935
      3463 9966 3465 9966

MAXWELL

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